Peter Schmuck: The wise guys in Vegas are more optimistic about the Orioles than I am

I stopped by the Maryland Live casino on Sunday to cash another long-odds ticket on red-hot golfer Matt Fitzpatrick and decided to check the futures odds on the Orioles.

Surprisingly, they remain at 22-1 to win it all even though they will enter their upcoming series against the Houston Astros two games under .500 and with troubling questions all over the roster.

Those aren’t particularly high odds during a strange April that has featured mediocre performances by a lot of teams that weren’t expected to be hovering around .500 right now, and the wise guys who make a ton of money figure these things out are cutting the O’s a lot of slack.

They still have the over-under for regular season wins at 83 ½, but the odds against them making the playoffs and winning as many as 90 games are both less than 3-1.

If you read the quotes from president of baseball ops Mike Elias and struggling slugger Pete Alonso in Rich Dubroff’s story earlier today, you’ll also get a big dose of optimism.

So what am I missing?

I agree that the Orioles have lots of exciting players and enough talent to turn around a sketchy start, but right now, you really have to believe that or your eyes.

The two most effective starting pitchers – currently – have been living on the Norfolk shuttle and the three guys who are expected to carry the rotation have been feeling their way around like me at midnight when the refrigerator light won’t come on.

The club is clearly taking some solace in the fact that its 13-15 record ranks eighth in the majors and the struggling offensive attack is in the middle of the pack at a time when the new ABS system seems to have much of the sport dazed and confused.

There are some real bright spots. Taylor Ward is proving that the trade that sent banged-up pitcher Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels might turn out to be the Orioles’ deal of the decade.

Gunnar Henderson clearly has got his launch angle back, though he’s still jousting with the Mendoza line, and young Samuel Basallo appears to be emerging as the big bat and solid catcher everyone expected. Probably well ahead of schedule.

The bullpen has been pretty good, but that won’t matter if the O’s can’t consistently put numbers on the scoreboard in the early innings. Presumably, Alonso will help take care of that when he settles into his new life outside of New York, but as we learned a long time ago from Tom Petty, the waiting is the hardest part.

Like everybody else around here, I’m hoping that the terrific burst of power from Coby Mayo this past week is a sign of the great things ahead that are expected of him and Colton Cowser isn’t fooling us with what seems to be a better approach at the plate.

Also, can’t wait to see Jackson Holliday back in the lineup, though his progression probably has been retarded by the hamate injury that continues to keep him in early-season limbo.

As for Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz, I just don’t know what to think. All have shown signs of their great talent, but none of them look like they are pitching with nearly enough confidence in it. That might all come down to a minor adjustment here and there, but we can only hope we’re not talking about this month from now.

And here’s hoping something else: I hope that those oddsmakers in their snakeskin suits really are a lot smarter than I am.