The Orioles begin a series with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night with a record of 40-48. According to BaseballReference.com, the Orioles have a 9.3 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason. FanGraphs calculates their postseason odds at 17.6 percent.

Most teams with records like the Orioles have don’t make the postseason, but in the last two seasons, two American League Central teams did.

In 2024, the Detroit Tigers were 40-48 through 88 games, and went 46-28 to finish 86-76 and were a wild-card team. They made it to the Division Series, where they lost in six games to the Cleveland Guardians.

Last season, the Guardians were also 40-48 on July 5^th after losing 10 straight games. Cleveland surprisingly went 48-26, erasing a 15 1/2-game deficit to win the American League Central before losing in the wild-card round to the Tigers.

Orioles manager Craig Albernaz watched the Tigers’ comeback and was a part of the Guardians’ turnaround in 2025 as the team’s associate manager.

Albernaz is reluctant to make comparisons between those teams and his current one as a first-year manager.

“A lot of the downside in this game is comps, either player comparisons or team comparisons,” Albernaz said. “Everyone’s different.”

In order for the Orioles to make the postseason, they might have to win 85 or 86 games, and they’d need to go on a run like Detroit or Cleveland did. In the first 88 games, the Orioles had no winning streak longer than three games.

The Guardians had six winning streaks of at least four games, and a 10-game winning streak from September 11^th-20^th that canceled out the losing streak that preceded their turnaround.

“It’s tough to have comps, but for our guys, it’s making sure we’re not looking too far ahead and we have to stay diligent to our work, and that’s something that in Cleveland that we rode,” Albernaz said.

The Guardians had to withstand the loss of two pitchers, starter Luis Ortiz and one of baseball’s best relievers, Emmanuel Clase, both charged in a gambling investigation.

“The boys rallied around each other and they believed each and every night they can go out and win, and they put the work in. They focused on what they had to do to win tonight’s game and play unselfish baseball.”

By the time the July 31^st trade deadline came around, Cleveland had gotten back to .500 with a 54-54 record.

The Orioles have 24 games until this year’s trade deadline on August 3^rd, and they’ll have to go 16-8 to reach .500 by then.

They haven’t come close to playing that well. Their best run was 10-4 from May 22^nd through June 5^th, when they were 31-33. They haven’t been at  .500 since winning the first game of a doubleheader from Houston on April 30^th.

Early in his managerial tenure, Albernaz talked often about his times with the Guardians, something he doesn’t do as often now. He didn’t volunteer any comparisons with his old team but was asked about comparisons.

“Our guys are similar,” he said. “It’s being able to put one foot in front of the other and not look too far ahead in the forest and making sure that they’re doing what they need to do for that night to be prepared to go out and win that game.

“It sounds very simple and elementary. The great teams, the great players, they don’t get bored with the basics. That’s something where your foundation as an athlete, your foundation as a team, is always basics in the fundamentals, and our guys are not bored with them, and great players and great teams just don’t get bored with the basics.”

Notes: On Wednesday night, the Orioles traded right-handed pitcher Kyle Nicolas to the Washington Nationals for minor league infielder Randal Diaz. The trade was notable because it was the first one between the Orioles and Nationals. For years, the Nationals and Orioles were engaged in a court battle over TV rights, but that was settled before the 2025 season.  Nicolas was purchased by the Orioles from Cincinnati on June 4^th. … Catcher Sam Huff passed through outright waivers and declined an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk, making him a free agent. …Norfolk catcher Creed Willems was placed on the 7-day injured list with a left hamstring injury. …Single-A Delmarva Joshua Liranzo was placed on the 7-day injured list with a left groin injury.

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