Let’s keep in mind that we are about 25 percent into the 2026 season, so those of you who clearly have already lost hope that the Orioles can reach the playoffs need to rest your necks.
The Orioles still have time to turn things around, though – as Yogi might have said – it’s starting to get late early around here.
The Yankees loom again and the Orioles still are stuck in a funk during which they continue to make big mistakes while seemingly unwilling to do the little things it takes to win.
When was the last time anyone sacrificed a big swing to move a runner over? For that matter, is there anyone in the Orioles’ dugout who is proficient at laying down a successful bunt? I might be waxing nostalgic for Cedric Mullins right now if he wasn’t hitting a buck and a half for the Rays.
I know, I know. The sacrifice bunt has been all but outlawed in the analytics era. Who wants to give up a few precious OPS points for an extra base? Who even thinks about intentionally cutting down a potential extra-base swing to hit behind a runner?
This issue got lodged in my mind after the Orioles twice had runners at first and second base with no outs early in a close game a few days ago and the next batter quickly grounded into a deflating double play each time.
The analytics rationale, of course, is that when you reduce the number of outs available to your hitters, you reduce the chances of producing a big rally and potentially putting the game out of reach.
If you’re talking about just the leadoff runner on first base, I totally agree that small ball – which some team used to great effect in the pre-steroid era – isn’t a very good option anymore. Even when it was somewhat popular, critics often countered that “if you play for one run, that’s all you’re going to get.”
When you’re struggling to score runs early in games, as the Orioles have during these early weeks of the season, playing for two runs seemed like a pretty good idea the other day.
What the analytics don’t measure is the hidden value of those two extra bases, had the O’s been able to move the runners up. Having runners at second and third with one out puts extra pressure on the pitcher, while hitting into a double play and bailing him out just bolsters his confidence and takes pressure off the opposing hitters.
The Orioles have the talent to play the analytical game, but some of them don’t have the experience to take advantage of it. That’s why I wasn’t shocked on Friday night when the TV guys on MASN pointed out that the Orioles have the worst success rate of any major league team when making contact on the first pitch.
I pointed this out in a column applauding the patient approach that has made Taylor Ward so successful in his first season with the Orioles. He’s willing to take a first-pitch strike because he’s not afraid to wait for his perfect pitch until he has to. The result is a ton of full counts, which wear down opposing pitchers, and a ton of walks, which help that all-important OPS.
Maybe it’s just my imagination, but a lot of young hitters – including budding superstar Gunnar Henderson – find themselves consistently behind in the count. Stand by for what legendary broadcaster Howard Cosell used to call “a piercing look into the obvious,” but that makes it a lot harder to square up a baseball.
Confidence is a fragile thing in a young player and it’s fairly obvious a few key guys – most notably Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo – are struggling to regain theirs.
There is time for that and there’s no reason to listen to the mindless goofs on social media and abandon hope that they will find themselves. They have to play through this because there really is no alternative for a team that has banked heavily on this larger group of young players to collectively reach their potential.
My advice: If you really want to do big things this year, it might be a good idea to think small once in a while.