BOSTON—The trade deadline is 12 days away, and suddenly the biggest question from Oriole fans is: Are the Orioles going to trade Adley Rutschman?
This was president of baseball operations Mike Elias’ answer to a question on June 27th about Rutschman: “I wish our commitment was greater than it is. We want him here forever.”
Elias generally avoids that sort of specificity when talking about players, but Rutschman is different.
He was Elias’ first draft choice in 2019, the player who was the key to the Orioles’ rebuild, and has been an important part of the team’s success. Since he debuted on May 21st, 2022, Rutschman’s had a 16.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and made three All-Star teams.
But Rutschman is just over a season away from free agency, and the Orioles are in a precarious position. They’re three games behind the Boston Red Sox for the final wild-card position entering Wednesday’s doubleheader.
Teams are interested in Rutschman. On Tuesday, both The Athletic and ESPN.com addressed Rutschman’s attractiveness.
ESPN.com rates Rutschman’s chances of being traded at 30 percent.
That seems high, and if he’s traded by the August 3rd deadline, it would be a shocking admission by Elias that he wasn’t able to make a long-term commitment to Rutschman.
Rutschman is currently on the 10-day injured list with left wrist inflammation, and the earliest he could return is July 29th, less than a week before the deadline.
The Orioles don’t publicly give timelines for players’ returns, but if an interested team presses them, I’m sure they’ll share that information privately.
Rutschman remains an important part of the Orioles’ offense and defense. He’s hitting .251 with a .764 OPS, his highest since 2023 when he hit .277 with an .809 OPS.
Many think it would be wise to trade Rutschman because his time for free agency is approaching, and it’s best to maximize return rather than wait until the offseason.
This offseason is likely to be compressed since a lockout is likely in early December, and deals must be completed quickly.
There are good reasons for holding on to Rutschman, and I think the Orioles will.
While Samuel Basallo is having an excellent rookie season, he’s currently hurt, too. Basallo is out with right shoulder discomfort, and for now, the Oriole catchers are Sam Huff and Chadwick Tromp.
Basallo has never caught more than 68 games in any season of professional ball, and without Rutschman, he’d have to catch more than that. He’s caught 46 so far this season.
Without Rutschman, the Orioles are left without a strong backup for Basallo, and asking him to shoulder the responsibility of a No. 1 catcher at 21 is quite risky.
Of course, the Orioles should listen to offers for Rutschman but subtracting him from a lineup that’s currently missing Blaze Alexander is going to hurt. They would need to find a more experienced backup catcher and replace a key bat in the lineup.
The Orioles badly need reinforcements for their bullpen and another right-handed hitting player, perhaps a third baseman or another outfielder. They can’t trade Rutschman for prospects when they already need help at the major league level.
Hopefully, the Orioles will be able to extend Rutschman as they have with Basallo and starters Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish. Those moves were wise, but a move to make sure that Rutschman is an Oriole forever would truly resonate with the fan base.
If it turns out Rutschman doesn’t want to sign with the Orioles for the long-term, then they can make the decision in November.
Rutschman has some negatives. He’s now on the injured list for the fifth time in just over a year. In 2025, he had two oblique strains, one on each side. This year, he’s been on the IL for left ankle inflammation, a concussion and now the left wrist.
Pairing Basallo and Rutschman for the long term would be wise. It could turn catching into a position of strength, particularly if Basallo continues his ascension.
Playing both Basallo and Rutschman at catcher and designated hitter keeps both bats in the lineup and helps shore up a questionable offense.
Trading Rutschman sounds risky, and it is.
The thinking here is that the Orioles shouldn’t trade Adley Rutschman, and they won’t.
They need his offense and defense as they make a final push, however unlikely for a playoff spot. Without Rutschman, that spot would seem even further away.
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