May 20, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday (7) reacts after striking out against the Tampa Bay Rays in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
May has been a disaster for the Orioles. They’re 6-13, have been outscored, 117-70, and swept in series by the teams with the best two records in the American League, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays.
They’ve allowed 11 or more runs in four games and resorted to using a position player to pitch three times.
Let’s look at questions about what’s next for this team.
Is the season effectively over?
For some fans, it is. After Wednesday’s deflating 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, first baseman Pete Alonso tried to put a positive spin on the situation.
“The wild-card or whatever playoff spot, I think it’s right now, I don’t know, maybe 3, 3 ½ games,” he said. “Thankfully other people haven’t played up to their potential, just like we have, so I think it’s still wide open for us. We expect better from ourselves, like we gotta do it. We gotta do it on the field.”
The Orioles will play a three-game series with the Detroit Tigers this weekend. The Tigers, who were heavily favored to win the American League Central, have the ninth-largest payroll in the game, $210.2 million, and are one of those disappointing teams Alonso was referring to.
Entering Thursday’s games, the Orioles were only 3 ½ games out of the final wild-card spot, but there were four teams — Seattle, Minnesota, Toronto and Boston — ahead of them with the Tigers and Kansas City just behind.
FanGraphs projects the Orioles will split their remaining 112 games, but that 56-56 record would give them a full season record of 77-85 (they were 75-87 last year). However, they still assign them a 17.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. BaseballReference.com gives them a 1 percent chance to be a wild-card team.
With a 21-29 record, the Orioles would have to go 60-52 to play .500 and 64-48 to win 85 games, which likely would be good enough for a playoff spot.
What can be done to help?
The Orioles finally got second baseman Jackson Holliday back this week, but it’s expected to take him a few weeks to round into major league shape.
While the Orioles haven’t been shut out this season, their offense hasn’t been producing enough (4.3 runs per game, 17th in baseball), to make up for their pitching, which is 26th in the majors (4.99 ERA).
While there are some encouraging signs on the mound, with Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz pitching better, they’ll need Trevor Rogers to bounce back.
In his last three starts, none of which lasted more than four innings, Rogers has a 10.29 ERA. On Wednesday, pitching coach Drew French sat next to Rogers in the clubhouse for an extended time. Hopefully, French’s counsel will help, and Rogers will pitch better.
The bullpen’s ERA has steadily risen this month. It’s up to 4.83, nearly as high as the 5.11 starter’s ERA.
Starters aren’t giving the Orioles enough innings. The average start is just under five innings. Needing the bullpen to cover as many as four innings in an average game can only expose it.
Shortstop Gunnar Henderson looks as if he’s begun to hit consistently. He had a four-hit game on Sunday in Washington and a three-hit one on Wednesday.
Catcher Adley Rutschman’s average has dropped from .318 on May 9th to .266. He’s just 5-for-36.
May has been a better month for Alonso, who’s hitting .274 with an .864 OPS, five home runs and 15 RBIs.
Catcher Samuel Basallo, who was signed to an eight-year, $67 million extension last August, has produced, hitting .277 with an .832 OPS, seven home runs and 18 RBIs.
Oriole outfielders need to produce more, much more. Their rightfielders have combined for a .184 average and a .572 OPS while their centerfielders are hitting .206 with a 6.13 OPS. Tyler O’Neill has a .159 average with a .525 OPS while Colton Cowser is hitting .186 with a .520 OPS.
What’s the future of Elias?
As the team’s losses have mounted, so has criticism of president of baseball operations Mike Elias. Coincidentally, the Orioles were at Tampa Bay this week, where former manager Brandon Hyde now works for the Rays.
Sunday was the one-year anniversary of Hyde’s dismissal. He was a constant presence during the three-game series.
Hyde’s firing, coming after two seasons of postseason play without a single win, seemed abrupt. The team was 15-28 and his interim replacement, Tony Mansolino, managed the team to a 61-60 record, which was an improvement but not good enough to get back into contention.
Elias seems safe for the moment, but the thinking of owners David Rubenstein and Mike Arougheti isn’t known.
Unlike managerial dismissals, which can result in rapid turnarounds, like the one the Philadelphia Phillies are experiencing under Don Mattingly, firing a general manager won’t turn a team’s fortunes around quickly.
The guess here is that Elias will be given until at least the trade deadline to see if the Orioles can get back in the race.
If they’re still floundering in early August, perhaps a change could be possible then.
Note: Catcher Maverick Handley was claimed off waivers by Atlanta. … Right-handed pitcher Jose Espada cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com
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