When Mike Elias makes a major move, there’s little or no advance warning. Over the last 14 months, the Orioles president of baseball operations signed catcher Samuel Basallo and pitchers Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish and Yennier Cano to extensions, first baseman Pete Alonso to an enormous five-year contract and pulled off three surprising trades.
None of those moves was expected.
Elias is likely to have a truncated offseason to make his moves. If the World Series lasts seven games, it will end on Halloween, leaving barely a month until an expected lockout begins because the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1st.
Elias has worked under these conditions before. In 2021, there was also a lockout at the beginning of December, and the Orioles reached an agreement on a contract for veteran right-hander Jordan Lyles minutes before the moratorium on transactions began.
Lyles didn’t take a physical and sign until March 12th, two days after the lockout ended.
They had already signed infielder Rougned Odor, right-hander Rico Garcia and claimed relievers Bryan Baker and Cionel Pérez off waivers before the lockout began, and signed catcher Robinson Chirinos and infielder Chris Owings just as the shortened spring training started.
Five years later, Elias is likely to be more active.
It was a shock last November when the Orioles gave up on onetime top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez and traded him to the Los Angeles Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward.
After one season, it looks like a trade that didn’t help either team.
Rodriguez, who missed all of 2025 with a variety of injuries and had surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow, struggled to a 5-8 record and 6.02 ERA.
Ward, who hit 36 home runs for the Angels in 2025, hit just seven in 111 games for the Orioles, and only one at Camden Yards. He was traded to Seattle on August 3rd and failed there, hitting only .125 in 32 games.
That trade led to the Orioles sending four prospects, including right-hander Michael Forret, to the Tampa Bay Rays for Baz. Forret came back to the Orioles at the trade deadline for reliever Tyler Wells.
None of those moves was forecast.
Neither was the signing of Alonso or the trade for utility player Blaze Alexander, which worked out well.
Last year, Elias also signed reliever Ryan Helsey and outfielder Leody Taveras early in free agency. Neither acquisition moved the needle, though Helsley is likely to return next season. He has a $14 million option and after a season when he pitched in only 17 games, he’s expected to accept the option.
Elias’s biggest move at the trade deadline was the surprising deal of Rutschman to Boston for four highly rated prospects and catcher Carlos Narváez, who didn’t make an impact offensively. He hit just .104 in 33 games.
The Orioles need another starting pitcher or two, an impact left-handed reliever, some punch in the outfield and perhaps a better backup catcher behind Basallo.
The Orioles made eight deals to acquire 16 minor leaguers in July 2025, and the deals for Rutschman, Ward, Wells and starting pitcher Dean Kremer added more.
Elias is going to have to use some of those arms to get what the Orioles need to contend in 2027.
The Orioles will count on a bounce-back season from shortstop Gunnar Henderson and substantial improvements by second baseman Jackson Holliday, centerfielder Colton Cowser and rightfielder Dylan Beavers as well as an injury-free season from Jordan Westburg, who had Tommy John surgery in May.
If one or two of those happen, that’s great, but it wouldn’t be enough.
The Orioles were a 79-82 team that stayed in playoff contention until the final week of the season only because of the weakness of the rest of the American League.
Elias will have to pull off a series of surprising moves.
The free-agent market doesn’t have many tantalizing options, particularly in the outfield and among starters.
Elias has regularly bet on veteran starters on one-year contracts in recent offseasons. Lyles and Kyle Gibson worked out decently while Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Chris Bassitt weren’t as productive.
Trying to predict Elias’ moves is generally a fruitless undertaking, but the guess here is he’ll again try something unexpected to help the team become a contender again.
Though attendance rose slightly in 2026, it followed a huge drop in 2025, and fans aren’t looking to buy tickets during a lockout.
Last year, the fan base was excited by the signing of Alonso. With two straight losing seasons and a lockout looming, they’ll need much more to get excited this time.
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