When the news broke Friday that Corbin Burnes needed Tommy John surgery, I naturally thought back to the Orioles’ attempts to retain him this offseason. General manager Mike Elias was heavily criticized, not just for failing to re-sign Burnes, but for failing to adequately replace him in the Orioles’ starting rotation.

Those criticisms have proven to be more than warranted given the team’s 25-37 record and 5.18 ERA from the starting rotation.

On the other hand, Burnes’ injury illustrates just how difficult the free-agent game has become for today’s front offices to navigate. Volatility in player health and performance seems to be at an all-time high, as evidenced by how last offseason’s top free agents have fared thus far in 2025.

According to FanGraphs’ free agent tracker, 23 players signed contracts of at least $30 million over the offseason. Just eight of them (35 percent) are currently healthy and producing in line with expectations. Here’s the complete list (players in bold are either on the injured list or drastically underperforming their expected numbers):

Juan Soto: $765M | .800 OPS, 1.2 WAR
Max Fried: $218M | 1.78 ERA in 81 innings, 2.1 WAR
Corbin Burnes: $210M | 2.66 ERA in 64 1/3 innings, 0.6 WAR | IL, Tommy John surgery
Willy Adames: $182M | .584 OPS, -0.1 WAR
Blake Snell: $182M | 2.00 ERA in 9 innings, 0.0 WAR | 60-day IL, shoulder injury
Alex Bregman: $120M | .938 OPS, 2.5 WAR | IL, quadriceps strain
Anthony Santander: $92.5M | .577 OPS, -0.8 WAR | 15-day IL, shoulder injury
Sean Manaea: $75M | 0 innings, 0.0 WAR | 60-day IL, oblique injury
Nathan Eovaldi: $75M | 1.56 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, 2.2 WAR | IL, elbow inflammation
Tanner Scott: $72M | 4.40 ERA in 28 2/3 innings, 0.6 WAR
Luis Severino: $67M | 4.77 ERA in 80 innings, 1.5 WAR
Teoscar Hernandez: $66M | .802 OPS, 0.6 WAR
Yusei Kikuchi: $63M | 3.23 ERA in 69 2/3 innings, 0.8 WAR
Christian Walker: $60M | .630 OPS, -0.2 WAR
Nick Pivetta: $55M | 3.16 ERA in 68 1/3 innings, 1.8 WAR
Pete Alonso: $54M | .966 OPS, 2.3 WAR
Tyler O’Neill: $49.5M | .605 OPS, -0.4 WAR
Clay Holmes: $38M | 2.95 ERA in 73 1/3 innings, 1.0 WAR
Joc Peterson: $37M | .507 OPS, -0.7 WAR | 10-day IL, hand injury
Jurickson Profar: $36M | 16 plate appearances, -0.2 WAR | Suspended 80 games for performance-enhancing drugs
Jack Flaherty: $35M | 3.72 ERA in 65 1/3 innings, 0.8 WAR
Frankie Montas: $34M | | 0 innings, 0.0 WAR | 60-day IL, lat injury
Jeff Hoffman: $33M | 5.65 ERA in 28 2/3 innings, 0.0 WAR

Ten of these free agents (43 percent) have accrued a WAR of 0.0 or less, and just seven of them (30 percent) have a WAR above 1.0. In total, the $2.6 billion spent on these 23 players has produced 15.7 total WAR. Taking out Soto, $1.85 billion has produced 14.5 WAR.

It’s easy to see why Elias seems to prefer one-year deals given how low the success rate has been with these lengthier contracts. But that doesn’t mean he deserves a free pass. A number of shorter-term deals signed over the winter would look awfully good in Baltimore right now, including:

Matthew Boyd: $29M | 3.01 ERA in 68 2/3 innings, 1.3 WAR
Paul Goldschmidt: $12.5M | .836 OPS, 1.6 WAR
Carlos Santana: $12M | .744 OPS, 0.9 WAR
Andrew Heaney: $5.25M | 3.24 ERA in 72 1/3 innings, 0.6 WAR
Griffin Canning: $4.25M | 2.90 ERA in 59 innings, 0.8 WAR
Jose Quintana: $4.25M | 2.66 ERA in 44 innings, 0.4 WAR
Danny Coulombe: $3M | 0.00 ERA in 16 2/3 innings, 0.8 WAR | 15-day IL, forearm injury; Orioles declined his $4M option
Ryan Yarbrough: $2M | 4.17 ERA in 45 1/3 innings, 0.3 WAR
Gavin Sheets: $1.6M | .779 OPS, 0.7 WAR
Patrick Corbin: $1.1M | 3.52 ERA in 61 1/3 innings, 0.3 WAR

Beyond free agency, the trade market provided two impactful opportunities to add starting pitching early in the offseason. The Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet on December 11th, and the Phillies dealt for Jesús Luzardo on December 22nd.

No other meaningful starting pitchers have been traded since, which perhaps surprised Elias. He said this on January 31st:

“It seems like there haven’t been many trades, just in general, this offseason. Maybe there won’t be, but also, maybe they’re just going to happen late. I don’t really know. But we’re working right now, and we’ll continue to do that.”

Was he expecting a pending free-agent starter like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Framber Valdez or Zac Gallen to be dealt, which never ended up happening? Given how well the Corbin Burnes trade turned out (Joey Ortiz has the worst OPS in baseball — .564 — since July 1st, and DL Hall has thrown just 51 innings in two seasons for Milwaukee), it would be understandable if Elias hoped to replicate that model by trading lesser prospects for a rental ace pitcher. But those arms never got traded, making Boston and Philadelphia’s early strikes for Crochet and Luzardo look even more impressive.

Reading the market and navigating a free-agent landscape littered with injury risk and volatility in production appears to be more difficult than ever in today’s game. But Elias will need to be much better on both fronts for the Orioles to return to the postseason.