Free agency has begun, and it’s time for the Orioles to begin thinking about life without Trevor Rogers. We don’t know what the marketplace will say about Rogers, but four recent predictions indicate he’ll do well wherever he lands.
MLBTradeRumors.com thinks the left-hander, who’ll turn 29 on November 13th, is the second most attractive free agent of all, behind only two-time American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
They calculate that Rogers could get a five-year, $115 million contract, with the Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, White Sox, Mets, Braves, Twins and Padres interested along with Orioles, who surprisingly didn’t offer him an extension.
Skubal, clearly the class of this year’s market, is in line for an enormous windfall of nine years and $425 million, they believe.
FanGraphs thinks Rogers is the third most enticing free agent, behind Skubal and Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Ben Clemens estimates he’ll get a four-year, $104 million contract.
Rogers has a 3.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), as calculated by FanGraphs, trailing only Skubal among pitchers. His BaseballReference.com WAR is 2.2.
ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel rates Rogers as the 10th-best free agent, and he thinks a four-year, $76 million deal is coming his way.
McDaniel compares him with two recent left-handed free agent starters, Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80 million) and Ranger Suárez (five years, $130 million).
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, a former major league general manager, has Rogers 16th in his top 40. He thinks Rogers’ contract will be for three years and $64 million.
Bowden thinks the Orioles, Pirates, White Sox and Padres are his best fits.
The Orioles have indicated that they have at least some interest in keeping Rogers, extending the $23.15 million qualifying offer on Monday. Rogers has until November 17th to accept or decline the offer. The Orioles will get a compensation pick if he signs with another club.
Since president of baseball operations Mike Elias extended two other starters in 2026 (right-handers Shane Baz, five years, $68 million and Kyle Bradish (five years, $90 million), it was expected that he’d make an effort to extend Rogers.
Rogers is 14 months older than Bradish, who turned 30 in September, and just under two years younger than the 27-year-old Baz. Both Baz and Bradish have had Tommy John surgery.
In multiple interviews during the season, Rogers expressed an eagerness to stay with the Orioles, and it seemed strange that the Orioles didn’t try for a deal during the season.
Now, it seems unlikely that Rogers will stay.
He came to the Orioles in July 2024 from Miami, and after a rough beginning with a 7.11 ERA in his four starts, he was excellent in 2025.
Rogers, who was sent to Triple-A Norfolk after those four starts, was 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts. A knee injury delayed the start of his season, and he wasn’t in the rotation until mid-June.
In 2026, Rogers was 10-11 with a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts. In his five season with the Marlins, Rogers walked 3.6 batters per nine innings. With the Orioles, he’s reduced that to 2.4. While his strikeouts have fallen from 9.3 per nine innings in Miami to 8.2 with the Orioles, so has his WHIP, from 1.385 to 1.123.
Having watched most of Rogers’ 52 starts with the Orioles, I’ve come away impressed.
There have been so many memorable moments. Last year, there were the 10 straight quality starts. He allowed only six home runs, half of which came in his final start at Yankee Stadium.
This year, there was the one hit in seven scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium on June 20th and the hard-luck loss when rightfielder Rece Hinds misplayed Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz’s fly ball into a triple because he’d forgotten to wear sunglasses.
Rogers allowed one run on three hits to the Brewers in eight innings, striking out 10. He struck out 11 when he gave up two runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings at Colorado on September 2nd. He didn’t get the win in that one, either because Andrew Kittredge allowed back-to-back doubles in the ninth inning.
In 169 2/3 innings, he walked only 39, and just one in those two starts where he struck out 21.
Rogers was impressive off the field, too. As ballplayers like to say, he went about his business professionally. An intense, private man, Rogers didn’t participate in clubhouse card games or pool tournaments, and was always available after starts, answering questions honestly and expansively.
Rogers becomes even more attractive to other teams because the free-agent market is so thin. He’s an outstanding teammate and a very hard worker.
Without him, Elias and new general manager Jared Banner will have to be industrious in attempting to find a replacement. I’m not sure they’ll find anyone better in the trade or free-agent market.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: [email protected]