Reviewing the Orioles’ trades of July 2018 that launched a rebuild; Bowie’s Rodriguez dominates

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• Rich, good update on Duquette's 2018 fire sale trades. Three years later, I think it's fair to say that these trades have been near total flops. With the possible exception of Zimmerman, of the 15 players acquired, none has been a significant contributor at the major league level, so far. If it wasn't clear at the time, it seems obvious now that the trades were simply designed to slash payroll, not part of a coherent rebuilding strategy.

  • Birdman, I think you have to give it another year. If Diaz or Kremer breaks out in a year, things may look different.

  • Rich, with all due respect, you yourself said you’d have to wait until 2020 or 2021 to evaluate the deals. Now I know you had no way of knowing what was gonna happen in 2020 so there’s some slack to be given there but, particularly in the case of the Machado trade, if neither Diaz nor Kremer are not only playing for, but contributing significantly, that trade was the worst. I remember getting in arguments with other O’s fans when I said they needed to trade Machado in 2017 when he was having a great season as it was already obvious to me then they weren’t gonna ever keep him. By then he was already grumbling about his contract. I’m of the belief they could’ve gotten multiple top tier prospects for him as he would’ve been under team control for one more year. Oh well, we all know what they say about hindsight.

  • Agree DL, they waited a yr too long to trade Manny...go O’s...

  • I agree it is fair to say these trades are near total flops. The only good that might come from them is possibly Zimmerman & International Signing Bonus Money. The ones that hurt most are 1. Machado. Who they should have traded at the end of the 2016 season. Especially when you know your not going to resign him and that's on Ownership & the GM. I live in the MW & the Cards wanted Machado in a bad way. Just think if they traded him then (Best 3B in the AL & 2yr Team Control) You think you might have gotten a package of Dakota Hudson, Jordan Hicks, Flaherty or Weaver & DeJong. A Bedard type trade. 2. Britton. Again, You know your not going to resign him so trade him at his peak value. After the 2016 season (Best CL & 2yr Team Control) If Diaz & Kremer don't pan out you got nothing for the best 3B at the time.

• Those trades are looking really bad. Every GM in the league saw Duquette coming. I think that this might be the worst fire sale by a baseball GM. If anyone considers Dan for a job, this article will be very useful.

• Please don't ask me to explain why -- because I can't -- but I still think Dean Kremer could be a solid pitcher for Baltimore. I guess more than anything, I like that the guy sits at 95-96 mph, and you can't find guys like that everywhere. But to echo what Birdman wrote: these trades do look like flops.

  • I agree with ptjhu to a degree about Kremer. Keep using him as a starter in the minors but as Rodriguez, Hall, Bauman etc... come up and if Kremer hasn't figured it by then move him to the bullpen and use him as a middle reliever. His stuff may play up as a middle reliever better than as a starter. It did for Britton.

• These trades were horrendous. Diaz can’t stay on the field. Kremer suddenly can’t find the plate. Tate has been bad. Phillips has been terrible. Cody Carroll has sucked. The only one you can say that has done is zimmermann. I never understood trading Gausman. He still had a year of control left. And the fact that Duquette thought it was a good idea to throw O’Day in that trade to weigh down the return shows how dysfunctional that regime really was. None of the returns have contributed extensively. The trade Elias has made seems to have been worked out for us. I don’t how duquette evaluated anyone of these guys and said let’s trade for him.

  • Fire sale is the key. Yes those trades were hastily made, and very ill timed.

    But "That" regime? That regime is essentially the same regime as we see today. Duquette was instructed to slash the payroll, and it isn't exactly as if Elias has built it back up. When it really comes down to it, then and now is all on ownership.

    • I agree with Boog Robinson Robinson it's all on Ownership then and now. I am going to judge Elias on his trades of Mancini and other's and hopefully he is given the support from ownership. I am I wrong to say that the O's demand for Mancini should be 3- 4 prospects and one of the prospects has to be listed on MLB's Top 100 list.

  • Man you got that right! Duquette wasn't in professional baseball for 9 years when we brought him in and he won't ever be again because of these fiasco of trades that put the Orioles in this position today!
    Boston knew they wouldn't be able to re-sign Mookie Betts so they traded him and David (over priced) Price as a salary dump to the Dodgers and received outfielder Alex Verdugo (L.A.’s top prospect), shortstop Jeter Downs (their third-highest ranked prospect on the 2020 Top 100 list, at No. 44) and catcher Connor Wong (No. 28).
    So you want to blame someone for the current Orioles mess, START RIGHT THERE! Talk about tanking - START RIGHT THERE!

• Trades were all mostly busts, how come it seems even at AA or AAA our pitchers never go more than 5? Was there a decree organizationally that they didn’t want their pitchers to go longer than 5? Rare to see any O’s pitcher get extended beyond 5...go O’s...

  • Ray, Orioles have lots of guys they think can be starters in the minors. That’s why you’re seeing many five inning-starts followed by four-inning relief outings. The “piggyback starters” are also a way of try to make sure innings are limited since these pitchers had no games last season.

  • Agree, none of the minors had seasons last year, haven’t noticed other teams just going five innings, thx & go O’s...

• Losin pop stings because of his talent. Diaz and Kremer I think will both be fine. Check back next year. Zimmerman has been decent. Tate has the talent. Still need to harnass it effectively and consistently. Good too Carmona playing now. So there are a few pieces from these trades that could potentially workout but a lot of duds from Duquette too. Elias seems to bring in better potential talent. Farm will feel even stronger when Kjerstad Mayo and baumler actually play in a game too.

  • Yes I agree,I think Kremer and Zimmerman both have a chance to be solid and Diaz as well. Tate has not been that bad either. The trades were not as bad as some think, look at the other side, those teams got mediocre or lousy production out of all of the players we traded and only Britton is still on the same team.

• Rich, thank you for the write up.

  Maybe in a few years these fellows will become MLB players and turn this joke of a franchise around.

  That said obviously the biggest problem the Os have is that they continue to dump any decent pitching they have for half baked prospects. This so called tanking needs to stop.

  • You’re welcome, oc.

• Kraemer may still work out or he might be another victim of rush them to the big leagues .
  Hopefully he has a minor injury that’s causing him to pull his fastball and not get on top of his breaking pitches or he is a victim of the horrendous catching situation . Rich I’d like to know who calls the pitches . I’d also like to see what working with AD might do .

  The trades listed are all fire sales where the other clubs new that they had Duquette over a barrel couple that with a dysfunctional organization that thought they could compete up until the week before the trade deadline and you get Diaz and Kraemer and a throw in instead of holding out for a May or a Lux to be added .

  The pitcher ,Cameron Bishop ,that followed Rodriguez last night was nearly not an Oriole because Duquette and the front office failed to fax the proper papers to MLB . I’m guessing they had mercy on Bishop rather than the Orioles.

  I think Elias may have the freedom to maneuver more than Duquette but he frankly needs to call Hyde and his coaches on the carpet for the atrocious lack of fundamentals.

• Time for a review of standing middle infielder options for the Orioles...

  MLB level performance from Baseball Reference oWAR dWAR WAR BA OPS

  Urias 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.246 0.714
  Ruiz -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.167 0.550
  Wilkerson -0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.167 0.419
  Valaika -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.200 0.532
  Leyba -0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.000 0.083

  AAA level performance from Baseball Reference BA OPS Range/9 innings and Fielding Pct

  Urias 0.258 0.823 4.22 0.974 (fielding stats for SS)
  McCoy 0.225 0.662 3.59 0.928 (SS)
  Leyba 0.344 1.050 3.76 1.000 (SS at both AAA Norfolk and AAA Reno)
  J Jones 0.299 0.947 3.76 0.914 (2B)

  Sooooo, anxiously awaiting to hear (again) that Urias is a failure and should be dropped from the 40 man immediately for no other reason than you few folks don't like him because why exactly?

  Moves supported by stats and not emotions, seem to be Galvis to IL out of necessity, Valaika and Wilkerson to Norfolk (Fangraphs show Valaika with 1 option available and Wilkerson with 3 options available). Bring up Urias, Jones, and Leyba. Urias has already performed much better than both Valaika and Wilkerson at MLB 2021 and Jones and Leyba should be given an opportunity to show they too can perform better than Valaika and Wilkerson.

• Really depressing that the trades haven't been fruitful so far. Maybe Kremer becomes a lights out bullpen addition and Diaz 4th/sometime OF starter. This sums up why Duquette wasn't retained - no ability to get owner buy-in, getting maximum value through trades and instilling a clear vision throughout the organization.

• Until someone proves otherwise, I totally agree with M>J. I really like and respect Valaika and Wilkerson. They TRY to play the game the right way. They might even be valuable as a utility player on a contending team. But it’s time to move on and see what Jones and Leyba have to offer.

  I have a question for O’s chatter. What decent pitching would you like back? Please don’t say Gausman until you see what the Giants are paying him. We will never be spending money like that unless Bill Gates buys the team. Hey, that’s a good idea.

  • Here is a 2021 salary run down of some bigger name players traded since 2018:

    Machado $32M
    Britton $13M
    Brach $570.5K (35 yrs old)
    Gausman $18.9M
    O'Day $1.75M
    Schoop $4.5M

    Bundy $8.3M
    Givens $4.05M
    Castro $1.7M

    I would have liked to see Yaz get a chance with the O's before being traded and I would have liked to see Pop protected before the 2020 Rule 5 draft instead of an older pitcher, like Valdez for example, being kept on the 40-man roster. Other than that, just about all of the players traded 2018 through now are either too expensive or too old to make a good argument for being on the rebuilding Orioles 40 man roster.

    • Thanks for the salary run down. Schoop was making quite a bit more than now when with the O's, that is why Milwaukee non-tendered. Even with his lack of performance there after the trade, he likely would not have had to take a salary cut through arbitration. Villar was making $4.5M with the O's, but was projected to make $10.1 M thru arbitration, which is why he was non-tendered (he signed w/Miami for $8.1M, was traded to Toronto, which released him at the end of 2020 season. Signed with the Mets for ~$5M). One of the things that I hope is addressed with new CBA is arbitration and service time rules.

• Rich... thank you for picking up on my comment on June 25th about the lack of performance the O’s have gotten from the so called “fire sale”. As I wrote in the post I still have all the names of all the mostly wanna-be’s we got in the exchange for legitimate professional ball players. Your review was just what I was looking for and, in reading some of the comments above, just what some of your other readers wanted to know. Also, thanks for the continued update on the minors. All I have time for is a scan of the box scores so the narrative surely helps.

  • Ekim, you were one of a number people who commented on the trades, and I appreciate you taking the time to read thoroughly. Glad you like the minor league updates. They seem to be popular.

• Gonna go against the grain a little and not totally bash the trades. Like previously mentioned I think Kremer's got potential(just leave him at one spot to work into a groove--no up and down)/Diaz jury's not right--gotta stay healthy. I do remember the O's originally wanted Buehler/Verdugo. Woulda been nice. Britton's on the IL again. Yankees signed a "Lemon" Trade was a push(depending on Tate). Zimmerman from Atlanta is ok,Carmona,/Encarnacuon--too early. And finally Schoop. Seems MLB GMs saw his career sliding down(despite a recent hot streak). Giving the trades a grade of "C" with the potential of Kremer,Zimmerman,Diaz keeping it from "D" territory. Getting into the International Market positively overshadows any of that anyway.

• I see a lot of Duquette bashing going on here lately. Short memories galore. Focusing on trades made late in his tenure while ignoring the 5 year period where the O's notched more wins than any team in mlb and had 3 playoff appearances. One of those was an ALCS. You conveniently forget all that while focusing on 2 or 3 questionable trades at the end of his tenure.

  When Elias beats Duquette's numbers and makes the playoffs 3X, than by all means jump on the bandwagon and bash Duquette. Until then (hint...it will be a LONG wait).....he couldn't carry Duquette's jock strap much less manage an MLB team better.

  • Worked with scouting department to draft G Rodriguez and DL Hall too among others.

  • I'm actually not a complete Duquette basher - I would give his overall performance a mixed grade ... that said I would note a couple of points in comparing Duquette and Elias ... first, the Orioles 2012-2016 run was due, in large part, to players that Duquette's predecessor, Andy MacPhail, traded for or drafted, including Jones, Tillman, Davis, Hardy, and Machado ... and Duquette had a much, much larger payroll to work with than Elias has, including Duquette's two failed $50 million free agent pitcher signings, Ubaldo and Cobb.

    • Duquette's results speak for themselves. He doesn't need me to advocate for him. I've supported a modest payroll increase to help Elias find some pitching. That's just not going to happen.

      So I'm left with the facts about Duquette record here at Baltimore. It speaks for itself.

  • I don't have a short memory. You underestimate the value of Buck Showalter as manager of those teams. Buck took the ragtag crew that Trembley could not win with and got them to perform better, then DD came in when McPhail left suddenly, but with keys in place, including Jones and having drafted Manny and trading for JJ. I also remember Dan's trade of Arrietta and Strop to the Cubs for journeyman starter Feldman. A really, really bad trade.

    • Duquette's record here in Baltimore speaks for itself. It may be a full decade before ANY GM can equal it or top it.

  • The big question mark is does Mikey really have less of a budget than DD, kind of like his & Hydes contracts, no one knows...go O’s...

    • There are several web sites that track MLB team payrolls ... in 2016, the last season the O's made the playoffs, the payroll was about $115 million ... in 2021, the payroll is about $45 million, and more than half of that is Davis and the remaining balance on Cobb's salary.

      • So the answer is No. One budget was twice the other. Take out Davis and the difference is even more. I don't give Duquette ALL the credit for those successful years, just his fair share. It's clear that he had a good MLB Caliber Manager and an Owner willing to spend a little more $$ than he (they) are willing to spend currently.

        The fire sale he engaged in was probably not his choosing. But I speculate there.

        All I DO know is the Orioles had the most WINS in MLB during the 5 season period (2012 - 2016). Duquette was our GM during that period. He deserves some of the credit and less negative commentary than he's receiving here. At least until someone, anyone does better

  • Understand what you’re saying B-man, but salaries & budget are two different things, we’ve no idea how much Mikey would be allowed to spend (budget) vs what he has spent (salaries), and then comparing the same to DD’s...go O’s...

  • I think what a lot if people are overlooking is the budget. It’s easy to look at salaries but don’t forget the facility they’re building in the Dominican Republic. Tho, as far as I know, they haven’t put a price tag on it it has got to be a very expensive project. I’m even willing to cut the team some slack, just a little, on their current unwillingness to spend on the big club as in the long run this should be money very well spent. They’ve also upgraded the facility in Sarasota to be among the finest of any MLB team. Listen, I’m with everyone else here that is beyond frustrated with what I’m seeing in Baltimore, and as an older fan my patience is wearing thin, but again, I’m hopeful the future will remind me if the past, when they were annual contenders.

• Rich, thanks for the update. It is interesting to me that only Britton resigned with the team to which he was traded, not as a closer, but as a set-up guy. Gausman and Schoop were released not only by the team to which they were traded, but were non-tendered by the 2nd team as well. Glad they are both doing better with their current teams. Schoop is rumored to be available via trade at the deadline, as the Tigers are rebuilding. As for the trades being busts, I am not there yet. The O's have 6-7 pieces remaining from those trades who have some value, the teams to which the players were traded have virtually nothing to show for their trades.

  • Phil, you are correct. Brad Brach, who I respect greatly, is on his fifth organization since the trade.

• PLAYOFFS? Did you say PLAYOFFS?
  Ok, let’s say that we didn’t make these trades. And that we also resigned Cruz and Markakis and let Davis go. Where would we get the pitching? I see us no better than the Angels.

  Again, the bottom line is $$$$ and the lack of it. If you want to buy a playoff berth then dump the O’s and start rooting for the Skankees. Otherwise, give the process a chance.

  • Like I said.....when Elias (the process you implore me to give a chance) starts duplicating Duquette's & Buck's 5 year run (2012 - 2017) of success, then I might have a few seconds to talk about Elias's "process". Until then......not worth my time.

    Duquette had success here in Baltimore.

    Elias has NOT.

    • (2012 - 2016)

• Huh weird? Just heard Galvis to 10 day IL, Wilkerson and Wade to Norfolk, and McKenna, Urias, and Leyba to the Orioles. Weird?

• Thanks for the great article. I keep trying to keep track of the trades and have a hard time with all of the deals. Just for the simple fact that there isn't one player in all of the trades who you can say is a top notch player and is playing in the majors now tells me that we should be graded at a C- at best.

  I keep looking at the deal the O's made with Boston to get Kevin Miiler. Everyone keeps saying the O's couldn't get a lot for Manny because the Dodgers only rented him for the post season. Well didn't we trade for Miller for just the post season run back in 2014? Some people are calling it one of the most lopsided deals in history. It just would have been nice to see just one player that is performing at a high level on the majors.
  "Trade Retrospective: Red Sox trade Andrew Miller to the Orioles for Eduardo Rodríguez - Beyond the Box Score" https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2020/2/20/21143947/eduardo-rodriguez-andrew-miller-red-sox-orioles-trade-retrospective

  • I have to say that E Rodriguez's 4.79 ERA at Bowie in 2014 was a sure foretelling that he would 19-6 in the majors in 2019!

  • Thank you, John. See you at the beach during All-Star break.

• Hyde and the coaching staff have to school this team better in fundamentally sound baseball. Poor base-running skills, terrible pitching and lack of plate control is why we're 30 games under .500. This is the third year of a five year rebuild, and unless something astonishing happens in the second half of '21, another 100 loss season looms ahead, with no hope of even a .500 ballclub beyond.

• Very good update Rich..

  It's very easy to forget that Dan Duquette made those deals wayyyy late in the trade windows of the players involved.. Thanks to the unfounded optimism of Showalter and the stubbornness of Angelos...

  So it's easy to criticize Dan Duquette. Dan receives (surprisingly) little love in these precincts BUT if the Orioles made those trades ONE YEAR earlier we would not be suffering through this stultifying and endless rebuild....

  Lastly, I am quite jaundiced by the slow-assed development of Yusniel Diaz.... step-it-up pal.....if you haven't noticed---the Orioles have needed you in a big way for over the couple years....

  • Thank you, Mike.

  • But BC, they have a plan...lol...go O’s...

  • Agree completely BC

• Excellent article Rich! Even though I haven't commented in a while, I still read every day. I follow most of the pre/post game interviews so I hear you there too.

  From playing fantasy baseball I'm familiar with the players we traded who are still in the bigs, but it was very informative reading how many are done or on the farm. It must've taken a lot of research to compile all that info. Thanks again.

  On a different topic, it's interesting to see the commenters do the blame game on the GMs. To those defending DD, just stop, and stop now. He inherited a stacked team and rode it out. He traded/or didn't re-sign Markakis, Cruz, and many others. And let's not forget the worst deal in history, C Davis. He even had discussions with Toronto right in the middle of his tenure. We can try to put DD's incompetence off on Angelos, but to use this defense means that DD was a spineless puppet for not resigning.

  DD did sign G Rodriguez, hopefully he'll be a future Cy Young.

  As for Elias, I'm still a supporter, but I'll lose a lot of faith in him if he doesn't do something about player development throughout the system. It appears Gunner may have been brought up too quickly, a lot of streaky playing and the O's are making LL mistakes.. Matt Blood should be answering some HARD questions, and if we don't get answers from Blood, Hyde or Elias, maybe our media insider can put them to the fire.(wink wink Rich).

  Elias has implemented a presence in Latin America, stripped down dead weight like Brady Anderson, etc. But there still isn't too much we can give fault, or credit to Elias as of now. His first draft pick only played 1 month at Delmarva before this year. Yeah, Adley was at the training camp last year, but that's far from facing different pitching and the intensity that comes with winning and losing.

  Anyway, that's my thoughts on that, thanks again Rich for the article.

  • Thank you, Joe.

• Rich - nice summary - and appreciated. As you know, I am a rebuilding skeptic at best. Certainly when it comes to rebuilding from NOTHING. Frankly, the two best things that I see from all this (aside from Means and Mancini -- who is REALLY STRUGGLING at the plate) and Mullins and Freddy.

  Santander? Maybe. The guys we got from all these trades? This looks like a huge zero or close to it. I am very disappointed. So far, I would say, we've been snookered. Take aways?
  1, The Os do not want to spend any money and will therefore finish in last place for the foreseeable future.
  2. The "management" seems to be a poor judge of upcoming talent.

  Free agents. Many teams got good ones. What did the Os get? Franco is just AWFUL, as was predicted. Call 1-800-468-5865 (Got junk). Mean? Yes, it is. Not so much for Franco but for the people who signed him. I have watched him in Lehigh Valley and with the Phillies, who gave up on him. Disaster. Freddy? Will never be a star but to me is an inspiration. I love this guy. Matt Harvey? So you take a chance and see. Great stuff is irrelevant if you cannot command your pitches. Jury is out.

  How do you rebuild without some quality, seasoned players in key spots. Nunez, Ruiz, Hanser? Are you telling me they would not have been better than what we have? Frankly, I don't care about "International Money." It is a fad. Give me smart players, who like Freddy REALLY COME to play, have a load of energy, and want to win. AND can pay defense!!! Get some decent pitchers. We don't have a catcher or third baseman or second baseman. Freddy is worth his weaknesses at short.

  Sorry - we have taken a huge step backwards.

  Frank