After Sunday’s 22-7 loss to the Blue Jays, which gave Toronto 44 runs in 23 innings, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde explained the final weeks of the 2021 season.
“It’s mid-September,” he said, “and we’re in evaluation mode … A lot of these guys are appearing in the big leagues and don’t have many appearances … This is just part of it, seeing what we have and letting them get experience in the big leagues and seeing how they react, how they deal with some adversity.”
Hyde is aware many of the players on the 28-man and 40-man rosters won’t be back in 2022.
Let’s examine some of the questions facing the Orioles in the final 19 games.
Are we seeing the rotation for 2022?
The Orioles appear to have have many candidates for the 2022 rotation — Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Chris Ellis, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, John Means, Bruce Zimmermann and Alexander Wells.
Other than Means, who has a 4.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and a 3.42 ERA, none of the others is a sure thing for 2022.
Next spring training, the Orioles also could consider candidates at Triple-A Norfolk. Kyle Bradish and Kevin Smith are the likeliest names. They also might look at Cody Sedlock, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, who has a 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 innings at Norfolk.
Top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall don’t appear to be candidates to start the season with the Orioles but should see extensive time with the team in 2022.
What will the bullpen look like?
The guess here is that while many of the starters to begin 2022 are likely to be familiar, that won’t be true for the bullpen.
It appears that Tyler Wells will enter 2022 as a late-inning guy, although he was one of many who got rocked by the Blue Jays. Jorge López, whose season ended early because of a sprained right ankle and is eligible for arbitration, seemed to be a better fit for the bullpen than the rotation. He, too, might be considered for late-inning relief.
Cole Sulser and his 3.15 ERA should be back, as should Dillon Tate, whose potential still seems to outweigh his inconsistency.
The two biggest question marks are left-handers Paul Fry and Tanner Scott.
Fry was sent to Norfolk after a horrible August in which he allowed 17 earned runs and 16 walks in seven innings for a 21.86 ERA. Scott, who has a 9.82 ERA since the All-Star break, appears to have lost his command and confidence.
Both are eligible for arbitration, and the team might not want to offer it to them. Their trade value, which appeared to be high in July, has fallen dramatically.
Hunter Harvey, who showed outstanding promise in a small sample size in 2019, is on the 60-day injured list and has thrown just 23 2/3 innings in his three partial major league seasons. It’s likely the Orioles will keep him, but they won’t depend on him because he hasn’t been able to remain healthy.
Some starting candidates could end up in the bullpen. So could Conner Greene, even though he has a 5.40 ERA in 15 innings.
The bullpen is an area where the team could spend in free agency. With so many vacancies, it makes sense to target a veteran reliever or two. While they might consider starters out of their price range, relievers could be more cost-effective.
Who’s going to back up Rutschman?
It appears to be a given that Adley Rutschman will be the starting catcher in 2022. It also seems unlikely that Pedro Severino will be his backup. He’s making $1.83 million, and he could get a $3 million contract in arbitration.
Severino hit .220 with a .619 OPS in the first half of the season. Since the All-Star break, he has hit .273 with a .785 OPS. The Orioles probably will try to trade him before a contract must be offered. He’d be an attractive free agent as a backup to an established catcher, and the Orioles seem to have a solid backup in Austin Wynns. While he doesn’t have a strong bat (.184 average in 37 games), Wynns probably would embrace the role as Rutschman’s backup.
Who has impressed in the infield?
The Orioles have discovered that Ramón Urías could be a useful player, whether it’s at shortstop, second base or as a utility man.
Jorge Mateo’s speed intrigues them, although it’s not clear which position is his best. He’s been slowed by a bad back but is still hitting .280 with a .748 OPS.
Kelvin Gutiérrez has been give regular time at third base, and while his glove has been solid, he’s hitting just .187 in 28 games.
Rylan Bannon got hot in mid-August, but he doesn’t have an RBI since August 24th, is hitting just .173 at Norfolk and hasn’t earned a promotion.
Jahmai Jones’ speed and athleticism intrigued the team, but in the 17 games he has played at second base since his recall he’s compiled a -.6 WAR. His .164 average and 20 strikeouts to two walks ratio hasn’t been impressive, and his play at second base remains a work in progress.
Richie Martin remains on the team and should get some more starts at shortstop in the final weeks of the season, though he also has a -.6 WAR.
A year from now, Jordan Westburg, who has jumped two levels this season, could be in the big leagues at either short or third, although he’s hitting .only 179 in 23 games at Double-A Bowie.
The Orioles have drafted a number of infielders in the past three drafts, but none seems ready to begin next season with the team.
A name to watch is Terrin Vavra, who was obtained from Colorado as part of the Mychal Givens trade last August. Vavra missed much of this season because of a back injury and is hitting .248 at Double-A Bowie, but he has a .388 on-base average.
The combination of Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle at first and designated hitter has worked well.
Are any new outfielders likely to join the team?
Cedric Mullins has had an All-Star season in center field and is on the verge of a 30-30 season (home runs and stolen bases).
Austin Hays, who has been facing a steady diet of left-handers recently, had a 17-game hitting streak and has pushed his average up to .253, though he’s hitting only .221 against right-handers (.297 against left-handers). After two stints on the 10-day injured because of sprained ankles, Hays has managed to stay healthy and has played in 112 games. His 18 homers and 60 RBIs have proven he’s capable of being an everyday outfielder if he can improve his hitting against right-handers.
Anthony Santander also missed time because of a sprained ankle, is hitting .249 with 17 home runs and 49 RBIs. In the past week, he has three homers and eight RBIs. In the 60-game 2020 season, Santander was a finalist for the American League Gold Glove in right field. This year, he has an -.8 WAR.
Ryan McKenna has been a useful addition at all three outfield spots, and he’s likely to be back, as is DJ Stewart. Stewart is a liability on defense with a -1.2 WAR. His offensive numbers aren’t great (.205 average, .708 OPS), but he does draw walks and there’s no one pushing him at the moment.
The Orioles had hoped Yusniel Diaz would be in the major leagues by now but his .169 average at Norfolk won’t earn him a trip to the majors. Robert Neustrom, who was the Orioles’ fifth-round draft choice in 2018, is hitting .252 with the Tides and has an .812 OPS. He could be added to the 40-man roster.
Kyle Stowers, who was the Orioles’ second-round pick in 2019, has 27 home runs at three levels, two for Norfolk. He doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster for another year.
It is possible that the Orioles will sign a major league veteran for outfield depth and an upgrade.
Notes: The Orioles have promoted infielder Gunnar Henderson from High-A Aberdeen to Double-A Bowie. Henderson, who hit .312 at Delmarva, hit .230 with the IronBirds, but drew 40 walks in 65 games and has a .343 on-base percentage.
Aberdeen is out of the playoff hunt, and Bowie is fighting for a postseason berth. The promotion could give Henderson some extra at-bats this season.
Every weekday, I’ll be answering at least one Orioles question. If you’d like to submit…
CINCINNATI—What happened? The Orioles completed their best week of the season, winning their fourth straight…
CINCINNATI—Dean Kremer allowed just one hit in six sparkling innings, and the Orioles completed a…
Albert Belle signed a five-year, $65 million contract with the Orioles in late 1998, but…
CINCINNATI—Starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who’s on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, has…
CINCINNATI--What happened? John Means was dominant in his first start of the season, allowing three…
View Comments
Thanks as usual for the article Rich…what about Zach Watson, or is he looked at as minor league depth right now
Thank you, Millboy. Watson is certainly a prospect, but Neustrom and Stowers have already played at Triple-A. The list was certainly not all inclusive.
Youngest team in the majors knocks off Tampa Bay, triple crown candidate takes over hr lead & only 22, when playoffs start may root for the Giants, first to clinch, former O’s players leading the way, & they’re black & orange, perfect example of a winning organization, O’s west…go O’s…
Hmmmm, Toronto has the youngest batters in the MLB 26.7 average age, with Cleveland and the O's at 26.8 average age, and Texas 26.9 average age. But Toronto's pitchers average age is 29.1, above average. Cleveland has the youngest average age for its pitchers 26.2 >>> Cleveland is the youngest team in the majors but they didn't play yesterday...
And then there's SF with the oldest batters in the MLB at 30.5 and 5th oldest pitching at 29.8?
So which is it? Should the O's play all 22 year olds? Or should they emulate the perfect example of a winning organization like the much older Giants? Or do you just like to complain & criticize the O's in an inconsistent manner because it makes you feel better?
You like to complain about complaining, as if someone put you in charge of everyone's lives. Grow up.
Hey Joe ...your GM and his methods have sucked win so far.
I'm pretty F'INSUREABOUTTHAT.
Hi Boog,
The reason we have not been good in 2021 is because the focus was not on 2021. It has been known that this is going to be a multi-year rebuild, and usually in these situations ownership does not greenlight any spending until they feel the team can be competitive. Even Houston had a payroll around $30m at one point in their rebuild, now they regularly push the luxury tax.
If we had gone out and spent ~30-40m this year, we would win what, 65 games? 70? That's not worth it to an owner, sad as it is. Likely in the 22-23 offseason, once some of our better prospects are established, they will fill a lot of holes through free agency. The way the system is set up, losing more now will help us win in the future. It's screwed up but it's the way it is.
So yeah, it's not fun, but this season is not a reflection on Elias. Hyde on the other hand...
All things considered, I do find it odd that most older fans seem unwilling to display any patience, when that is one of the virtues they claim young people no longer have.
As an oldster, may I say that I value patience but I don't think its definition is vacuous passivity in the face of culpable disaster. Patience is the steady application of effort to a goal, however short or long the steps. The pace may change or the vector may adjust to accommodate obstacles, but the end is clear and fixed. Most of all, it is working one day at a time, every day. It is not blowing off a whole year with the blithe excuse that "it's not the focus." After reading Rich's fine projection of next year, do you see any reason, next year at this time, not to say, "2022 was not the focus" after another year very similar to 2021? A number of times I have asked here what year is "The Focus" for "The Plan." It is a constantly receding horizon. For the record, I find participating in this site a work of patience, and a very enjoyable one.
Markakis ...I didn't intend to get on my same tired soapbox and kick the same tired old subject around today....but you riled me up.
First off...I apologize for my typo in my orginal post, I intend to say "sucked winD". (don't ever buy a 'Uhuru' brand keyboard...they suck wind too)
I digress ...
I find it kind of silly that people believe that I/we old farts don't "understand" what a rebuild is. Thanks for the thousands of explanations provided to me over the past couple years. But let's face it ...this isn't calculus. I do understand
TANKING...and that's what this is, is simply a cheat. It's unethical. And not doing your best at all times is something my old-timey parents taught me was the lazy man's way. If this weren't so unethical, borderline cheating, why the hell doesn't Elias just lay it to rest and tell us that he's more interested in the position of next year's draft choice than winning an extra 10 games this year? I'll tell you why he doesn't ... because it's just plain wrong. And he's not stupid...he know's it's wrong.
In what other business can you openly trash the quality of the product and continue to charge the same price? Why is this so acceptable to today's society?
I hate to say it ..,.but all I can come up with is "welcome to the new millenium" and the worst generation of America. Where losing is evidently, the new winning. Now THAT...I dont' understand.
Willm, My personal guess is still that the focus/process/rebuild successfully emerges in 2024 IF there is not a an unusually high number of flame-outs at the Major League level among the currently promising prospects. If the Diaz disappointment syndrome
is widespread, then yes, the horizon will recede. And the intractable optimists will continue to preach patience.
Complain about a bullpen full of waiver wire (untradeables)? Critisize an inefficient Front Office? Yeah, I guess I'm guilty, so sue me.
:)…go O’s…
No complaining or criticizing, just statements, I remember you criticizing me for mentioning Yaz a couple months ago, then you changed your narrative regarding him because it fit something you were trying to say…pretty funny…go O’s…
100% spot on Boog, from another old fart, my parents brought us up the same way, the right way…go O’s…
I think Rodriguez and Rutschman will be up sometime early next year. To me Stowers is the reason Stewart better figure it out quickly. He looks like the real deal. I also think Westburg could be up at some point next year. And now that Henderson is in Bowie I think it’s possible he could be up too. Diaz has been abysmal all year. I understand he’s been hurt but even when he’s on the field he hasn’t done much. And the injuries are starting to pile up for him. Same with Harvey. Wonder if they move on from Harvey this offseason. Hall is starting to concern me a bit. He still hasn’t thrown a full years worth of innings. And his last two seasons have ended in injury.
I don't see any reason they'd move on from Harvey. His trade value would be low, there aren't 10 strong reliever candidates to push him off the roster, and he'll be paid at minimum salary for another year.
Rich, you say we have 10 strong reliever candidates? Except for Lopez and Wells, I'm sure you're not talking about anyone on the major league roster?
Norm, I'm saying that there aren't 10 strong reliever candidates.
Sorry, my bad but you will excuse an old man who doesn't have a lot oif time to wait for Elais' magic to work finally in 2030 or later. But seriously, the bullpen has to be cleared, including Sulser, and real MLB relievers have to be brought in. I don't want to hear "good pitchers don't want to come here because of Camden Yards" Offer them enough MONEY and you'll have a real REBUILD instead of what the snake oil salesman is peddling.
Norm, I think it would be easier to attract relievers to pitch here than starters.
Wynns may be a real nice guy, but his stats are very bad. The O's are 7-28 in games he has started, that's a 0.200 winning percentage vs the team 0.322 winning percentage. His WAR is -0.7 at both BR and FG. His CERA is 7.58, the worst in the MLB for catchers catching 800 PAs or more. Severino or a FA catcher would be a far better option than Wynns IMO.
Joe, they’re not going to spend $3 million on a backup catcher.
Wynns would be excellent as a mentor and willing to accept the backup role to a budding star, which many others wouldn’t.
If you told him, he’d catch 40 games maximum, he’d be fine with it.
Finding a backup to a big-name catcher is tricky because it’s not easy mentally.
That being said, it’s highly possible that the Orioles look elsewhere for a backup, but they may be on the same level as Wynns, who is great at working with young pitchers.
Agree. Austin Wynns would be an ideal back-up to Rutschman.
He also appears to be a very good team-first fellow.
Isn't he the one who got the Sage for the Cleansing Ritual?
Wynns can’t hit- that’s clear. On any other team, that would be enough to disqualify him- but not our Orioles. Severino is a much better hitter, but our cheap owners won’t pay 3 million. This is chump change for a realMLB club. Rich- just out of curiosity, what do the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, White Sox, Red Sox, Giant pay their back up catchers? I’ll bet it’s not the minimum salary that we’ll pay- for a . 175 batter. But then, we aren’t trying to field a competitive team!
The Yankees pay their backup, Kyle Higashioka $575,000, the Astros pay their top two catchers, Jason Castro and Martin Maldonado $3.5 million, Giants pay Curt Casali $1.5 million, Dodgers pay Will Smith $590,000. It's all over the lot.
Mike, Wynns was the sage man.
I would have fewer passed balls than Severino, and I am 60!
Excellent breakdown Rich but WOW you really laid out how lame things are(not your fault of course). That Infield with the number of auditions going on is STILL way below par and no-one stepping forward. Eveyone clamoring for Bannon can now see why he's not here(again good info on him Rich--thought he was better than that). Pitching staff(other than Means) is just a group of names. Speaking of Means-why does he seem to have peaked already? Hyde will be back but this just illustrates a lack of urgency that he feels no pressure. It is mandatory that Elias add a starter or two,a reliever or two,and an IFer or two,and show an attempt to become competitive. Complacency at the big league level on his part would be criminal after witnessing two 4,000 crowds this past week. Dangerous off-seasin staring at us.
Truth.
Al, Means hasn’t peaked. It’s very hard to pitch for a team that may lose 110 games.
His 4.1 WAR in 22 starts is excellent, and so is his 3.42 ERA.
If the Orioles made him available, which they won’t, he’d be a hot commodity.
Ultimately, it's not the decision of Elias. He will spend any money given to him.
There is no incentive for ownership to spend right now, as all that does is reduce the value of our draft bonus pool.
To his credit, Elias has never, to my knowledge, complained about a lack of funding for what he wants to do.
Agree, the Os must field a competitive roster. Hang on for the future isn't gonna cut it in 2022. "Fool me once...
Right there with you Orial, Means concerns me, may be the best pitcher the O’s have, but look what you’re comparing him to, he seems somewhat injury prone, “tired arm” each season at least the last two years…go O’s…
I'm concerned about Henderson's throwing issues and instincts on double play , backup, covering second etc. Did not think he was ready for a promotion but perhaps they are looking for his bat to help the playoff push.
Oh nooo!! Not another DH.
He has great instincts to get the ball, phenomenal plays but too often can't finish. Just think he meeds more development in that area. I'm not sure the number of errors but they are high. Majority on throws I would say from watching.
Overall our "jumps" for backing up a play or anticipating what's needed for a broken play are not there. Not "the Oriole way". I can see it with our opponents but not the Ironbirds.
Hi IBSTH,
I have a half season plan and agree he is still a raw talent.
the comment about Kyle Stowers even though you don't make the choices for the orioles is how I believe they look at things. you said he doesnt need to added to the 40 man for another year. he SHOULD be added and should get time up next year. you shouldn't wait till a guy needs to added or somebody else will pluck them in rule 5. he should be looked at as a possible OF in the bigs next year over McKenna and dj stewart.
Mike, you don’t add a player to the 40-man until they play in the majors or if they must be protected. If you add them a year ahead of time, you’re wasting an option unnecessarily as well as not protecting a player you need to
I fully expect him to play for the Orioles some time in 2022, and when he’s added to the 26-man roster, you add him to the 40-man.
Rich, you may have some knowledge of this, but do you think that Rutschman is on the opening day roster or do you think the Orioles keep him in the minors for a month to gain an extra year of service time. Also Rich, do you think Richie Martin is still in the Orioles future plans. It seems that some of the luster has come off his prospect status. And one last thing; I'm a John Means fan, hope he stays in an Oriole uniform for a long time, but if he could bring back an Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill and others like Bedard did, I think you have to make the trade. Thanks Rich for your insight.
G-man, by the time the 2022 season begins there will be a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. One of the issues being negotiated is service time manipulation, so I won't predict anything regarding it.
However, the coming of Rutschman is the best tool the Orioles can use to promote the 2022 season, so I would guess that he would be on the roster to begin 2022.
Ramon Urias' play at shortstop seems to make him the possible regular shortstop to begin 2022. Martin has lost nearly two full seasons due to injuries, and next year will be vital for him because there are so many infield prospects who should be ready by later in 2022 or 2023.
As for Means, I'm sure if there was a deal like the one they got for Erik Bedard around, they'd consider it. But, they desperately need Means to anchor a very young an inexperienced starting rotation. As bad as this season has been, it would have been worse without him. Trading him just as some of your better prospects are about to join the team doesn't seem wise.
Once you have Rodriguez and some others in place, you could consider it, but he's only entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, there's no urgency.
And, thank you for your encouragement.
The 2022 season will not begin without a new CBA, and I suspect negotiations. usually contentious, will be even more so because of the behaviors of the O's and some other teams. There has long been talk of the O's not putting deserving players on the 40-man so that they can play minor league ball in case of an impasse. Meanwhile, the team's own treatment of players is an invitation to grievances. The flagrancy of the behavior cannot please either labor or other management, so I foresee stormy seas ahead, especially in the area of player control and manipulation, which is at the heart of The Plan.
Unless the CBA changes, according to Rutschman's contract he will start next season at Norfolk and be brought up sometime around the 1st of May. That is the word from the management of the Norfolk Tides as of now. Subject to change. Hopefully this is the case.
Unless the CBA changes? Surely it will change. Thank you for an illustration (Rutschman) of the kind of
finagling that is crying out for change. It looks very tidy but really makes no sense. Surely Rutschman, after spring training, doesn't need another month of preparation or rehab or whatever at Norfolk. But the Tides will sell tickets, and the O's will sell season tickets, both using his name. Money will be made, and the O's fans will start the season paying top dollar to watch the understudy play behind the plate.
For me, watching Rutschman for the rest of this year and beginning next year is a plus for me, but he's ready to move into the big leagues. Right now it's all about control.
I can't believe there is anything in Rutschman's contract that reads he will start the 2022 season at Norfolk. How would the Orioles have known when he signed his contract in July 2019 that there would be no minor league season in 2020. Had there been a conventional minor league season in 2020, Rutschman would have been in the big leagues by now. I believe the CBA will take care of service time manipulation.
I’ll bet that he doesn’t break camp with the varsity to control him for another yr, he SHOULD break camp without though, again, I’m pretty sure he’ll remember how he was treated the first chance he hits FA, I hope he’s an O’s lifer, don’t see it though…go O’s…
CP, I believe Rich has got it right, the new CBA will close the loophole of service time manipulation. There will be nothing for AR to remember. Hopefully, the new CBA will address the flaws of arbitration, including timing for eligibility and other arcane rules of so called equity. VG Jr. is a great example of the hypocrisy. A triple crown season, but no reward as part of the system. Jays would have to offer an extension and he may even turn that down because arbitration years overpay better than free agency. The Union is just as much as fault as the owners for these crazy, and often, unfair rules.
He may remember that he didn't play in 2021 despite being head above heels a better catcher than anybody else the team had.
Hey BRR ... Adley himself has already said he's happy be processed the way he is and that he's not ready to be in the Big Leages! Get reel dude!
Mid-September & we’re in evaluation mode, shouldn’t that have been this whole season…go O’s…
Lets face it ... the whole September call up thing has always been a joke. It's simply an advertisement for the crappy teams to sell some tickets for the following season.
Concerning rising prospects, what 6 players should the Orioles send to the Arizona Fall League?
A very big question that needs answering is what is the main explanation for why, in the aggregate, the talent level of the Oriole roster is so weak relative to other clubs, especially in pitching.
1. Is it a conscious or unconscious strategy by management of losing so as to have access to top draft choices?
or
2. Is it ownership putting a suffocating spending limit on player salaries? If so, is the explanation a) that ownership is extraordinarily cheap, b) that they think the money saved on player salaries will exceed the current and future declines in tickets bought by a disillusioned fan base, or c) part of the strategy for preparing to sell the team?
WorldlyView, sadly, and I’m sure you know this, it’s nothing new. As I’ve said often on this site, you have to go back to Mussina, OVER 30 YEARS AGO, to the last truly great pitcher the O’s have developed. In all that time there is only one constant-OPACY. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE that ballpark, but that CANNOT be a coincidence.
dlg, I would suggest that there are two other possible long-term constants for the ongoing absence of a "truly great pitcher"-- one is that they're very, very rare; another is that Oriole management has not been, and is not, up to the task of teaching pitchers how to put the ball low over the plate.
WTF Vaiaika? NO future here, is he the new Wilkerson? Dope move, Mikey!
Wait, isn’t Dope good now?…go O’s…