After four quiet days, the Orioles resume play against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night at 7:35 p.m. at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa with Charlie Morton (5-7, 5.18) scheduled to face Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.60).
The trade deadline is fast approaching, and as the second half of the season begins there are many questions surrounding the team.
Is it still possible for the Orioles to make the postseason? According to FanGraphs, the Orioles still have a 3.0 percent chance of playing beyond September 28th, though BaseballReference.com assigns them a .1 percent chance.
The Orioles trail Seattle, the third wild-card team by 7 ½ games, and they’re three games behind Cleveland, whom they’ll face in four games next week.
Besides the Guardians, the Orioles must pass Kansas City, Minnesota, the Los Angeles Angels, Texas and Tampa Bay.
They have already finished play with the Royals, Twins, Angels and Rangers, making things harder, and they have a chance to make up ground with three games with the Rays and four at Cleveland to start the second half.
Despite their improved play since Tony Mansolino took over, they’re still have the third worst record in the American League, 43-52.
Can they avoid a selloff?
It’s going to be hard. There are only 14 games before the July 31st trade deadline, and the Orioles need to play extremely well to get executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias to stop thinking about selling.
Let’s say they win eight of 10 against the Rays, Guardians and Colorado Rockies, who play in Baltimore from July 25th-28th, They’d be three games under .500, but showing progress.
Cleveland, which is just ahead of the Orioles, is three games under .500, with the Angels and Rays two games under.
That large group of teams ahead of them makes their task look exceedingly difficult, and nearly impossible to avoid a massive selloff.
How active are the Orioles going to be?
I would say very active. They already made one surprising move, trading reliever Bryan Baker to Tampa Bay for the 37th pick in Sunday’s draft. While The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal pointed out that the Orioles have listened to offers for left-handed starter Trevor Rogers and closer Félix Baustista, moving them seems unlikely.
The guess here is that Elias moves many of his impending right free agents: first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, centerfielder Cedric Mullins, starters Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, and relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto.
Starter Zach Eflin could be dealt if he returns to the rotation after his time on the 15-day injured list with a strained lower back. So could outfielder Ramón Laureano and reliever Andrew Kittredge. Both Laureano and Kittredge have 2026 options, complicating their situation.
When will the injured list become less crowded? It seems every time the Orioles remove a player from the injured list, there are one or two players who take their place. The latest to join was right-hander Scott Blewett, who injured his right elbow last weekend.
There are 15 players on the IL: Blewett, Eflin, left-handed reliever Keegan Akin, left-handed starter Cade Povich, and catchers Adley Rutschman, Gary Sánchez, Maverick Handley and Chadwick Tromp, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo, and starters Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells, relievers Cody Poteet and Albert Suárez.
Mateo, Mountcastle, Bradish, Poteet, Rodriguez, Suárez and Wells are on the 60-day IL.
It’s possible that Akin, Eflin, Mountcastle, Povich and Rutschman could rejoin the Orioles within the next two weeks. Bradish and Wells are possibilities for August, and the Orioles hope that Rodriguez pitches sometime during the final two months of the season.
When will Basallo join the Orioles? Everyone is eager to see 20-year-old Samuel Basallo, who remained at Triple-A Norfolk while four catchers went to the injured list.
The Orioles ended up signing Jacob Stallings to a minor league contract and promoted him, and traded for Alex Jackson while Basallo, who’s hitting .264 with a .975 OPS, 19 homers and 48 RBIs, stayed in the minors.
The guess here is that Basallo, who was named the organization’s top minor league player of the month for June, could be promoted after Rutschman returns from the IL or the Orioles could wait until September 1st when they’ll add one position player and one pitcher as the rosters expand to 28.
What other players could we see after the trade deadline? The Orioles could promote two relievers, right-handers Keagan Gillies, who pitched in last Saturday’s Futures Game, and right-hander Houston Roth.
Neither Gillies, who was the 15th-round selection in 2021, nor Roth, who was a 29th -round pick in 2019, appears on any top prospects list but have made their way to Norfolk.
Gillies has only pitched twice there but had a 1.15 ERA and eight saves at Double-A Chesapeake while Roth is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and two saves with the Tides after a 1.64 ERA in eight games with the Baysox.
Notes: Kyle Gibson, who led the Orioles in wins and innings pitched in 2023, announced his retirement on Thursday. Gibson was released by the Orioles in May after four ineffective starts and wasn’t able to land another major league job. … Right-handed pitcher Corbin Martin passed through waivers and elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. The Orioles have a vacancy on their 26-man roster, and it’s possible that Martin could re-sign with the team. … Chesapeake outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. has been placed on the Baysox’s 7-day injured list with a strained right hamstring. He aggravated the hamstring during the MLB Futures Game… Right-hander pitcher Esteban Mejia, who’s with the Florida Complex League Orioles, was named the organization’s pitcher of the month for June.
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