Despite Wednesday’s inexplicable loss to the Los Angeles Angels, the Orioles still have an opportunity to qualify for the postseason. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles have a 26.2 percent chance of being an American League wild-card team while BaseballReference.com calculates their odds at 15.9 percent.
After watching two disheartening losses, one at Dodger Stadium last Friday night and the debacle on Wednesday in Anaheim, those odds seem wildly optimistic.
The Orioles played their 82nd game on Wednesday, mathematically beginning the second half, though they still have 15 games before the All-Star break.
Twelve of those games—four three-game series—against Washington, the Chicago White Sox and Cubs and Kansas City are at home. The only road series is at Cincinnati.
That’s a distinct advantage, according to manager Craig Albernaz.
“Absolutely, we love playing at home,” he said before Wednesday’s game. “We love playing in front of our fans. It’s such a great environment. When you have the fans, your home crowd, having your back and cheering you on.”
The Orioles are 22-19 at home and 16-25 on the road.
“That’s where we want to be. To have 12 of those games there, that’s awesome,” Albernaz continued. “We also enjoy coming on the road because our fanbase travels well, and it’s a very big fanbase. Every time you go on the road, you always hear the ‘O’ in the national anthem.
“Playing at home, in front of our fans, guys sleeping in their own beds, being in their own clubhouse, that’s where we want to be.”
If you review the Orioles’ first half, it was full of surprises.
They’ve had five three-game winning streaks, but haven’t had a winning streak longer than that since last September 1st-6th when they won five straight against San Diego and the Dodgers.
Conversely, they’ve had a five-game losing streak (April 30th-May 4th), a four-game skid and five three-game losing streaks.
They haven’t been at .500 since winning the first game of a doubleheader on April 30th. The Orioles were eight games below .500 on May 20th (21-29). They won 10 of 14 and were two games under on June 5th (31-33), but since then haven’t seriously threatened the break-even point.
They were swept three times, all on the road, against Pittsburgh (April 3rd-5th), New York (May 1st-4th) and Tampa Bay (May 18th-20th) while they swept only the White Sox (April 7th-9th) and Rays (May 25th-27th).
They took two of three from the Dodgers, who have the best record in the National League, and lost two of three to the Angels, who are 34-48.
Reasons to be optimistic
The Orioles have yet to play their best this season. They’ve been able to overcome most of their injuries and sloppy defense to somehow remain in contention for a wild-card berth.
Fortunately, many other American League teams have also struggled his season, and the final wild-card team could be barely above .500, a mark that still seems achievable with the talent the team has.
The second half schedule doesn’t seem too daunting, but there are two three-city road trips remaining (Texas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay (August 4th-17th) and St. Louis, Athletics, Colorado from August 25th-September 2nd.
Reasons to be pessimistic
Because the Orioles have yet to play consistently, it’s hard to be convinced this team is a contender. It’s hard to imagine them as a playoff team if the inconsistency continues in the second half.
Young players, Samuel Basallo and Brandon Young, in particular, have never played a full major league season, and they’ll have to be monitored.
Yes, there are many teams in the same predicament that the Orioles are, struggling to get to .500 and playing inconsistently. It’s certainly possible that one or two of those teams play better as the Orioles continue to sputter, making 2026 a season of bitter disappointment.
Who were the biggest disappointments of the first half? The Orioles expected Chris Bassitt to be a forceful clubhouse leader and provide stability to the starting staff.
Bassitt has certainly been a presence, but he’s on the 15-day injured list with a lower back injury. His return is uncertain, and when he comes. back, he’ll try to improve on his 4-4 record and 5.27 ERA.
Tyler O’Neill hasn’t come close to justifying the three-year, $49.5 million contract he’s about halfway through. There aren’t a lot of quality right-handed hitting outfielders available, and the Orioles keep hoping he’ll get hot. O’Neill’s average hasn’t been above .200 since May 5th.
He’s hitting .183 with two homers and eight RBIs and a .544 OPS.
What does the club need to contend in the second half? The Orioles need to shore up their bullpen. Adding a quality left-hander and an additional back-end right-hander would help tremendously.
Rico Garcia allowed just two earned runs in his first 28 games. Since June 7th, the right-hander has given up eight earned runs, and his ERA has risen from 0.68 to 2.70.
“It’s falling behind,” Albernaz said. “He’s usually just pounding the strike zone and throwing strikes, and right now, he’s not as efficient as he has been. And it’s tough because he’s been borderline lights out for us for pretty much all year. With all of our guys, it’s just being efficient, getting ahead of hitters.”
With O’Neill struggling, an upgrade in the outfield, particularly a right-handed hitter, would be great.
While the starting staff seems to be in a nice groove and returns from Dean Kremer and Cade Povich, who are both on the injured list, looking probable, it would seem the Orioles are in good shape.
An upgrade to the rotation would always be welcome, and if there are excess starters, a six-man rotation or sending some starters to the bullpen is possible.
Earlier this week, Albernaz replied to a question about the possibility of a six-man rotation with a familiar answer.
“Everything is on the table,” he repeated.
Who are your candidates for Most Valuable Oriole of the first half?
There are several contenders. Catcher Adley Rutschman, first baseman Pete Alonso and utility player Blaze Alexander are the most likely ones.
Rutschman was hitting .254 with a .787 OPS until suffering a concussion on June 18th in Seattle. His return is uncertain.
After Alonso hit just .198 through the end of April, his offensive number have been strong, and he’s becoming the force the Orioles expected him to be.
Alonso is leading the team in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with 1.8. He’s also leading in home runs (18), RBIs (55), and OPS (.815).
Because of injuries to second baseman Jackson Holliday and third baseman Jordan Westburg, Alexander has gotten a chance to shine, and he’s played exceptionally well, hitting .305 with a .795 OPS.
Young, who was sent back to minor league camp early in March, has also been a nice surprise. Young is 6-2 with a staff best 3.07 ERA, and the Orioles have won 10 of his 12 starts.
Notes: Outfielder Michael Siani was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk after he passed through waivers. … Norfolk right-hander Jackson Kowar had right shoulder arthroscopic debridement surgery, which the Orioles say was successful. It was performed by Dr. Keith Meister in Arlington, Texas.
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