Peter Schmuck: Mike Elias isn’t keeping us in suspense, but his team certainly is

Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias looked ahead to the final two months of the 2026 season during a dugout news conference on Friday afternoon and tried hard to frame the situation for all of us who are wondering whether the team will be a buyer or a seller at Monday’s trade deadline.

Will he bet on this year’s roster and attempt to upgrade it or try to reshape the club for more promising playoff runs next year and beyond?

Of course, that question has been hanging over July like a summer storm cloud, and no one really expected him to answer it for one very good reason.

Even he doesn’t know, though he made it clear that he believes the Orioles still have the potential to reach the postseason in spite of their latest rash of injuries and some obvious defensive deficiencies.

“We still are respecting our chances for 2026,” Elias said, “and this [group has] the talent to be a playoff team if we can get things pointed in the right direction. So we’re going to be doing both out in the marketplace, but we want to win tonight’s game. We want to win.”

The competitive landscape is so muddy that it is anybody’s guess which of a surprisingly large group of mediocre American League teams will reach out and grab the final wild-card playoff berth. The Orioles enter Friday night’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies 2 ½ games off the pace and in danger of getting lost in that crowd.

It’s hard to imagine that one three-game series could determine the multi-year direction of a major league franchise, but it is starting to look that way. There was speculation a week ago that the tough nine-game stretch against the first-place Braves, Detroit Tigers and Phillies would provide some litmus to help make that decision, but the O’s split the first six games in a pair of eventful series that only reinforced the notion that their future is impossible to predict.

The Orioles can make a statement with a strong series against a very tough opponent and it seems just as likely that they could start throwing the ball around and convince the front office – and the ownership group – that they need to get something for non-renewable players such as Trevor Rogers and Taylor Ward.

I’m fairly sure that would not constitute a fire sale or signal a total rebuild like the one that is currently falling short of expectations, but it still would play very poorly with a fanbase that is just getting used to seeing top-quality starting pitchers on an everyday basis.

In a perfect world, the O’s would celebrate their Hall of Fame weekend by persuading Rogers to join Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz under long-term contracts. That’s a big ask, but owner David Rubenstein recently said the resources are available to do that sort of thing.

The Orioles really should be looking to add some pitching depth right now instead of unloading it. Though the bullpen has been adequate in spite of the loss of closer Ryan Helsley, the team cannot afford too many more deflating late-inning defeats.

Even with Helsley and Félix Bautista possible to return in a matter of weeks, that might be too late to help the Orioles emerge from the middling group of playoff wannabes.

The Orioles have enough offensive talent to do that if they can get more consistent run-production from their young hitters, but one more solid right-handed hitter would certainly help.

I wrote last week that Elias should stay the course and nothing has happened since then to change my opinion. Oriole fans deserve even a slim chance to see their team play in October.