Calling the Pen: Orioles’ McDonald rips analytics: ‘They’re not playing well…That’s the bottom line’

Game, set, season. That’s how it felt Wednesday when I watched the Tampa Bay Rays start an eighth-inning, game-winning rally with a bunt hit, pull off a double steal that resulted in their final run, tie the game on a two-out, two-run double that was bobbled in the outfield and get the game-winning hit on a 3-0 pitch that the batter thought he had popped up; it was a line drive to right field.

The team with the best record (33-15) in baseball snatched victory and a 3-1 lead from the Orioles with four outs to go, sweeping the series and leaving Baltimore with a 21-29 record (6-13 since May 1st).

The Rays’ 5-3 comeback win wasn’t surprising.

As soon as Hunter Feduccia started the last of the eighth with the bunt hit, I thought, “Here we go again.” The Rays are finding ways to win. The Orioles are finding ways to lose.

They lost two games they could have won after losing by 10 runs on Monday night. In the eighth inning Tuesday, Richie Palacios, who had the game-winning hit Wednesday, lined a ball to right field that turned around Colton Cowser and hit off his glove at the wall. According to the analytics, there was a 10 percent catch probability. MASN analyst Ben McDonald wasn’t critical of Cowser (the Orioles were down, 2-1, at the time), but he was critical of the overuse of analytics.

He made his feelings, and his frustration, clear when analytics came up during his postgame analysis on Wednesday.

“We can talk about analytics and what could happen and what should happen if you hit the ball hard,” the former Oriole pitcher began. “But I don’t care if you hit the ball hard. Like, I don’t care if you hit it hard and you hit it to somebody. You’re out. I don’t care how hard you throw ball four. I don’t care what your spin rate was on your breaking ball if you bounce it 3 feet in front of home plate. I don’t care.

“What I care about is, do you make plays? Do you make pitches? Do you get hits when it matters? And that’s what the Orioles are struggling to do right now. They are struggling to have all phases of the game go right at the same time. That’s where the struggle is. So, all this nonsense is eyewash to me about all this analytical stuff.

“You either do or you don’t. And right now, the Orioles don’t. They are not doing it, and they’re not playing well right now. That’s the bottom line.”

The Orioles got a home run, a run-scoring single and three outstanding defensive plays from first baseman Pete Alonso. They got six excellent innings from starting pitcher Shane Baz, who was throwing against his former team.

But they were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, and they continued to fail to put away hitters with two strikes or close out innings with two outs. The Rays scored 16 runs in the three games with two outs and were 12-for-29 with runners in scoring position.

The play of both teams reflected their record, and the confidence of the Rays was evident. They played smart, efficient, aggressive baseball, taking the extra base and challenging the Orioles to make plays. The O’s weren’t up to the task.

The Orioles have individual talent, but they’re not meshing as a team. They continue to make fundamental mistakes that should be cleaned up by this point.

The starts by Baz and Kyle Bradish were encouraging after Trevor Rogers was hammered on Monday, but their starting pitching doesn’t appear strong enough to take them on a run, their bullpen is wearing down, their offense isn’t in sync, and their defense isn’t crisp. Add in plays like the Rays’ double steal, and it’s difficult to see this team putting a winning streak together.

The Orioles will start a 10-game homestand on Friday, and McDonald acknowledged he doesn’t know where they’re headed.

“They are having trouble finishing ball games,” he said. “Where do they go from here? I can’t tell you where they go from here. I don’t know where the Orioles go from here other than that they have to start playing more consistent baseball. That’s the bottom line.”