Major decisions face Orioles in upcoming weeks

On Monday, the Orioles’ offseason will be two weeks old, and while nothing has happened publicly, decisions are being made.

With a lockout almost assuredly approaching on December 1^st, November is likely to be a frantic month.

If the lockout goes as it did in the 2021-2022 offseason, it will leave the Orioles with little time to construct a team before a shortened spring training opens.

Let’s look at some questions that must be answered soon.

Will the Orioles retain any of their free agents?

Starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers will be free agents once the World Series ends. So will relievers Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge, though Akin won’t be signing anywhere soon after his Tommy John surgery in July.

The Orioles are expected to extend a qualifying offer for Rogers. If he accepts the $23.15 million, the figure the New York Post reports, he’ll be signed for 2027 and can return to the free-agent market a year from now or sign a longer-term contract with the Orioles.

Rogers is expected to decline the offer and join a market with few attractive starting pitchers.

The Orioles would receive a draft choice after Rogers signs with a new team.

The Orioles probably won’t sign Bassitt or Kittredge.

Reliever Ryan Helsey, who appeared in just 17 games due to two stints on the injured list with right elbow inflammation, has a $14 million option for 2027 that he’s expected to exercise.

Starting pitcher Zach Eflin has a $25 million mutual option that will be declined by the Orioles, who’ll pay him a $2 million buyout. Eflin had Tommy John surgery in April, and while a return to the Orioles isn’t out of the question, it won’t happen any time soon.

Outfielder Luis Robert Jr. has a $20 million option for 2027. He played in just three games after he was claimed off waivers from the New York Mets on August 31^st. That option isn’t expected to be exercised and, like Eflin, he’ll get a $2 million buyout.

First baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who played in just eight games due to a broken left foot and a strained oblique, has a $7.5 million option for 2027 that’s expected to be declined.

How many players are eligible for arbitration?

There are seven Orioles eligible for arbitration — Shortstop Gunnar Henderson, outfielders Colton Cowser and Leody Taveras, third baseman Jordan Westburg, relievers Félix Bautista, Codi Heuer and Albert Suárez.

Bautista, Cowser, Henderson and Westburg will be offered contracts for 2027.

Heuer, who never pitched in a game for the Orioles, Suárez and Taveras might not be.

The Orioles extended starters Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish and reliever Yennier Cano, removing them from the arbitration pool.

Besides those three, catcher Samuel Basallo, first baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Tyler O’Neill are under contract for 2027.

What are the biggest offseason needs for the Orioles?

Assuming Bassitt and Rogers depart, the Orioles will need another starter or two to join Baz, Bradish and Brandon Young.

Trey Gibson and Cade Povich could get a real shot at the rotation. So could Luis De León, who appeared eight times in relief in September.

The Orioles have some interesting prospects who were at Triple-A Norfolk — right-handers Michael Forret and Nestor German.

Along with Levi Wells, who missed most of the season after core muscle surgery, Forret and German aren’t looked upon as options to open the season with the Orioles.

It’s possible that the three brightest pitching prospects in the organization — right-hander Anthony Eyanson and left-handers Joseph Dzierwa and Cade Hunter, who finished the season at Double-A Chesapeake — will progress enough to end 2027 with the Orioles.

It’s also possible that some of these prospects will be packaged for a major league-caliber outfielder or two.

The Orioles could use more offense from their outfielders.

Cowser, O’Neill and Dylan Beavers should begin the season with the Orioles. Each was an offensive disappointment last season, and it doesn’t look as if there are any prospects ready to start the season with the Orioles in 2027.

Bautista, Cano and Helsley, assuming they’re healthy, will begin 2027 with the Orioles, but another left-hander to go along with Josh Walker and Grant Wolfram would be nice.

So would a better backup catcher behind Basallo. The Orioles finished the season with Carlos Narváez, who came from Boston in the Adley Rutschman trade, but he hit only .104 (8-for-77). They also have Yohel Pozo on the 40-man roster. He hit .259 in 19 games but had just 27 at-bats.

Will there be coaching changes?

It would be a surprise if there weren’t any changes, but there hasn’t been much movement around baseball so far. Only one manager, Seattle’s Dan Wilson, has been fired. There’s uncertainty with the Houston Astros’ Joe Espada and Los Angeles Angels’ Kurt Suzuki, both with expiring contracts, and Philadelphia’s Don Mattingly, who finished the season as an interim manager.

The lack of moves might be tied into the likelihood of a lockout.

Manager Craig Albernaz inherited four coaches — Buck Britton (third base), Drew French (pitching), Mitch Plassmeyer (assistant pitching) and Ryan Klimek (pitching strategy. Seven coaches were hired after Albernaz signed — Dustin Lind (hitting), Brady North (assistant hitting), Jason Bourgeois (first base), Donnie Ecker (bench), Miguel Cairo (infield), Hank Conger (bullpen), and Joe Singley (catching).

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com