A crucial offseason has begun for the Orioles, and the next few weeks should be fascinating. With a lockout expected to begin on December 1st at 11:59 p.m., the Orioles have just over three weeks to remake their disappointing team of 2026 into a contender for 2027.
Here are some questions about the coming weeks:
Will the Orioles be more active in the trade or free-agent market?
President of baseball operations Mike Elias has pulled off several unexpected moves over the last year.
In November, he traded the onetime top pitching prospect in minor league baseball, Grayson Rodriguez, to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for outfielder Taylor Ward.
It turned out to be a trade that hasn’t worked out for either side, yet.
Rodriguez, who hadn’t pitched for the final 14 months he was Orioles’ property, had a 6.02 ERA in 20 starts for the Angels while Ward, who was supposed to fortify the Orioles’ right-handed hitting weakness, hit only seven home runs after setting a career high with 36 in 2025.
The Orioles could still benefit from the trade since reliever Alex Hoppe, who was part of the package they received from Seattle at the August trade deadline, showed promise.
To fill Rodriguez’s void in the rotation, the Orioles traded for Shane Baz, sending four prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays. A little over three months later, Elias signed Baz to a four-year, $68 million extension.
Just ahead of the trade deadline, Elias signed Kyle Bradish to a five-year, $90 million extension.
Then at the deadline, Elias shockingly traded the overall top pick in the 2019 draft, Adley Rutschman, to Boston for five players, including four top 30 prospects.
That’s quite a year of surprises for Elias, and the next few weeks could feature more of the unexpected.
At the moment, the outlook for 2027 looks cloudy. Gunnar Henderson is where Rutschman was a year ago, two seasons away from free agency, and coming off a disappointing season.
Outfielders Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser and second baseman Jackson Holliday had subpar seasons.
The Orioles probably can’t make a significant deal without trading one or more of them as well as some of the pitching prospects they’ve accumulated.
While there are some useful players on the free-agent market, it looks to be one of the weaker markets of recent years and there don’t appear to be many difference-makers.
There’s no slugger on the level of Pete Alonso, another Elias move that wasn’t foreseen.
The Orioles aren’t likely to be bidding for left-hander Tarik Skubal, easily the top player available.
Alonso’s five-year, $155 million free-agent deal seems about the top for what the Orioles might spend.
Skubal could get nine years and $425 million on his contract, MLBTradeRumors.com. That’s not a contract the Orioles will come close to.
The Orioles need to replace left-hander Trevor Rogers, a solid starter. He won’t accept the $23.15 million qualifying offer and is sure to get multi-year contracts averaging $23.15 million or more annually.
In a conventional offseason, the Orioles could be cautious at first and take time to ascertain the market. They can’t do that this year. They also have a new general manager, Jared Banner, who’s been cramming in advance of next week’s General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas.
What do the Orioles need?
They can use some starters, probably two more. A left-handed reliever would be nice as would a backup catcher. They definitely need right-handed hitting outfielders with punch.
Can they get all this within three weeks? There’s no reason they can’t, especially with the market expected to move quickly.
If this lockout follows the pattern in 2021-2022, spring training will be shortened, and there will be only a few days between the time the dispute is settled and spring training is underway.
While the Orioles could add players then, it’s less than ideal, and they’ll probably need to do the bulk of their work between now and December 1st.
What will happen after December 1st?
After the lockout, transactions are frozen. No players can be signed to major league contracts. If an agreement is made with a player just before the lockout, as the Orioles had with starting pitcher Jordan Lyles in December 2021, the physical to complete the contract will be delayed until the lockout ends.
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