Calling the Pen: Orioles’ core value has dropped

The Orioles aren’t rotten to the core, but their core isn’t strong enough to make them a legitimate playoff contender.

President of baseball operations Mike Elias began forming his young core by choosing catcher Adley Rutschman with the first pick of the 2019 draft. Bobby Witt Jr. might have been the better choice, but then Elias grabbed Gunnar Henderson in the second round and Baltimore seemed to be headed in the right direction. Evidence was in the Orioles’ turnaround in 2022, their 101-win season in 2023, when Rutschman was an All-Star and Henderson was the American League Rookie of the Year, and in the first half of 2024, when both were All-Stars and the Orioles were 58-38 at the break.

That was also when Colton Cowser, who was a first-round draft choice in 2021, had a sizzling April, earning AL Player of the Week honors, getting moos from fans in cow onesies and hearing Ben McDonald say, The Milkman always delivers. Another first pick in the draft, Jackson Holliday, whom the Orioles selected in 2022, made his debut that season at age 20 and struggled before becoming a regular in 2025.

Two others representing the young core, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo, were chosen in 2020 — Westburg in the first round, Mayo in the fourth. Westburg has missed, and has been missed, this season because of Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, and Mayo has terrorized left-handed pitchers, hitting 15 of his 19 home runs against them.

One can make a case for why each one was drafted by the Orioles, but none has achieved the steady development that was expected. And one of the young core, Rutschman, is now in the dugout opposite the Orioles’ — traded to the Red Sox by Elias on August 3rd for more young potential talent, and possibly because the Orioles thought it would be hard to sign him when he becomes a free agent after next season.

Which leads us to a number of questions that can be debated. Is their underachievement a sign that they were overrated? Is it a sign that they were rushed to the big leagues, lacking the fundamentals and foundation they should have had? Is it a sign that the team’s organizational development is lacking? Does it mean that the Orioles might make some significant changes during the offseason? What does the Rutschman trade say about Henderson’s future since he is represented by Scott Boras, who encourages his clients to pursue free agency to maximize their value.

After a dismal 2025, this was the season the Orioles needed the young core to produce. The first, and biggest, setback was Westburg’s injury in spring training. There was also Holliday’s recovery from surgery to remove the hamate bone in his right wrist, which took longer than expected.

Henderson, a star in the World Baseball Classic, has struggled throughout the season, showing signs of brilliance but lacking consistency. That is also true of Holliday and Cowser, with the recent three-series road trip illustrating the frustration for fans who keep hoping they’ll take the next step.

After carrying the team to a sweep of the A’s on Sunday with two home runs and four hits, Henderson was 1-for-12 as the Orioles dropped two of three to the Rockies. After preserving the win on Monday night with a sensational over-the-fence catch to end the game, Cowser was 0-for-5 in Wednesday’s 11-inning loss to extend his hitless streak to 19 at-bats. After hitting a home run to tie Tuesday’s game, Holliday dropped a popup before the Rockies hit a two-run homer, and then made a baserunning mistake in the 10th on Wednesday that took the Orioles out of the inning.

Of the core, Mayo has had the best season, with his 19 home runs and 55 RBIs, especially considering he doesn’t have a position. Entering Thursday’s game Mayo’s OPS  was .730, Henderson’s .704, Holliday’s .680 and Cowser’s .671. The MLB average is .719.

I still contend the core has talent, and I’d like to see them succeed, but how long can, or will, Elias wait? To his credit, he brought in Blaze Alexander and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, he signed Pete Alonso, and there appears to be a bright future for Samuel Basallo and perhaps Dylan Beavers. On Monday, Elias made a good move in grabbing Luis Robert Jr., who had the Orioles’ biggest hit on Wednesday and a home run in Thursday’s 6-5 loss to the Red Sox, who were sparked by Rutschman’s two homers.

Elias erred in trading another top draft choice, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, when a team never has enough starting pitching, and he got Taylor Ward in return.

Elias’s young core might still prove their worth, but time is running out.