Believe it or not, there are fewer than two weeks before spring training begins.
Orioles pitchers and catchers will report to the Ed Smith Stadium complex in Sarasota, Fla., on Feb. 13. A day later, they’ll start workouts. Position players are due to report a few days after that (Feb. 18), with the first full-squad workout scheduled for Feb. 19.
It seems like 2017 just ended, but the 2018 season will be here before we know it.
The Orioles are coming off their first, last-place finish since it happened in four straight seasons from 2008 to 2011. They still need to fill several holes before the first pitch of the regular season is thrown against the Minnesota Twins on March 29 at Camden Yards.
Naturally, fans look to the minor leagues as a way to solve the club’s problems.
While the Orioles likely won’t receive much national recognition for the current depth of their organization, some of the top prospects could fit into the club’s plans at the major-league level in 2018. And beyond that, several younger players could do so down the road.
Earlier this year, Baseball America released its Top 100 prospects list. For the first time since 2014, the Orioles had three players on the list – outfielder Austin Hays (No. 21), catcher Chance Sisco (No. 68) and third baseman Ryan Mountcastle (No. 71).
My colleague Dan Connolly recently asked BaltimoreBaseball.com readers about which Orioles’ prospects they’re most excited to watch in the major leagues. Today, I hope to give you a little bit more guidance on some players who could fit that role in the coming years.
I’m talking about my preliminary 2018 “Dean’s Dozen” rankings. In the following pages, you’ll find the 12 players who I believe are at the top of the organization right now.
It’s important to note that the Top 4 – the three players mentioned earlier and right-hander Hunter Harvey – stand out from the rest of the list. Beyond that, I considered many different orders of the final eight prospects before settling on these rankings. I also thought about placing a handful of other players near the bottom of the list.
Before the minor-league season begins in early April, I plan to re-evaluate my rankings. If any of these players make the Orioles out of spring training – I’m looking at Hays and Sisco, for the most part – then I’ll adjust accordingly. And if other minor leaguers cause a stir heading into the regular season, I’ll have to find a spot for them on the list.
With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the updated Dean’s Dozen rankings:
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
No. 1: Austin Hays, OF
2017 Statistics: .329, 32 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 2Bs in 128 games (minors); .217, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 3 2Bs in 20 games (Orioles)
A year ago, the 2016 third-round pick ranked as an intriguing yet unproven prospect. But Hays, 22, catapulted to the top of the organizational rankings with a dominant 2017 season. After hitting .328 with 16 home runs and 41 RBIs in 64 games with Frederick, he somehow did even better at Bowie. In 64 games with the Baysox, Hays batted .330 with 16 homers and 54 RBIs. The club’s no-brainer choice as the Brooks Robinson Minor League Player of the Year only hit .217 and struck out 16 times in 20 games during his first taste of the major leagues in September. But that’s an extremely small sample size. He’s easily the best of the club’s prospects. Hays isn’t a lock to start 2018 with the Orioles, but that’s where I’d put him.
Photo credit: Terrance Williams
No. 2: Ryan Mountcastle, 3B/SS
2017 Statistics: .314, 15 HRs, 47 RBIs, 35 2Bs in 88 games (Frederick); .222, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs, 13 2Bs in 39 games (Bowie)
The biggest uncertainty around the 2015 first-round selection (36th overall) remains what position he’ll play over the long term. Mountcastle again excelled at the plate in 2017. He batted .287 with 18 home runs, 62 RBIs and 48 doubles in 127 games between Frederick and Bowie. In the Arizona Fall League, Mountcastle only hit .244. But he finished tied for second on the Salt River Rafters with 14 RBIs and seven extra-base hits (four doubles, three home runs). Mountcastle, who will turn 21 this month, will start 2018 in Bowie.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
No. 3: Chance Sisco, C
2017 Statistics: .267, 7 HRs, 47 RBIs, 23 2Bs in 97 games (Norfolk); .333, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs, 2 2Bs in 10 games (Orioles)
The 2013 second-round pick ranked slightly ahead of Mountcastle in Baseball America’s Top 100 list. You’ll notice that I put Sisco, who will turn 23 in February, a notch lower in my rankings. That speaks more to Mountcastle’s performance in 2017 and higher upside, in my opinion, than anything else. Sisco, who was No. 57 on Baseball America’s list before the start of the 2017 season, made his long-awaited major-league debut in September. He struggled early in the year for Norfolk before batting .319 in June and July. Depending on what the Orioles do before Opening Day, he could be the backup to Caleb Joseph.
Photo credit: Patrick Cavey
No. 4: Hunter Harvey, RHP
2017 Statistics: 0-1, 0.96 ERA, 30 Ks, 6 BBs in 18 2/3 innings (minors)
Harvey, 23, finally appears to be healthy after battling several injuries over the past three-plus seasons. Last summer, the 2013 first-round selection (22nd overall) made eight starts across three levels – Rookie-level GCL Orioles, Short-A Aberdeen, and Low-A Delmarva. Although he hasn’t suffered any setbacks, I still believe the Orioles should take things slowly. The club should start Harvey at a lower level – he has never pitched above Delmarva – and let him progress through the system. Having said that, he could debut in the major leagues later in the year – or perhaps even in April if the Orioles throw caution aside.
Photo credit: Bert Hindman
No. 5: Cedric Mullins, OF
2017 Statistics: .265, 13 HRs, 37 RBIs, 19 2Bs in 76 games (Bowie)
In an injury-plagued season, the 2015 13th-round pick still managed to have 33 extra-base hits in 76 games for the Baysox. Mullins, 23, hit .367 with four home runs, five doubles and 11 RBIs in 14 games in April before he strained his left hamstring and missed the next six weeks. He reinjured the hamstring again in July. Mullins wasn’t fully healthy for a good part of 2017, so that’s probably why he only had nine stolen bases. That should change this season. I’m still bullish on Mullins’ future. He’ll likely start the year at Norfolk.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
No. 6: Tanner Scott, LHP
2017 Statistics: 0-2, 2.22 ERA, 87 Ks, 46 BBs in 69 innings (Bowie); 0-0, 10.80 ERA, 2 Ks, 2 BBs in 1 2/3 innings (Orioles)
I’m still not sold that Scott, 23, can consistently produce at the major-league level. Sure, Double-A hitters only batted .188 in 69 innings against the 2014 sixth-round selection last season. But he needs to cut down on the free passes – 145 walks in 198 2/3 professional innings. Scott has plenty of supporters within the organization, though. And 100-mph heat doesn’t grow on every tree in Prospect City USA – especially in the Orioles’ part of town. That’s why I’m cautiously putting Scott at No. 6 in my rankings to start 2018. He’ll likely begin the year with three-inning stints at Norfolk. We’ll see where he goes from there.
Photo credit: Dan Connolly
No. 7: DL Hall, LHP
2017 Statistics: 0-0, 6.97 ERA, 12 Ks, 10 BBs in 10 1/3 innings (GCL Orioles)
Overall, the Orioles’ 2017 first-round pick (21st overall) didn’t dominate during his first professional action. Hall, 19, posted a 6.97 ERA in five August starts for the club’s Gulf Coast League affiliate. Still, most of the damage came in his final game. On Aug. 29 against the GCL Red Sox, Hall was charged with four hits, three walks and four earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. Before that performance, he had a respectable 3.72 ERA. Of course, as many fans know, it’s not about wins and losses at this stage of the game. Hall’s career progression will likely continue at Delmarva to start the 2018 season.
Photo credit: Patrick Cavey
No. 8: DJ Stewart, OF
2017 Statistics: .278, 21 HRs, 79 RBIs, 26 2Bs, 20 SBs in 126 games (Bowie)
The 2015 first-round selection (25th overall) broke through with the Baysox in 2017. Stewart, 24, was one of only 10 players in the minor leagues with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases last season. He also had a career-high 26 doubles. Although Stewart hasn’t moved up as quickly as some Orioles fans probably would have liked for someone who was drafted out of a major college program (Florida State), he’s steadily climbing the ladder. We’ll see if Stewart can build on the momentum this season. He’ll begin at Norfolk.
Photo credit: Patrick Cavey
No. 9: Keegan Akin, LHP
2017 Statistics: 7-8, 4.14 ERA, 111 Ks, 46 BBs in 100 innings (Frederick)
Akin, who will turn 23 on April 1, struggled mightily in the first two months of 2017. Through the end of May, the 2016 second-round pick was 3-4 with a 5.95 ERA in nine starts. He appeared to turn his season around in June with a 3-1 record and 0.90 ERA in five starts. But then Akin went 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA in his final seven starts before he was shut down for the final month of the regular season with an oblique injury. Akin recovered in time to participate in the Arizona Fall League. He went 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. Akin will probably start 2018 in Bowie. My bold prediction: He dominates at that level, moves up to Norfolk by midseason, and makes his major-league debut in September.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
No. 10: Anthony Santander, OF
2017 Statistics: .382, 5 HRs, 14 RBIs, 5 2Bs in 16 games (minors); .267, 0 HRs, 2 RBIs, 3 2Bs in 13 games (Orioles)
The 2016 Rule 5 selection wasn’t on the Orioles’ active roster for the required 90 days last season, so he’ll need to make the team out of spring training – and stay for 44 days — or be returned to the Cleveland Indians. Santander, 23, played in 16 games for the Baysox and Keys last summer before moving up to the majors. He showed some power (five home runs) during his stint with Bowie, but we’ll see how the Venezuela native plays this spring. For now, I’m including Santander in my rankings. That would obviously change if he leaves the organization.
Photo credit: Joey Gardner/Foto Joe Photography
No. 11: Alex Wells, LHP
2017 Statistics: 11-5, 2.38 ERA, 113 Ks, 10 BBs in 140 innings (Delmarva)
The Australia native earned the organization’s Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year award after walking only 10 hitters in 140 innings with the Shorebirds. Wells, who will turn 21 on February 27, didn’t issue any free passes after June 25 – a span of 68 innings. Incredibly, he has only walked 19 batters in 202 2/3 professional innings. Although Wells doesn’t overpower hitters, he proved that he can get outs in Low-A. In 12 starts after last year’s All-Star break, Wells went 7-1 with a 1.80 ERA in 70 innings. He only walked one batter in that span. The Orioles aren’t going to rush Wells. He’ll start the 2018 season at Frederick. We’ll see if he can figure out how to retire hitters at the higher levels.
Photo credit: Patrick Cavey
No. 12: Michael Baumann, RHP
2017 Statistics: 4-2, 1.28 ERA, 43 Ks, 19 BBs in 42 1/3 innings (minors)
The Orioles picked Hays’ former teammate at Jacksonville University in the third round of last summer’s first-year-player draft. Baumann, 22, pitched one scoreless inning in the Gulf Coast League before jumping to Aberdeen. In 10 games (nine starts) with the IronBirds, he only gave up six earned runs. Baumann went 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA in five starts in August. He struck out 24 batters and gave up only 15 hits in 25 2/3 innings in that span. Baumann will remain in a starting role for now – likely at Delmarva to start 2018 – but he could move to the bullpen in the long run. I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with how it shakes out.
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View Comments
Looking at Mountcastle(who I'm up and down on) and Harvey as helpers for 2018/2019. Hays and Sisco are here already. Quick off topic(if you don't mind) question. I see where Milwaukee and Minnesota are big FA players. Tell me how those markets CAN and Baltimore CAN'T.
Keep in mind both had terribly low payrolls last year and in recent years. Much lower than the Orioles. Wouldn’t be surprised if Os is still ahead of the Twins when dust settles.
I'm high on Santander. I understand that he may not be the next coming of Dave Winfield in right field, but give him some time and I'm betting he'll be just fine. No way does he not make the roster coming out of camp this year.
He has to stick for 44 Days. Lots of upside. I think they will weather the 44 Days.
BRR, we agree on a lot of stuff. if they check him off like Delmon Young, I'd be disappointed.
I’d put Santander at least at #6, but other than that *great* list! (Because we agree so much.)
A solid argument can be made for him being higher. All of those in that group have untapped upside.
With Hays, how does "starting his clock" work? If he is on the opening day roster, compared to lets say May, does that "start his clock" earlier, and possibly bump him up a year closer to free agency? With our wait until free agency team philosophy, if waiting until May(hypothetical time) extends us a year, I'd hope we'd wait.
Technically the service time clock stated in September. But that’s basically incidental. If he starts the year with the Orioles he has six full seasons before free agency. If they hold him back a few weeks — at any point — he’d still get that 6th year. The Memorial Day date — roughly — is about arbitration and preventing Super 2 status. Which would save money. Intriguing that Santander needing to stay in the majors and Hays not getting Super 2 coincide around the same time. Just saying. ... But if Hays is absolutely the best guy, I think the Orioles probably will go with him and worry about the other stuff later. We’ll see.
It's nice to see 6 pitchers on this list. However, Tanner Scott despite his velocity, doesn't impress me. If you can't find the plate who cares how hard you throw? I'm much more intrigued by Alex Wells. I hope he continues to develop because it would be refreshing to see a guy who can get hitters out without pushing the limits of the radar gun. As you well know Dan, it's all about pitching. And as much as we've heard about pitchers not wanting to pitch in Camden Yards, if you can make hitters earn their way on base you'll minimize damage. Nothing hurts more than a couple of walks and a three run homer.
Totally agree. I know Dean has struggled with where to put Scott. Upside is huge — but only if he can throw strikes
I like Santanders potential as a hitter a lot. I watched him in the outfield and he wasn't Mark Trumbo but needs work. Aiken reminds a bit of Danny Jackson, which would be a good thing for the Orioles. Harvey would be the story of the year if he were a September call up. I think it would better suit Hayes if he played every day .
Honestly I’d be surprised if we don’t see Harvey in Baltimore in September. If he’s not up, it would mean either he struggles or gets hurt or the Orioles other pitchers have stepped up tremendously. I wouldn’t imagine it will be the latter.