Tap-In: What's the most you'd offer Machado annually to stay? - BaltimoreBaseball.com
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Tap-In: What’s the most you’d offer Machado annually to stay?

Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon


Back-to-back days hanging out at Connolly’s Tap Room.

That’s what happens when a rainout on the road occurs. Besides, this topic seemed, well, topical.

Just about every day this season I’ve received an email or tweet from an Orioles fan expressing the same sentiment:

The club needs to sign Manny Machado now. Or they are going to lose him.

I try to tell people that Machado isn’t a free agent until after the 2018 season, and that it’s not do-or-die situation yet. But no one wants to hear that.

The argument – and it makes perfect sense – is that every day the Orioles wait, and every day the 23-year-old Machado does something amazing, his price goes up while the likelihood of him returning goes down.

That’s a shot of reality that the patrons are doling back at the barkeep.

Things didn’t get easier Monday when the Orioles’ neighbors to the south, the Washington Nationals, reportedly locked up one of their homegrown stars.

According to various reports, the Nationals agreed to a seven-year extension with pending free agent Stephen Strasburg that will pay him $175 million through the length of the deal (which also includes a couple opt-out provisions).

As dominant as Strasburg can be, the 27-year-old hasn’t quite lived up to the crazy expectations placed on him when he was drafted first overall in 2009. He’s topped 200 innings once and his career ERA is 3.06 — excellent, but not other-worldly.

And he pitches; pitchers’ shelf lives and periods of dominance are shorter than position players.

So understand that Machado, whenever he gets his big deal, is likely going to blow that $175 million figure away. If he continues his current trajectory, he’ll be facing free agency at age 26. One can only imagine how much he’ll command on the open market; $30 million per year and/or $250+ million total are within reach.

A player has eclipsed the $250-million-plus bar only three times: Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million deal with the Miami Marlins and Alex Rodriguez’s two, 10-year contracts with the New York Yankees, one for $252 million; one for $275 million. Five major leaguers have netted deals worth $30 million or more annually; Miguel Cabrera is the only hitter on that list.

We don’t have to argue at the Tap Room today whether baseball players are worth that kind of money. They aren’t. No one, anywhere, in any occupation, is. But there are players that will get that kind of money in the near future, because that’s where the market is trending.

And Machado, who looked up to Rodriguez as a young kid in Miami and ultimately became friends with the superstar, is in that conversation.

It would be a lame Tap-In question to ask whether the Orioles should sign Machado before he becomes a free agent. Say no to that, and I’m automatically cutting you off at the bar.

The real question is how much would you pay Machado to stay in Baltimore long-time? How about $25 million per year for eight years or $200 million? My assumption is that may not get it done. Because if Machado stays healthy, he’ll earn way more than that on the open market.

Consider that Robinson Cano, a second baseman, received a 10-year, $240 million, free agent deal from the Seattle Mariners shortly after his 31st birthday. And that was way back in 2013.

Right now, Chris Davis is the highest paid Oriole ever at $23 million a year. Machado likely would crush that number annually if he were to sign an extension.

So I guess my question to you is how much is too much for Machado? What’s your breaking point: $25 million annually, $30 million, $35 million?

I don’t see the Orioles going into that stratosphere; they’ve never been an organization to tie up so much money on one player. But I didn’t think they’d give Davis $161 million over seven years, either (no matter how much is deferred). And Machado is much younger than Davis.

So if it is your wallet, what are you thinking?

Tap-In Question: What would be your take-it-or-leave-it extension offer to Manny Machado?



  1. OsDent

    May 10, 2016 at 7:41 am

    10yr/$300 with an opt out after 3 years gets it done. However, I would trade him. Team’s farm system is weak and only Davis and O’Day are signed beyond 2018. Plus, I don’t see us spending $30 million a year on one guy. You could get a boatload of prospects back for him and rebuild team.

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 8:28 am

      It’s definitely something that has to be considered. But most fans certainly wouldn’t want to see him dealt. Even if it means rebuilding the farm system.

    • Steve Cockey

      May 10, 2016 at 10:29 am

      I have the same thought process on Manny. As much as I’d like to see him stay, I think it’s extremely unlikely. So the question then becomes, not only do you in fact trade him (which you absolutely should), but when? More than ever, teams nowadays want control of a player they’re dealing for and are willing to give up more for more years of control, at least in theory. It will certainly be interesting to see when (and if) they take their shot at signing him. They’ve already tried once.

  2. jcash4

    May 10, 2016 at 8:06 am

    What ever it takes. This kid has hall of fame potential, OS fans would be furious if they let him go. Davis deal is backloaded and a lot of salaries will be off the table when it’s mannys turn to get paid. Hardy, Ubaldo, gallardo, wieters, that’s a lot of salaries we won’t have to pay anymore. Pay the man

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 8:26 am

      Fair enough. But is there a breaking point for you? Is he a $30 million man?

  3. rebusgadfly

    May 10, 2016 at 8:41 am

    God to see ya barkeep. A cup of black joe would suit me well.
    The money, prestige, attendance, and positive press Manny generated, is generating and will generate offsets whatever I may pay him. the fan base was surprised and pleased with the lengths the club went to sign and keep Davis. There would be mutiny on the good ship Oriole is Manny is allowed to go without a return on our investment. If we are gong to lose him trade him like jcash4 suggested. Personally I would just back the old Brink’s money truck up to Manny’s backdoor. I would prefer to sign and keep him, but I’m not willing to break Oriole protocol and offer an opt out clause. Those things are never beneficial to the ball club. I just hope the front office doesn’t expect Manny to give us a home town discount. That is not going to happen. That dog doesn’t hunt.

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 9:14 am

      Joe your way. That dog not hunting. Like your point of the opt-out clause. These days I don’t see how you get a long-term extension without one. Will be interesting.

  4. blarmac

    May 10, 2016 at 9:13 am

    I would like to see a 10yr/300mil type contract with a structured pay scale that gives the O’s the ability to continue to build. And for a young player like Manny, it might not be a bad idea psychology-wise to dump a lot of money on him at once. Bottom line: structured high paying contract with the opportunity to continue to remain on a competitive team into his future.

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 3:52 pm

      would you allow him the option to lave if the team weren’t competitive or if he were outpacing that deal?

      • blarmac

        May 10, 2016 at 9:04 pm

        I think you have to, as a fan, it’d be nice to see it higher than three years.

  5. Djowen

    May 10, 2016 at 9:41 am

    Generally speaking a player that signs an extension a year or more before FA gets a discount compared to what he would get in FA. The farther away the larger the discount. The player gets the security of a big contract in case of injury and the team gets the player at less than they would pay at FA. That said I could see a 7-8 year contract that starts in the 20M a year range and goes up to 30-35M. We could put in some hefty incentives based on ABs, games, MVP, All-Star etc.(whatever is legal) that could add several million a year to the total. That would total in the 180-200M a year total value. I am not sure the O’s can do a 30M a year for 8 year deal. They might be able to do an AAV of 30M if they defer a significant amount. Yes we have players coming off the books but we will need players to replace them and some will be at contracts in a similar range to those coming off the books.

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 3:54 pm

      Well said all around. Drink chip.

  6. giggs32

    May 10, 2016 at 9:50 am

    First of all trading Manny is not happening at this point. However, if he does not come to terms this winter at the latest you may have to rethink it. I would pay him 10 for $300 mil as well with an opt out after 5 years. Orioles have the money and they need him with all the other top players at 29 yrs old or older on this team. He is one of the 3 best all around players in baseball. $300 mil might be a little light. The have waited too long already, it is only getting more expensive.

  7. OrioleBirdin PA

    May 10, 2016 at 10:08 am

    Orioles will have an interesting quandary in 2018 (if this all goes to fruition). Adam Jones’ contract I think is up after 2017. Do they re-sign him? He is very much the face of the franchise but his offensive numbers appear to be tailing off a bit (I hope that changes course) or at least have stalled & he will be “nothing” more than a solid player in the 20s in HRs, .270 range in BA and 90s or so in RBIs with Gold Glove performance in CF.

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 3:55 pm

      FYI Adam is signed through 2018.

  8. Steve Frew_CoolOsFan

    May 10, 2016 at 12:06 pm

    10 yrs. 250m

  9. Boog Robinson Robinson

    May 10, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    I’d offer 10 years at 30 million per year right now. Would Manny accept that offer? I don’t have any idea, but it’s a fair offer for both sides. It offers Manny and his knees unquestioned security and for the team, it’s the cost of doing business in the big leagues in 2016. By the midway point of the contract, it would be considered a bargain to the team.

    • Dan Connolly

      May 10, 2016 at 3:59 pm

      I think 10-$300M should get it done. I have no basis on that factually. But it would be the second highest in baseball history behind Stanton’s and it would be more than Stanton’s annually. I can’t imagine O’s go to that crazy amount. But walking away from $300 million would be very very gutsy.

  10. Puff

    May 10, 2016 at 7:21 pm

    I’d ask him what he wants, then I’d immediately say yes to whatever ridiculous number is thrown out there, without blinking an eye. The only negotiating point I’d have is how long we could pay him, ala Chris Davis. Hopefully he would be willing to accept his money over a number of years after his retirement. Manny Machado is a rare talent and is worth every penny he can get.

  11. twomooks

    May 11, 2016 at 11:34 pm

    Giver or take approximately a gazillion dollars! That might do the trick. Sure hope he stays.

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