It’s time for our final monthly mailbag of 2021. We received many excellent questions, and I’ll answer some of them today and some on Monday. Questions are edited for length, style and clarity.
Question: Do you think after the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed, the Orioles will still be picking number one by the time the draft takes place next summer? From: GR via email
Answer: GR, I’m guessing that in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that no longer will the team with the worst record be guaranteed the first pick. The owners have proposed a draft lottery for the top three picks, and the players favor a formula based on won/loss record and market size. Teams like the Orioles that benefit from revenue sharing would get extra picks if they finished above .500 or make the playoffs. In the union’s proposal, teams couldn’t pick in the top five in consecutive years.
It’s obvious that there will be a change, and the question is if it will take effect for the coming draft in which the Orioles would have the top selection, or in 2023. I think it’s 50-50 that there’s change for 2022.
Question: Who do you envision the Orioles targeting in the draft? I’ve heard Brooks Lee (Cal-Poly) is gaining some traction as a possible Orioles target. I mean after all, the kid is named after Brooks Robinson. From: Kevin Aspelmeier via Facebook
Answer: Kevin, I received similar questions from Adam Saft on email, and @OrioleMax_5
Some of the players who, according to various mock drafts, could be considered for the top pick are Lee, who is a shortstop; high school outfielder Elijah Green; Texas Tech infielder Jace Jung; Vanderbilt infielder Carter Young; LSU infielder Jacob Berry; high school outfielder Andruw Jones; high school pitchers Dylan Lesko and Jackson Ferris.
In his three drafts, Mike Elias selected a college catcher, Adley Rutschman, and two college outfielders, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser with the first pick, so I’ll guess he’ll pick another college position player.
Question: Will the Orioles go back to physical tickets in 2022? I hope so. I’m not a fan of electronic tickets. Physical tickets are much easier to deal with. From: OrangeDNA via BaltimoreBaseball.com comments
Answer: I know a lot of fans enjoy hard tickets, and they like to collect them or keep them to mark special games, but I think they’re a thing of the past. Electronic tickets are easier to sell on the secondary market, and that’s where a lot of sales take place now, OrangeDNA.
Question: Any idea who the Orioles might pick in the major league Rule 5 when it happens? From: Bman via BaltimoreBaseball.com comments
Answer: If the Orioles are looking for a catcher in the Rule 5 draft, Tampa Bay prospect Blake Hunt is unprotected. If they’d prefer a pitcher, some intriguing names could be Oakland right-hander Brady Feigl, Nationals left-hander Tim Cate, Pittsburgh right-hander Tahnaj Thomas, Colorado right-hander Tommy Doyle; and San Francisco left-hander Seth Corry.
Question: What is the attraction to playing in Japan for foreign players? Is it for the cultural experience? Is it more popular with aging players who aren’t ready to give up the spotlight but are comfortable with less compensation? What are the biggest obvious differences between playing the MLB vs. NPB game? How are American players viewed over there? From: Icterus Fan via email
Answer: Marty, both you and Will Miranda had questions about foreigners playing in Japan.
Traditionally, Japan was more popular for veteran players from the major leagues, and for Adam Jones, a player who liked to travel and experience a different way of life, it could be a fulfilling way to conclude a productive career.
Increasingly, Japan and South Korea have been a destination for players who have had trouble sticking in the majors. A year or two in Japan can make a player more marketable in the United States. Take St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas. He spent several years in the San Diego and Texas organizations trying to establish himself, went to Japan from 2015-2017 and, after an excellent record there, was able to sign a two-year, $15.5 million contract with the Cardinals, then signed a four-year, $68 million extension with St. Louis.
In the late 1980s, I saw two Japanese games at the Tokyo Dome, and the style of play wasn’t fun to watch. There was a lot of playing for one run and, at the time, pitching was more finesse than power. I noticed that all public address announcers in Japan were women. There were six umpires instead of four, and years before it was mandated in the U.S., there was protective netting down the foul lines. There was also a lot of organized cheering.
Question: Is Isaiah Kearns still with the organization? He is a pitcher who was signed as an undrafted free agent after the shortened 2020 draft. Why has he been on the restricted list and not pitched the last two seasons? From: @Eastern_Av
Answer: Kearns decided not to play professional baseball and was put on the restricted list. He can’t play for a team other than the Orioles unless compensation is arranged.
Question: Why have the Orioles became the most hated tanking team? They didn’t invent it. Many other teams lack farm system talent and have also been bad. I’m confused why they zone in on the Orioles From: @MDSportsChat
Answer: I’m not sure that I agree with your definition of the Orioles being hated because of so-called “tanking.” Nationally, I think they’ve been more ignored than hated. Fans and baseball observers have belittled the philosophy, but there’s one certain way to stop the chatter, and that’s to win more games.
I do think that the Orioles have provided useful ammunition to the Players’ Association in their negotiations with the owners, and no one thinks it’s good for baseball if a team loses more than 100 games in the three most recent full seasons.
Question: Have you heard any names to watch out for in coming years out of the international signing period? Curious how Koby Perez is doing so far. From: @Briski715
Answer: Brian, Koby Perez, who runs international scouting, and the Orioles have been given high marks for basically starting an international program from scratch. The next signing period begins on January 15th, and it will be interesting to see if the Orioles are able to sign more of the higher-profile international players. According to MLB.com, the Orioles are favored to sign Dominican outfielder Braylin Tavera and Dominican shortstop Leandro Arias.
Since they’re signing 16- and 17-year-olds, this is a long process, and it probably will take at least five years to properly measure how they’ve done.
Note: Richie Lewis, a right-handed pitcher who began and ended his career with the Orioles, died on Wednesday at 55. Lewis made two starts in 1992 and pitched in two games in 1998. Lewis also pitched for the Marlins, Reds, Athletics and Tigers.
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View Comments
Rich interesting question that #1(lottery formula). Thinking the 1st pick was "earned" before the Collective Agreement(retroactive) yet you give it a 50/50.
Al, that’s because I’m not sure when any changes would take effect.
Rich, I love this site and the work you do, but I think you're wrong and that @MDSportsChat was right when he wrote that the Orioles were treated as the most-hated tanking team. Last season, there was a stretch where ESPN's Buster Olney and Squeaky Kurkjian, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, Jayson Stark and Dan Connolly, and writers from The Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun all took off on Baltimore and its losing. Not one pointed out that the Orioles were in the best division in baseball. Not one pointed out that the team was in a rebuild. Not one pointed out that the Orioles were scorched by Chris Davis's contract and his lack of effort in getting back onto the field (remember Jim Palmer's quote from the Orioles' hitting instructor who hadn't worked with Davis 'cos Davis never asked for help). Not one pointed out what players the Orioles could have invested in via Free Agency that would have moved the needle even a little in terms of wins in 2021. Not one pointed out that Arizona finished with the same record as Baltimore.
Patrick, thank you for sharing your thoughts.
The Orioles only have themselves to blame for Davis, so that knock is on the money. A lot of teams rebuild, but this version is a continuous teardown with no end in sight. I think everyone is waiting for the "build" part, not including waiver claims and minor league signings as "build". Arizona hasn't lost 100+ in three of the last four seasons, so that's not the best comparison. The Orioles suffer from a lack of respect that has been earned over a course of decades. The team's knack for being different for the sake of being different has finally rubbed impartial observers the wrong way. The biggest example has possibly been corrected, although I don't see any high end international prospects (like a Luis Robert for example) coming this way.
Yep, Davis was able to pull a fast one on PA. Players are not accountable for their own results. Always management's fault.
The story of late is that Buck was in favor of the deal. He certainly babied Davis, unlike the version of Buck that used to critique the socks of his players (Arizona).
If ONLY he had gone to the Tigers! Mike Illitch wanted him badly!
So the intelligentsia blasted Baltimore for not signing more free agents, and failed to address that the last big $$$ free agent signed fleeced the team, and you think that's okay? If the players -- and you and Kurkjian and Rosenthal and... -- want teams to sign players for more money more often, why not make the contracts NOT guaranteed? That way a player is earning for what he has most-recently done. And I have no idea what the last part you wrote ("...The team’s knack...coming this way") even means.
Totally agree with you ptjhu. You stated ALL FACTS and I applaud you on saying as much!!!
But per SOMEONE ELSE"S opinion/comment regarding Buck Showalter on Chris Davis I say the following with some quotes from Buck Showalter. Some players don't care about "earning" their salaries after signing for huge amounts. Some players have a mental letdown or sigh of relief after signing ergo the first year or two of their new contract being a dud. And some players let the contract play in their heads trying to live up to the contract and maybe never do so. Regardless the player union ALWAYS tells the players get as much as you can and don't look back regardless of who it hurts - the teams and fans!!! This is what I hate about the game of today!!! Because players think that owners wouldn't be able to pay it if they didn't have it BUT it doesn't really come from just the owners it really comes from the fans who support their teams by paying for watching their teams on cable or at the ballpark. So when players salaries increase so does the cost for fans. So the players Union is really saying screw the fans and get whatever you can. This is why I support the owners. BTW, the owners of baseball teams didn't become millionaires or in some cases billionaire by owning a baseball team, they did it before they even owned a team from outside businesses they own or supported or worked for. So the next time you see Derek Jeter who was on the other side for the players, and now is part owner of the Marlins, ask him why his team isn't paying the same amount for salaries like the team he played for and he'll tell you that they cannot afford to...
Anyways, I think the third one applies to CD's contract. It simply ate him up in his own head and Buck Showalter seems to agree (see below). So as far as Buck being the culprit in the deal of acquiring him and/or then resigning him is hogwash. It was all done by Peter Angelos. Not to say it was all bad because it definitely was not so. So first off, Scott Boras only deals with ownership on his dealings/negotiations for his star players because of the length and amount of money being spent. And I remember Buck telling the media during these negotiations after the season was over back then and stating the same thing he told Chris during BP during his final days under the current contract the following...
[Buck talking to CD on resigning and for how much] "During BP I was talking to him. He said, "what do you think?” He used to ask. And I’d go, “Well, Chris, how much is enough?” I said, “How much is enough?” … It’s not like he was playing for free at that time, either. He knew that. But how many of us would walk away from that? Put yourself in his shoes. Chris wore it on his sleeve. It ate at him, not being able to return statistically what the contract dictated. Let’s face it, the Orioles paid him for what he did in the past and hopefully was going to do in the future. Mr. Angelos felt a real commitment to the city to try to bring Chris back. It was kind of a behind-the-scenes thing. I didn’t know a whole lot about it until it really happened."
[Buck on trading for CD] "I remember distinctly that Peter Angelos just didn’t want to make the deal without Chris Davis in it. He just thought that he was a good fit for us. Thank goodness he did."
[Buck on CD regarding his unwillingness to adjust and was it fair for him to face the criticism] "What’s fair? A lot of people weigh in on things they don’t really know about. I don’t talk to pilots about how to land the plane. I’m not going to tell a surgeon how to do heart surgery. But at the same time, I saw Chris try to make adjustments. It would be at 2 o’clock on the field with nobody there. I remember he and [former Orioles hitting coaches] Jim Presley and Scott Coolbaugh doing all types of things. When you’ve had so much success doing things a certain way, a drastic change — what do you want to do, choke up and start punching the ball the other way? Chris’ contact-to-damage ratio was off the charts."
Also, I think when the Orioles had all those other star players around him, especially Mark Reynolds as I found out, the attention was off of him so he could relax and just play. Mark Reynolds was quite a character and always played with a smile and seemed to have an important tendency to have others relax and not take themselves too seriously. Plus IMO, for some players it's a lot easier to perform/play when their are so many others in the lineup who can produce besides yourself. Even though he was still being paid quite well before his humongous contract as Buck stated!!!
BTW, this interview was done with Buck Showalter on August 17, 2021 by Luke Jackson.
PS: I always tend to make certain typos purposely on my comments just to see if certain commenters read my entire post! Let's see if "they" can find any in the Easter egg hunt. Tee hee.
I finished reading it in full today after starting it yesterday. “Their” should be “there.” So there!
Pretty good JerseyO! Also, "Regardless the player union ALWAYS tells the players get as much as you can and don’t look back regardless of who it hurts – the teams and fans!!!" - player union should be players union. Final grade - C.
Mario Mendoza would have been a better hitting coach than Coolbaugh!
O’s #1, you bring up many good points that I’ve thought since CD’s first post contract season. Yes, he had legit injuries but they weren’t the reason for his failure. That was 100#, not 99, 100% because he put too much pressure on himself to live up to the expectations. As for saying you support the owners, I gotta admit I’ve personally done a 180 on the issue and am now also on the owners side. I always used to say no one goes to a game to watch the owners but seeing the utter lack of loyalty by any players, with a few extremely rare exceptions, has made me take the owners side now. I know, people can say the owners don’t show loyalty either and players careers are short and I get that, but to me it seems today’s players don’t actually care about the game and fans as much as they used to. Maybe I’m just getting old and nostalgic for the days the O’s fielded almost the same lineup for multiple consecutive winning seasons. You just won’t ever see those days again.
Luke Jackson brought up many good points…go O’s…
Luke Jackson did not bring up or make any points, he just asked the questions, it was Buck Showalter who made the points by his answers and agreeing with me!!!
I don’t think a lottery really would do anything to prevent tanking. If you look at the NBA where there is a lottery teams still tank. The 76ers did it for years and still got good players out of it. One change I’d like to see to the draft is the trade of draft picks. I know you can trade competitive balance picks. This year seems like the perfect year for a team like the orioles to trade back if it was allowed. There’s not a slam dunk number one guy right now and if the continues then why not trade back and accumulate more picks like teams in football do.
I agree with you on the lottery, but in the NBA you can get immediate help from the draft, but in baseball the reward is farther away. I could see the owners selling the lottery as a TV show much as the NBA does. I just want a better system than we have now, Orioles20.
I agree with #20.....The lottery wouldn't be effective in baseball as it might be in basketball. Is there really that much a difference in picking #1 each round vs. picking #6 or 7? I'd love to see a numbers comparison for the past 20 years in #1 picks vs say a #6?
This sound's like a job for Hummer/Pajama Boy/Whydoeshebother?
Ken, here are the best No. 1 picks since 2001: Joe Mauer, Justin Upton, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa and Dansby
Swanson.
The best No. 6 picks were Zack Greinke, Andrew Miller, Zack Wheeler and Anthony Rendon.
Yes, there’s a huge difference.
Rich, first off, thanks for that research. I appreciate it, however I think you misread ...or I wasn't clear enough ..with my statement.
I was thinking more about the differences between the #1 and 6/7 picks for EACH (and I did state 'each) round of a draft collectively. Not just the 1st round on it's own. Rounds 1 through 20. 30 or however many there have been over the years. Big picture .... aka an entire draft as a whole. Overall, I'm thinking the positioning for each of lower rounds, 1-7, collectively, can't be that be a difference.
How come the Sox and Yankee and Dodgers to name a couple, seem to find really,really good players without having number one overall picks? I would think it's because they invest more heavily in their scouting departments and find these gems in rounds 2,3,4,5 and or lower. Rutchsman was a no brainer. But I'd rather find 3 or 5 solid big leaguers every year than one superstar every 3, wouldn't you?
Now let's look at what you just replied. I'm not that impressed. You gave me 8 names picked number one over the past 20 years? What happened to the other 12? You listed 8 stars/studs out of 20 ...not exactly cash in the bank is it? And heck...I'd even throw Swanson out since it's not like he's a perennial allstar or anything. So let's make that 7 out of 20 You have a 33% of striking gold with THE number one pick. Not exactly the same the NBA is it. Nice odds,but it's not like you're getting a slam dunk superstar every year.
Baseball's draft, and even the VERY top of the draft can be a crapshoot can't it.?
S-B, You are so right that baseball's draft is ultimately a crapshoot--probably more so than in the other major sports. This reality casts doubt on the optimists' contention that our GM will work his supposed magic and draft the Orioles into a contending team in just a couple more years.
Although the #1 picks were stellar, the #6 picks weren’t scrubs by any means.
Ken, I didn’t include the last five or six years because they haven’t established themselves. So it’s seven of 14 or 15, so a 50 percent chance, which is pretty good.
You are correct that scouting matters. Interestingly, some of the best current Orioles: Mancini (8), Means (11) and Mullins (14) were picked in lower rounds.
Thanks Rich....that does sound better.
Most of the time luck plays a bigger part than any scouting department can, especially on later rounds. Sometimes I’d rather be lucky than good.
So THATS what Shambles + Bile equals, eh, Boog?
Shambiles.
I know I don’t bring anything to the table here, but somehow it’s just not “you”.
Shambileiscious?
You were pretty close... Shambles + Bile equals = Boog!!!
But don't worry, you can't have Boog without Bile!!! So you're needed also!!! Misery needs his company!!! Lol
I know you are but what am i?
Good to see you're calling yourself what you really are - Sham_Biles. It's about time!!!
No more lying and stealing the name of John Boog Powell, Brooks and Frank Robinson!!! I'm proud of you!!! Lol
Tee hee…go O’s…
Tee hee...easter eggs ... tee hee.
Rich, agree the system needs to change, but a lottery won't really solve it. I would change revenue sharing. A salary threshold for the active roster, referred salary doesn't count. For every 10% below the salary threshold, revenue share is reduced 15%. A payroll that is 20% below the threshold, 30% reduction in revenue share. As with all CBAs, there will be other items that would reflect trade offs by each side.
Phil, I’m sending you to the negotiating table.
I think you have an interesting idea, and I’m hoping there will be real changes once this thing is settled.
I know I've mentioned this before about tanking, but I think that the last place finisher in each division should forfeit its first-round choice. This would diminish the motivation to lose and also create some competition at the bottom of the standings. Since it applies to all divisions, being in a "strong" or "weak" division would be less important.
I like that idea....a lot!
I'm sorry but I despise the idea of penalizing teams for finishing last. First of all it has to be proven that they did it on purpose and second some teams do just go tgrough bad stretches. A top 5 lottery maybe. A recent article by Jayson Stark suggested a flipping of the draft order. Sounds like they're getting a little desperate at The Athletic. When the Red Sox,Yankees,Dodgers start drafting ahead of teams that are suspected of tanking the REAL fix will be on. Leave the draft order as is BUT implement a minimum level salary cap.
I think a more fundamental question is why, in a competitive endeavor, teams should be rewarded for incompetence. The draft isn't a charitable program to tide over people who've had a spell of bad luck. The six last-place teams in 2021 had loss totals of 89, 97, 101, 102, 110, and 110. The outlier, with only 89 losses, played in a division where only one team had a record over .500. The draft is not intended to help individual failing franchises but to help the league as a whole by allocating talent in a way that promotes competition, which is what the league is selling as entertainment. In addition, it allows underperforming franchises to purchase hot new players --or at least names-- that attract fannies to the seats and pay off both home and visiting teams. Consider the O's: no matter how bad they are next year, Rutschman will sell tickets, partly based on the publicity of his having been the No. 1 pick. Having stars is important for entertainment, so letting uninspiring teams have one or two is a good idea. I really don't think whether the abysmal record is intentional and reprehensible or unintended and pitiable is important. My suggestion was as much to promote competition among the "have-nots" as to inform them that their complacency is unacceptable.
Totally agree with you Orial!!! Except for the League minimum level salary cap. Players won't buy this because owners would then ask for a maximum salary cap as well.
My suggestion is to have the 5 worst records for small market teams have NO restrictions on signing free agents. This means they would not lose ANY draft picks in order to sign any free agents - period. Even free agents that are offered the 1 year qualifying offer.
Then you would see these smaller market teams like the Orioles have a quicker turnaround!!! Someone stated why do the Yanks, Dodgers Bosox to name a few, seem to find really, really good players without having number one overall picks? Well for one HUGE reason was they all used the overseas international market while the Orioles never did!!! At least until now!!! And all the better players overseas had huge $$$ amount commitments to the yanks, dodgers and bosox as well!!! Now that the Orioles are finally in this market and are also showing a HUGE commitment by building a new facility over there and now signing some players, these better players will hopefully choose to play for the Orioles now!!!
What is the attractiveness to foreign baseball players of playing in Japan? The succinct answer is 'money'. Who would not want to get well paid for the chance to continue playing a game you enjoy playing?
100% spot on…go O’s…
Well, obviously compensation is a strong consideration always. Here, avarice rules, so the more $, the “better”.
My question revolved more about why players would go somewhere else to play for less money. Why travel to Japan if you can just stay here and achieve potentially higher income domestically?
Now, as Rich pointed out, I understand that if players can play in the NPB successfully, the odds are good that they can then possibly get a more lucrative contract in MLB.
Ict, I daresay you will find very, very few players--if any--who opted for Japan and who took a pay cut from what they could have earned playing in the USA. Invariably, the relatively few who go over there are aging or fringe players who are more attractive to Japanese teams. Except for the travel-phobic, Japan's well-funded major league has to be a much better and more lucrative option than losing face by taking a minimum MLB salary, being out of baseball, or toiling in the minors.
Yes, I can’t see that happening either. That was the crux of my question. Why would a player go there, other than one who’s skills have diminished or they are just a middling talent at the outset with little recourse.
If they have the talent and drive, it seems like they should stay here, improve their skill set and keep trying due to the possibility of success and the high net worth.
But I know not of what I speak, which is why I asked the question initially.
It is basically getting good pay for playing AAA ball!
Among the players listed who could be considers among the top picks was the name Andruw Jones. It did not say Jr. I’m wondering if that is the son of Andruw Jones who was a centerpiece for so many of those great Braves teams in the past? Out of curiosity, did that Andruw Jones ever receive consideration for the Hall of Fame? If the Andruw Jones mentioned as a draft pick is in fact the son of the Braves Andruw Jones then I’d like to see the O’s take him and hope the apple didn’t fall far from the tree. You can never have too many good outfielders.
Yes, it’s his son.
But too many bad ones....
His first name is actually Druw not Andruw, that's why he doesn't have the Jr.
Scott Moore and Lou Montanez were #1 picks, the draft is a crapshoot!
In looking at all the comments regarding tanking and how to fix it. I am wondering where all of the more talented players are? Where are the players who had the tankers employed for more money, would have won many more games? The answer is that there is not enough major league talent to go around, especially without a salary cap. Arbitration is badly broken, so the incentive is to get younger and cheaper. Long term, guaranteed contracts are a burden on competition, too.
Spot on comment!