Dean Jones Report

Trey Mancini bullish at Norfolk: Jason Garcia’s stock still slipping

By Dean Jones

Posted on May 10, 2016

Of the six healthy prospects whom I track each week in the Orioles’ minor league system, four are bullish and two are bearish in the latest edition of “The Dean Jones Report.”

It’s a good sign that there are more positives than negatives this week, right?

As regular readers know, every Tuesday I monitor how the minor leaguers on Baseball America’s Orioles 2016 Top 10 prospect list have played in the previous seven days.

I’ve assigned the seven players – right-handed pitchers Dylan Bundy, Mychal Givens and Mike Wright are excluded since they’re in the major leagues – a bullish (rising stock) or bearish (falling stock) rating, based on their recent performances.

Although he hasn’t pitched in a minor league game in nearly two years, right-hander Hunter Harvey is included below because I’m sure Orioles fans are interested in his rehabilitation process. For each player, I’ve also listed some statistics and a link to his MILB.com Player Page.

I’ve also selected a handful of additional players who are either surging or falling in the Orioles’ minor league system. The names in this section could change from week to week, depending on who’s hot and who’s not. An Orioles player’s brother is one of the minor leaguers who is surging this week, thanks to a lengthy hitting streak.

Finally, at the bottom of the post, I’ve listed the upcoming schedule for each of the minor league affiliates in case you’d like to head to the ballpark and then share your thoughts in the comments section below. I’d love to hear what you think.

Now, let’s get to this week’s update:

TOP PROSPECTS
No. 2: Hunter Harvey, RHP, extended spring
BEARISH
Statistics: N/A
MILB.com Player Page

As I mentioned last week, the 21-year-old right-hander continues to battle injuries. Harvey is expected to be out another three to five weeks after undergoing sports hernia surgery last Tuesday. The 2013 first-round pick (22nd overall) struck out 106 batters in 87 2/3 innings for Low-A Delmarva in 2014, but he hasn’t seen the field in a regular-season game since July of that year. In the past seven drafts, the Orioles have selected three high school right-handed pitchers in the first round – Harvey, Dylan Bundy (fourth overall in 2011) and Matt Hobgood (fifth overall in 2009). It remains to be seen whether Harvey will follow Bundy to the major leagues or Hobgood out of the organization. Only time will tell.

No. 3: Chance Sisco, C, Double-A Bowie
BULLISH
Statistics: .342 average, 0 HRs, 11 RBIs, 6 2Bs in 23 games
MILB.com Player Page

The 21-year-old catcher remains on a tear for the Baysox over the past two weeks. Since Trey Mancini was promoted to Norfolk on April 25, Sisco is batting .394 (13-for-33) with five multihit performances in 10 games. The 2013 second-round selection continues to lead all active Eastern League players in average – by a wide margin. While former teammate Corban Joseph technically ranks first in the league with a .349 average, he was called up to Norfolk late last week. Somewhat remarkably, Sisco – who has a .342 average overall – is the only other player who is hitting above .300 and has enough at-bats to qualify among the league leaders. If there’s one criticism of Sisco so far this year, it’s that he has just six extra-base hits – all doubles – in 23 games.

No. 4: Jomar Reyes, 3B, High-A Frederick
BEARISH
Statistics: .238 average, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 18 runs in 29 games
MILB.com Player Page

The 19-year-old third baseman hit successfully in three of his four starts over the past week – he also struck out as a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning last Tuesday – but he only has four extra-base hits in his past 17 games. In that span, Reyes is batting .213 (13-for-61) with only three multihit performances. Despite his up-and-down performance through the first month-plus of the season, it’s important to remember that he’s the youngest player in the eight-team Carolina League. And, on any given night, Reyes is facing pitchers who are generally three to six years older than he is. The growing pains are to be expected, but I’m listing him as “bearish” until he gets on a bit of a hot streak.

No. 6: Chris Lee, LHP, Double-A Bowie
BULLISH
Statistics: 5-0, 2.30 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.89 WHIP in 31 1/3 innings
MILB.com Player Page

Lee, 23, has earned a victory in each of his five starts for the Baysox this season. The most recent came Saturday, when he held Erie to one run and five hits in six innings as Bowie won the first game of a doubleheader, 2-1. Lee, whom the Orioles acquired in May 2015 from the Houston Astros, is tied for the Eastern League lead in wins and ranks among the league leaders in WHIP. Overall, opponents are hitting just .186 against him this season. And lefties only have three hits in 35 at-bats (.086). Despite only striking out 12 batters so far this year – including none in his last start – he continues to get the job done.

No. 7: Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Low-A Delmarva
BULLISH
Statistics: .227 average, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 26 Ks in 26 games
MILB.com Player Page

The 2015 first-round pick (36th overall) appears to have finally broken free from his season-long slump. Although his eight-game hitting streak was snapped when he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in the Shorebirds’ 9-3 loss on the road against Asheville on Monday, Mountcastle has raised his average from a season-low .132 on April 18 to his current .227. In that stretch, the 19-year-old shortstop has hit safely in 12 of his 16 games. In Delmarva’s 16-7 loss to the Tourists on Saturday evening, Mountcastle was 4-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored. He’s still striking out about once per game (26 strikeouts in 26 games), but he deserves some recognition for his recent success.

No. 8: Trey Mancini, 1B, Triple-A Norfolk
BULLISH
Statistics: .278 average, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 15 Ks in 14 games (at Norfolk)
MILB.com Player Page

Mancini, 24, has at least two hits in four of his past six games for Norfolk. In that stretch, the 2013 eighth-round selection is batting .346 (9-for-26) with three doubles and his first home run at the Triple-A level. That longball was a solo shot in the eighth inning Friday – immediately after Christian Walker hit a two-run home run – as the Tides rallied from a 7-1 deficit to beat Durham, 9-7, in 10 innings. Mancini also doubled and scored the go-ahead run in the 10th. Like Mountcastle, Mancini is striking out about once per game (32 strikeouts in 31 games between Bowie and Norfolk). You’d like to see him cut down that rate before he gets a chance in the major leagues.

No. 9: D.J. Stewart, OF, Low-A Delmarva
BEARISH
Statistics: .226 average, 1 HR, 12 RBIs, 21 BBs, 25 Ks in 27 games
MILB.com Player Page

The 22-year-old outfielder snapped an 0-for-10 streak with a double and scored Delmarva’s first run in the seventh inning of a 9-3 loss to Asheville on Monday. And then, in his next at-bat in the ninth, Stewart hit his first home run of the year. Despite the two hits Monday – in addition to going 3-for-3 with a pair of doubles and two RBIs in the Shorebirds’ 7-4 win over Lexington on Wednesday – the 2015 first-round selection (25th overall) is batting just .250 (5-for-20) with six strikeouts in May. It’s above his season average, but it’s still not what you want from a top draft pick. Stewart has struck out at least once in eight of his past 10 games, but his 21 walks this season rank fourth in the South Atlantic League.

SURGING

Jay Gonzalez, OF, Frederick: The 2014 10th-round pick is batting .308 (8-for-26) with seven stolen bases in seven games this month. Gonzalez, 24, is tied for second in the Carolina League with 17 stolen bases this season. He has been caught only twice – both times over the weekend against Potomac.

Joe Gunkel, RHP, Norfolk: Since being called up to the Tides on May 1, the 24-year-old right-hander has allowed only two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. In his best start so far this season, Gunkel – who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox for outfielder Alejandro De Aza last June – gave up one run and six hits in seven innings at Durham on Saturday.

Corban Joseph, 2B, Norfolk: The 27-year-old brother of Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph had his 21-game hitting streak snapped when he went 0-for-4 in Norfolk’s 5-3 loss to Charlotte on Monday. But in that stretch – spanning two levels – Joseph batted .384 (33-for-86). He has two doubles, a home run and three RBIs in four games since joining the Tides.

Ryan Meisinger, RHP, Delmarva: In 14 2/3 innings over eight games this year, the 22-year-old right-hander has allowed just one earned run (0.61 ERA). After walking three hitters and recording only one out in his season debut April 7, Meisinger – who has earned wins in each of his past three appearances – has 22 strikeouts and only three walks.

Yermin Mercedes, C, Delmarva: Although he has cooled off from his hot start, the 23-year-old catcher was 7-for-12 with three doubles, a home run and five RBIs in the first three games of the series against Asheville. Mercedes, who batted .272 in 64 games for the Shorebirds last season, is hitting .464 with runners in scoring position this year.

FALLING

Glynn Davis, OF, Bowie: The 24-year-old outfielder, whom the club signed as an undrafted free agent out of CCBC-Catonsville in 2010, has been known for his speed during his time with the organization. Davis has at least 19 steals in each of his first five pro seasons, but he’s 0-for-4 in stolen-base attempts for the Baysox so far this year.

Natanael Delgado, OF, Delmarva: One of two players acquired when the Orioles traded left-hander Chris Jones to the Los Angeles Angels in late March, the 20-year-old outfielder has struggled to adjust to his new organization. In 21 games with the Shorebirds, Delgado is only batting .169 (12-for-71) with 21 strikeouts.

Jason Garcia, RHP, Bowie: Once again, the 23-year-old right-hander finds himself in this category. Garcia, the Orioles’ Rule 5 pick last year, lost his third consecutive start for the Baysox on Sunday. He gave up six runs (one earned) and nine hits in five innings as Bowie fell to Erie, 13-6. Garcia is 1-4 with a 5.84 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in five starts this season.

Robert Strader, RHP, Delmarva: The 2015 12th-round selection has an 11.68 ERA through seven appearances for the Shorebirds this season. In 12 1/3 innings, Strader has given up 18 runs (16 earned), 19 hits and 13 walks. He has allowed three or more runs five times, including four in one inning during Delmarva’s 9-3 loss to Asheville on Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Triple-A Norfolk
May 10 – vs. Charlotte (doubleheader), 5:05 p.m.
May 11 – vs. Charlotte, 6:35 p.m.
May 12 – vs. Charlotte, 12:05 p.m.
May 13 – vs. Buffalo, 7:05 p.m.
May 14 – vs. Buffalo, 7:05 p.m.
May 15 – vs. Buffalo, 1:05 p.m.
May 16 – at Pawtucket, 7:05 p.m.

Double-A Bowie
May 10 – vs. Hartford, 6:35 p.m.
May 11 – vs. Hartford, 11:05 a.m.
May 12 – at Erie, 6:35 p.m.
May 13 – at Erie, 6:35 p.m.
May 14 – at Erie, 6:35 p.m.
May 15 – at Erie, 1:35 p.m.
May 16 – OFF

High-A Frederick
May 10 – vs. Wilmington, 7 p.m.
May 11 – vs. Wilmington, 7 p.m.
May 12 – vs. Wilmington, 11 a.m.
May 13 – vs. Myrtle Beach, 7 p.m.
May 14 – vs. Myrtle Beach, 6 p.m.
May 15 – vs. Myrtle Beach, 2 p.m.
May 16 – vs. Myrtle Beach, 7 p.m.

Low-A Delmarva
May 10 – at Asheville, 11:05 a.m.
May 11 – OFF
May 12 – vs. Greensboro, 7:05 p.m.
May 13 – vs. Greensboro, 7:05 p.m.
May 14 – vs. Greensboro, 7:05 p.m.
May 15 – vs. Greensboro, 2:05 p.m.
May 16 – vs. West Virginia, 7:05 p.m.