Peter Schmuck: Orioles can’t let possibility of a lockdown lull them to sleep

I’m pretty sure Mike Elias already knows this, but the Orioles need to proceed into this important offseason as if the 2027 season is going to begin on time.

Because it probably will.

The doomsayers think otherwise, of course. The current labor agreement between the 30 club owners and the Major League Baseball Players Association is set to expire on December 1st, and the word lockout seems to be on everybody’s lips.

I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the first move by ownership to deliver a shock to the collective bargaining process, and there would be only 2 ½ months to get something done before the traditional opening of spring training camps. That’s why I didn’t predict that spring training will start on time because it probably won’t.

There is some wiggle room in the first couple weeks of canceled bullpen sessions and batting practice, which is when the labor negotiations will heat up and the prospect of canceling Opening Day will quickly cool them down. That’s when I predict the two sides will opt to keep the terms of the expired Basic Agreement in place for an additional year to give them sufficient time to avoid making the same horrible mistake they did in 1981 and 1994.

Since I’m an old coot, I was around for both of those disastrous miscalculations and spent countless hours listening to the same arguments from both sides while Rome burns.

The main issue remains pretty much the same: The owners want a deal that allows them to keep more of their money before the conversation about the most outrageous player contracts turns from hundreds of millions of dollars to what I’m sure is now referred to at ownership meetings as “the B-word.”

We’re talking about a salary cap, though it’s too early to know whether the concept will be similar to the ones that were proposed in the bad old days or will be more nuanced this time and called something else. But however it is framed, the players will keep saying no until a bunch of guys who paid billions for their teams will get tired of keeping their big toys in the attic and tell Commissioner Rob Manfred to get a deal.

This all will take place after the 2027 season, if I’m reading this thing right. And, of course, it will come after President Donald J. Trump signs an executive order commanding the players to accept a cap and go back to work, which will be laughed out of the appellate courts and the United States Supreme Court and will only serve to prolong the dispute.

The bottom line is this: Only a couple of current players were out of short pants the last time baseball went through something like this and few linear ownership groups were around when the 1994 dispute canceled a World Series and alienated a significant portion of the sport’s huge fan base. So it would be unwise to think there is really anybody involved – except Manfred – who can be expected to take a lesson from history.

I’m just banking on the owners chickening out by March 1st and the players throwing them a big enough bone next year to keep that history from repeating itself.

In the meantime, the Orioles need to use what might be a brief window in November to aggressively pursue whatever players Elias needs to shore up the club and prevent a third straight losing season.

The free-agent market will likely be a free-for-all, but the short time frame should make a lot of players eager to get locked into a multi-year contract before the system faces a potential bottleneck in March.

I hope I’m right.