Jul 25, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers Steve Garvey was honored during pregame ceremonies for the 40th anniversary of the 1981 World Series team at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
There’s increasing interest in the Hall of Fame Era committees. Earlier this month, the Golden Days committee elected Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Miñoso and Tony Oliva, worthy candidates all. I just wished there had been room for Dick Allen and Ken Boyer, but perhaps in five years, when the Golden Days committee again convenes, they can be added.
Between now and 2026, two other committees: Today’s Game, which considers candidates whose careers spanned from 1988 through the present, and Modern Baseball, which looks at candidates whose primes were from 1970-1987, will meet twice.
Here are my 10 candidates for these committees to consider:
Dwight Evans
Evans was an outstanding rightfielder for the Boston Red Sox from 1972-1990, and finished his career with the Orioles in 1991.
While Evans hit only .270, he had a .370 on-base percentage and led the American League in walks three times. His .402 OBP in 1982 led the league as well, and while OPS wasn’t a consideration when he played, he twice led the AL with a .937 OPS in 1981 and .920 in 1984.
He was a better power hitter than you remember, hitting 385 home runs, three more than his teammate, Jim Rice, who is in the Hall.
Evans won seven Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers.
His WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 67.1 was better than Rice’s 47.7, and about the same as Roberto Alomar (67.0), Ernie Banks (67.7) and Ryne Sandberg (67.9).
Evans never received more than 10.4 percent (1998) in any of the three years he was on the BBWAA ballot. Seventy-five percent is needed for election.
Steve Garvey
While readers often chide me for using WAR to vouch for Hall of Fame candidates, Garvey’s case has seemingly been hurt by his relatively poor WAR.
Let’s look at the non-analytical case for Garvey. He had 2,599 hits, had 200 or more hits six times, leading the National League twice. He had more than 100 RBIs five times.
Garvey was a 10-time All-Star, won the Most Valuable Player in 1974 and was a Gold Glove winner at first base four times.
He was arguably the best player, or at least a key player, on five World Series teams. In those pre-wild card days, each of the five teams Garvey played on that reached the National League Championship Series won.
His postseason average was .338 with a .910 OPS, and he hit 11 postseason home runs.
Garvey’s WAR was only 38.6 and, though he won those four Gold Gloves, he was criticized for his lack of defensive range and had a -11.6 Defensive WAR.
In his 15 times on the BBWAA ballot, Garvey peaked in 1995 at 42.6 percent.
Bobby Grich
Infielders are underrepresented in the Hall, and Grich is one of two second basemen who should be in Cooperstown.
Grich played 17 years in the major leagues, his first seven with the Orioles and 10 with the California Angels.
Grich and Evans tied for the lead in home runs with 22 in the strike-shortened 1981 season, a year in which he also led in slugging with .543. But that’s the only year he led in an offensive category.
A six-time All-Star, a four-time Gold Glove winner and a Silver Slugger winner in 1981, Grich never got any real consideration for the Hall of Fame. He received just 2.6 percent of the vote in 1992, his only time on the ballot.
Grich hit only 30 home runs and drove in more than 100 once, in 1979, and had 1,833 hits and 224 home runs, numbers that didn’t help his cause.
Grich’s WAR was 71.0, better than Ryne Sandberg’s.
Ralph Houk
Houk technically could be considered by the Golden Days committee, but he managed throughout the 1970s and through 1984. His problem was that he won too early in his managing career and not enough later.
He succeeded Casey Stengel as New York Yankees manager and won the World Series in 1961 and 1962. The Yankees were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1963. For the rest of his career, he never managed another postseason team.
Houk managed 11 years in two iterations for the Yankees, five years for Detroit and four in Boston. He was never was fired.
His 1,619 wins are 20th in history, but his winning percentage of .514 is lower than all but three Hall of Fame managers.
Tommy John
Tommy John began pitching in the majors when John F. Kennedy was president, and his 26-season career ended in the early months of the George H.W. Bush presidency in 1989.
John’s 288-231 record and 3.34 ERA are remarkably similar to Jim Kaat’s numbers. John had a better WAR (61.6 to Kaat’s 50.5), and had an elbow surgery named after him.
John never came close to winning election. His 31.7 percent in 2009 came in his 15th and final year of eligibility.
Kenny Lofton
Lofton played for 11 teams, but he’s best remembered for his prime years with Cleveland. He led the American League in steals in five straight seasons (1992-1996), stealing 75 in ’96. Lofton’s 622 stolen bases rank 15th all-time.
Oriole fans will remember how Lofton tortured them during those exciting duels in the ’90s. In 98 games against the Orioles, Lofton hit .339 and had an .878 OPS.
In his career, Lofton hit .299 but his lack of power (130 homers in 17 years) hurt him in Hall of Fame voting. He received just 3.2 percent of the vote in 2013, his only year on the ballot.
Lofton’s WAR was a Hall of Fame-worthy 68.4, and his four Gold Gloves were reflected in his 15.5 defensive WAR.
Thurman Munson
Munson’s career was tragically cut short when he was killed in a plane crash in 1979.
Because of his early death at 32, Munson played only 11 seasons for the Yankees. He was Rookie of the Year in 1970, Most Valuable Player in 1979, and a seven-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover.
Munson played concurrently with two Hall of Fame catchers, Johnny Bench and Carlton Fisk, and still managed to get a 46.1 WAR despite the shortness of his career.
Because of his premature death, he was put on the ballot immediately and received 15.5 percent in 1981, his first year, and never topped that in 15 years.
Dale Murphy
Murphy won consecutive MVPs in 1982 and 1983. A seven-time All-Star, Murphy won the Gold Glove five times as an outfielder, and he won four Silver Sluggers for the Atlanta Braves.
The knock against Murphy, one of baseball’s most admired players, is that his numbers tumbled once he turned 32. He ended his career with 398 home runs. He hit .265 with an .815 OPS, but his WAR of 46.5 is considered low for a power-hitting outfielder.
Murphy’s best year in the BBWAA voting was 2000 when he received 23.2 percent of the vote.
An outspoken opponent of steroid use, Murphy stated his case in 2012 to The New York Times: “You can argue that they weren’t testing back then, but none of this stuff was done in public,” Murphy said. “Everybody knew it was against the law or against the rules of the game. That’s why it was done in secret.”
Graig Nettles
There are 17 third basemen in the Hall of Fame, fewer than any other position. Because Nettles, who played 22 years in the majors, overlapped with George Brett, Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt, he’s been overlooked.
A four-time All-Star whose best years came with the New York Yankees from 1974-1983, Nettles won just two Gold Gloves, but hit 390 home runs.
He hit only .248, but because of a stellar 21.4 defensive WAR, Nettles had an overall WAR of 67.9, which is Hall of Fame territory.
His 1978 defensive heroics in the World Series rival those of Robinson’s, but because he played on the same teams as Munson and Reggie Jackson, he’s been overlooked.
Nettles never polled higher than 8.3 percent in the Hall of Fame voting.
Lou Whitaker
There is no more deserving player who’s not in the Hall of Fame than Whitaker. No controversy, no scandal.
Ryne Sandberg, whose numbers are eerily similar, was voted into the Hall but Whitaker polled just 2.4 percent in 2001, his only time on the ballot.
Whitaker won four Silver Sluggers as a second baseman, three Gold Gloves and was a five-time All-Star.
The Era committees elected Whitaker’s Tigers teammates Jack Morris and Alan Trammell, and now it’s time for Whitaker, who had a 75.1 WAR, to join them.
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Can’t say I disagree with any of these. All too often HOF is cheapened by some additions, these only add to the meaning of HOF.
My initial votes would go to Whitaker, Lofton, John, and Garvey. After reading your write up I am convinced that Evans and Nettles were overlooked.
I would support every one of these men. These were the stars of my youth, back when games weren't on TV every night and analytics weren't available, we knew they were among the best at their positions and difference makers on the field. (Damn, I sound old).
Abso-freaking-lutely on Dale Murphy. Can't understand what's taking so long.
Grich maybe .. yeah sure .. why not?
Whitaker just to make Rich Happy ...
Garvey and Dewey are both juuuuussst a bit outside ...
And no flippin' way on Nettles If you're going to represent the Yankees in the HOF, you can't bat a measley .248.
The others are worth mentioning.
Besides that .. HAPPY FESTIVUS Everyone!
Garvey would definitely make the hall of getting around!
Mazeroski is laughable!
If Mazeroski is in, Grich should be in.
Happy FESTUS!
Uncle?…go O’s…
Rich, thanks for the interesting discussion of these players ... I would rate Evans, Garvey, Murphy, and Whitaker most deserving from your list.
As for WAR, I don't claim to have a clear understanding of the algebraic formulas involved ... but I am inherently skeptical of any measurement that ranks Curt Schilling above Jim Palmer, Juan Marichal and Sandy Koufax, and that ranks Bobby Grich above Tony Gwynn, Ernie Banks and Eddie Murray.
Joel, Koufax, who I believe was the greatest pitcher of my lifetime is penalized because his career was relatively short, and he was dominating in only six seasons while he wasn't very good in the other six.
WAR tries to take both offense and defense in consideration. If it was a purely offensive stat, Grich would rank below Gwynn, Banks and Murray, but his defense was superior and theirs wasn't.
Rich ....
You struck the nail on the head regarding WAR when you say that it attempts to consider offense and defense together. The problem with that is how do you quantify which is more important (O or D)? Just exactly how much more important is one side of the ball than the other? The answer is …YOU CAN'T…mathematically at least. With WAR, that balance is determined subjectively by the formula's creator or creators. Very subjective. Furthermore, that formula would in all reality change from player to player, position to position,ball field to ball field. If you're going to use math to make a determination such as this, use MATH, not some MIT grads opinion embedded in a logarithm. Batting avg, Homers, RBIs, fielding percentages.... those are real and exact numbers. Outside an occasional shaky scoring decision, they are indisputable. And mathematics dictates that even those errant scoring decisions will even out over time.
Personally, I'd say that offense (with acceptions) should be about 85-90% of the equation. Again...dependent on the player and the position that would vary. I'm sure that the guys that came up with the WAR logarithms would disagree with me. So there is the argument … who’s right?
Give me the numbers from the box scores. Real math. Let me watch a few games, and I don’t feel as though WAR is telling much more that what my eye test does.
I am starting to think games in April aren't as important as games in August after reading this post BRR...WAR hating during the holiday season is not a good look. Hopefully Santa brings you a stats book...
What is it good for? ABSOLUTELY NOTHIN'
Ken, fielding percentage isn’t a great stat. It doesn’t measure range. If you have little range and field the balls you get to, you have a higher fielding percentage than a player with better range and gets to more balls who makes an occasional error.
Rich,I do understand what you're saying. Fld Pctg isn't everything. Like I said, you gotta mix those numbers in with the eye test. I don't need stat cast to see guys like Kiermaier, Junior and Ozzie had superior fielding range, but I'm not going to give a guy a break because he may have run 20 feet further than the average player. If he gets to the ball, he needs to catch the ball, and he needs to make the throw.
Does WAR somehow factor in a players range mathematically? I'm more than sure it uses Fld pctg.
One last thought on this ... if fielding percentage is not a great/telling stat, then Brooks Robinson is just a run of the mill third basemen.
Boog, I’ve said that multiple times regarding range, no one ever made a return comment, because someone can’t get to a ball that others can should have an effect on their “rating”, but it apparently does, even though us baseball guys can use the eye test to decide who’s better…go O’s…
Am I understanding you to say there there IS a range factor in the WAR algorithm?
Seems to me that we are running the real risk of lowering/diluting the very high standards for entry into Cooperstown.
We have to be very careful about allowing this to happen. Entry into Baseball's Hall of Fame is not a popularity contest. There is a very big difference between the Hall-of-Very Good and the Hall-of-Fame...
None of the names proferred above deserve serious consideration for entry into the Baseball HOF. None.
This will become a bigger and bigger threat as time goes on. Our younger generations tend to clearly exhibit a startling and unapologetic ignorance and lack of knowledge about what has occurred in the World before their time.
Mike, why should Ryne Sandberg be in the Hall of Fame while Lou Whitaker isn't? Their careers are nearly identical.
The Era committees are made up of Hall of Fame players, baseball executives and a handful of media members. The committee that voted on the Hodges, Minoso, Kaat and Oliva picks was almost exclusively comprised of people OVER 65. That was also true for those who considered the candidates from Black baseball.
Rich.
You have hit the nail on the head; Sandburg is very borderline.
Harold Baines should not be in the HOF either. Not even close.
Phil Rizzuto’s inclusion is laughable.
There are always going to be weak members. Bringing in more doesn’t solve the exclusivity problem.
I think Whitaker would be a stronger candidate than Jim Rice, for example, but his greatness wasn’t appreciated by the electorate 20 years ago.
Too late, Morris and Baines are already in!
standards diluted long ago.
I’m one of “those” who likes to reserve HOF status for the greats of the game, not the goods of the game. But I really enjoy these lists from Rich because they take me back to the good ole days when you could name most of the starters on every team. That said, I’m all in on Garvey, John and Murphy. Nettles was pumped by the NY media and would have been an also ran if he played for a team like Detroit or Cleveland. Munson and Sweet Lou are on the edge for me but I’d defer to Rich’s good judgement on them. The rest - not so much.
Tx, your comment on Nettles was interesting. I never really considered him until now, but his defensive stats are compelling.
You are absolutely correct in that he wouldn’t be in the running if he played on an also-ran because postseason performances are vital to a player’s candidacy.
Someone who didn’t often play for winning teams—Ernie Banks, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry—but had excellent individual statistics gets in, but players who helped their team get in and played with other excellent players, Garvey, Whitaker, John, Lofton, Gil Hodges, Kirby Puckett see their candidacies elevated.
Nettles wouldn’t have had those excellent stats with Cleveland or Detroit because the players around wouldn’t have been as good and he wouldn’t have played in the postseason.
Puckett is in the Hall because he was the difference in two Twins’ World Series wins.
Piniella was a finalist a few years ago on an Era committee, but that was as a manager, not as a player.
Grich and Whittaker probably get in next year ( or should). Lofton is kind of like Tim Raines, becomes more appreciated as the years go on. If Jim Kaat gets in , so should Tommy John. He should be known for more than just a surgery. The others are borderline especially Munson, who sadly never got to finish his career. The one I find intriguing is Garvey. When he was with the Dodgers and his first few years in San Diego he seemed a shoo in. They named schools after him. He was even considered a future US Senator. Then after he retired, he had 2 nasty paternity scandals. Kind of hurt his Mr Clean image. Don’t know if that hurt him with voters , but it took the luster off his wholesome image. Definitely hurt his Senate chances
No way on Nettles!!! His 390 home runs are a joke in old Yank stadium 295 ft. porch down the right field line and his suspension for ten days on Sep 7, 1974 after stuffing his bat with six super balls. So between his illegal bat and the porch at Yank stadium - No Way - who knows how long he was using that illegal bat and started using another.
A case could be made for Thurman Munson since he did win and have the same accolades as - Rookie of the Year (1970), Most Valuable Player (1979) as Bench, and was a seven-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover. And you certainly can't blame him on playing in Yank stadium for the death valley and where homers go to die. And you certainly can't blame him on longevity since the man upstairs came calling.
And a case could be made for Lou Whitaker per his stats and possibly Bobby Grich for the same.
On the one hand, if it’s been this long, I don’t think anybody’s been overlooked. These list of been raked over for decades now. Time and time again, enormous numbers of voters have said no. At some point we have to have a cut off don’t we? Eventually it’s going to be everybody I had a baseball card of when I was a kid is going to be in the Hall of Fame. I can already see myself in a nursing home watching Biff Pocoroba’s great-grandchildren giving his acceptance speech. All because five nostalgic Atlanta Braves fans demanded it.
Show me the biggest one here is Kenny Lofton. That guy really did tear it up for the first six or seven years of his career. At the very least he should’ve gotten a heck of a lot more votes than he ever did. I’m not bothered necessarily that he didn’t make it. But it should at least have been close. Instead he got next to nothing. I mean he got minimal levels of votes like you’d expect Sam Horn or Ruben Rivera to get.
Or Drungo Hazewood and Chito Martinez!
Chito had a great HR/AB rate. As I recall a good OPS+ too. If he played today he’d have gotten a lot more chances.
Absollutely!
Rich, I’ve always considered myself more like Baltimore Castaway in that I believe there’s a big difference between, as he stated, a Hall of very good, and a Hall of Fame. But I gotta say you make a compelling case for all those you listed. After reading your column and doing some research I’ve come to the conclusion that there are 3 you mentioned that I would be fine with putting them in Cooperstown. They are Garvey, Murphy and Whittaker. Garvey because of 10 AS games, an MVP, 4 GG’s and post season success. Murphy for 2 MVPs7 AS games and 5 GGs. Whitaker, I gotta say, I was shocked at comparing his stats with his teammate Trammell who is already enshrined. Lou had 4 more hits, 2369 to 2365, 59 more HRs, 244 to 185, 81 more RBIs, 1084 to 1003 and a higher WAR 75.1 to 70.7. Excellent work Rich, yet another reason I enjoy off season reading over reading about loss after loss during the season.
Thank you, Dave, but I’m looking forward to the end of the lockout.
Boog and Baylor belong in the Hall Of Very Good, Garvey is in the same class.
Can't say NO too many times. Build a Hall of Good in Hoboken.
Question for anybody who’d like to respond:
Since there is so much disagreement about who belongs in the HoF and who doesn’t, do you think there should be some criteria that must be met to gain entry? If so, what? I believe, to the best of my knowledge, that every player with 500 HRs, 3000 hits and 300 wins is in. Problem there is I’m sure we’ll never see another 300 game winner and with smaller parks many more 500 HR hitters probably. Also, those are only offensive stats. I believe superior defensive players who didn’t necessarily have incredible offensive stats deserve serious consideration. For example, I absolutely believe Omar Vizquel should be a lock for HoF. I’d hate to think that because only 80 of his 2877 hits were HRs he’d fall short.
Vizquel might be inducted at a Silver or Bronze level once my great idea of multi-level HOF induction is accepted; his stats aren't quite up there with other SS in the HOF
Vizquel (42nd):
45.6 career WAR | 26.8 7yr-peak WAR | 36.2 JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162
Average HOF SS (out of 23):
67.7 career WAR | 43.2 7yr-peak WAR | 55.5 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
Dave, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens all have more than 500 home runs and 300 wins and aren't in. Nor is Pete Rose. We know the reasons they're not in. Vizquel's disgusting behavior--the charges of domestic violence by his estranged wife--and the sexual harassment charge against him by a minor league bat boy--have made his election in the near future unlikely.
Three level of HOF'ers: Gold Silver Bronze; first thing is to official rank the current HOF'ers into the three layers (yes, there will be tears - sorry Mazeroski, you're Bronze level). Then, only the primary annual vote garners a Gold level induction (still need 75%). Era committee(s) selections will be designated Silver or Bronze inductees, with inductees who reached at least 66.67% for at least one year during their primary voting period inducted at the Silver level, all others inducted at the Bronze level. There you go, Bob's your uncle!
WDIB, I enthusiastically endorse your 3 level Hall of Fame! Would it be criteria based? If so, what do you do with a guy like Koufax? He has only 165 wins so I’d assume that wouldn’t earn him gold level status yet many consider him one of the greatest pitchers of all time.
Make it four levels, pyrite for the steroid boys…go O’s….
What did Bobby Grich do to get black balled by the BBWAA? Look at these stats please!
Grich (8th):
71.0 career WAR | 46.4 7yr-peak WAR | 58.7 JAWS | 5.7 WAR/162
Average HOF 2B (out of 20):
69.7 career WAR | 44.5 7yr-peak WAR | 57.1 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162
Joe, WAR wasn't in use in 1992, the only year Grich came up for election. Use of statistics other than the counting numbers is an excellent argument for the Era committees.
Bobby Grich ... in a 17 year career, only hit over 20 home runs twice ... only had over 65 RBI twice ...did not get 2,000 hits ... a .266 career BA ... a good, consistent player, but no way a HOFer
yes... maybe a Hall-of-Very-good Player...not completely sure but a good candidate for that.
Bellinger, 17 million for batting .160?!?! I remember in 1972, Al Kaline turned down a raise to $100,000, said he did not have a good enough year to deserve it!
I am very wary of too many guys getting into the Hall of Fame. It is getting to the point where it has become the Hall of the Pretty Good. To me, Ralph Houk is not a Hall of Famer. He presided over the end of the Yankees' dynasty. But what else did he do? Longevity is nice but success is more important.
Lou Whitaker is a mystery to me. During his time, he was the best second baseman in the A.L. The fact that Trammell has made it really makes me wonder.
The greatest thing about the Baseball Hall of Fame is we can argue about it. This is in contrast to the Football Hall of Fame where 30 people go into a room and decide who is in.
Danno, the Basketball Hall of Fame is worse. You don’t even know who votes.
But at least they vote…lol…go O’s…