Peter Schmuck: Welcome to an offseason that is riddled with Orioles uncertainty

I think we all know which areas the Orioles need to improve upon during what figures to be an unpredictable offseason.

All of them.

OK, maybe we can assume that at least one of the team’s rehabbing closers will be ready to open the season next March, but you know what happens when you assume.

Mike Elias said this week that he left his second straight losing season with a “bitter feeling,” and he has to know that this offseason will probably be his last as the president of baseball ops for the Orioles if that bitterness doesn’t take a dramatic turn toward betterness in 2027.

There’s no more mileage to be gotten from the “if only” excuses. The Orioles had some key injuries this year, but what team doesn’t over the course of an almost eight-month season (including spring training). And with a few obvious exceptions, the healthy players didn’t exactly distinguish themselves either at the plate or in the field.

So what do you do over the next few months and how much can you do with the uncertainty of a tense labor situation hanging over the sport?

There are no easy answers when a lot of the issues were more performance-related than talent-driven. The Orioles have a number of promising young players who are not living up to the potential that was ascribed to them during their organizational development.

What can Colton Cowser do during the winter to change the fact that three full years into a career that started with him finishing second in the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year balloting, he remains all but helpless against decent left-handed pitching? At what point do you have to reach the conclusion that a .219 career batting average doesn’t lie?

How does Gunnar Henderson rebound from two seasons of injuries and under-achievement? He admitted recently that he was playing with a sore wrist for much of this season after being hampered by a shoulder impingement in 2025.

But he also conceded that his mental approach this past season was not the best, which couldn’t have been a surprise to anyone who could see from his body language that he was frustrated and clearly pressing at the plate.

He’ll be okay, but the Orioles can no longer assume that he’ll be a top MVP candidate going into next season.

The brightest offensive development other than the tremendous performance of Pete Alonso was the second-half emergence of young Coby Mayo, who struggled defensively at third base and with the bat earlier in the season before going on a midsummer tear and finishing the season as the best hitter in the sport (1.105 OPS and 16 home runs) against left-handed pitching.

If he can continue an upward trend hitting against righties, he could soon emerge as a major star. He also may present the team with a dilemma next spring, when Jordan Westburg is expected to return at third base, which could leave Mayo to find his at-bats at DH or a move to the outfield.

The Orioles were hoping that 2022 No.1 overall draft pick Jackson Holliday would turn a corner this year, but he missed the first third of the season with a fractured hamate bone in his wrist and ended the season on the injured list with another wrist injury. His raw talent is unquestioned and he’ll still be 22 for a couple of months, so it would be premature to read too much into his soft half-season at the plate this past year.

The Orioles clearly need to add some players to tighten up the defense and get more offensive production from a lineup that wasted a lot of good starting pitching, but – as the Mayo situation demonstrates – where exactly would they put them.

Other than a quality corner outfielder with some pop (or two) and a second catcher who can hit his weight, they have players locked into every non-pitching role, which would mean some painful decisions for the front office. Of course, if control owner David Rubenstein okays another big Alonso-like deal for a serious difference-maker, I’m sure manager Craig Albernaz will find a place for him.

Perhaps tougher will be deciding how much more to invest in the starting rotation after giving Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish big long-term contracts. Brandon Young isn’t going anywhere, but the fact that the Orioles have not already signed Trevor Rogers doesn’t exactly bode well for their chances of competing for him in the free-agent market.

Elias has not had a lot of recent success gambling on late-career starters, but he and his staff have been able to dig deep for a few helpful relief pitchers. Of course, they could use some more of them, too.

The only thing that is certain is that the Orioles cannot afford to be left out in the cold this winter.