Thoughts on Orioles’ projected standings, team stats

It’s still very early in the season, and the Orioles haven’t shown much consistency. Entering their first series against an American League East division opponent, the Boston Red Sox, the Orioles are 12-13.

Much of the American League is within a game or two of .500, and that shouldn’t be worrisome, especially since two key infielders, second baseman Jackson Holliday and third baseman Jordan Westburg, haven’t played at all this season.

We should find out more about Holliday, who had an MRI on his right hand in Baltimore on Wednesday, on Friday. There’s still no word on Westburg, who had a platelet-rich plasma injection on his right elbow because of a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in February and isn’t eligible to return until exactly a month from now, at the earliest.

While many fans are disappointed in the team’s start because of a perceived easy early schedule, they’re firmly in the playoff picture—even though it’s far too soon to discuss October.

I’ve often written that I’m not a fan of gambling on baseball or other sports, but I can never resist a look at projected win totals or standings.

When the season began four weeks ago, BetOnline.ag projected the Orioles would win 85 ½ wins, which isn’t far off from what I privately projected. On Thursday, they adjusted the total to 84 ½ wins, which isn’t bad news since their oddsmakers reduced the projected win totals of other AL East teams.

The Yankees (15-9), who have the best record in the American League, should win 93 ½ games, three higher than just before Opening Day.

While the Orioles are forecast to finish nine games behind the Yankees, the other three teams in the division: Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto are all projected to win fewer games than the Orioles.

The Red Sox, who were predicted to win 87 ½, are now forecast to win 81 ½, down six games. The Blue Jays, who nearly won the World Series last year, also had their win projection altered six games from 87 ½ to 81 ½. The Rays, who have gotten off to a hotter start than most foresaw, had their win total go from 76 ½ to 79 ½.

Detroit and Seattle should win the AL Central and West, the oddsmakers say, but the Orioles’ 84 ½ wins is the same as Texas’ win total, which would mean a Wild-Card series appearance for the Orioles.

FanGraphs isn’t quite as bullish on the Orioles, predicting an 82-80 record, but their projections would also place them in the Wild-Card round. They, too, have the Yankees finishing nine games ahead of the second-place Orioles, and beating out Toronto, Tampa Bay and Boston.

The Blue Jays, Rays and Red Sox are all projected to finish with 81-81 records, which would make for a fascinating last month of the regular season.

FanGraphs predicts that Texas will have an 83-79 record, but the Orioles will be the second wild-card team, they say.

BaseballReference.com isn’t nearly as optimistic, assigning the Orioles 16.6 percent odds to make the postseason.

Looking at team stats

Whenever I’ve been asked about the Orioles in recent days, I’ve quickly replied: “They’re not going to be great, and they’re not going to be terrible.”

The projections seem to agree, and so do their rankings among other teams.

Entering Thursday’s games, the Orioles have scored 111 runs, one more than the league average, and their 4.44 runs scored per game is just about league average (4.47).

Their 26 home runs is one above league average, and their OPS is .700, just below the .708 league average.

If you were wondering if the team was going to play small ball more under manager Craig Albernaz, the answer is yes, but not as much as most of baseball.

The Orioles have stolen 14 bases, four fewer than the average team. They’ve been thrown out seven times for a .667 success rate. The MLB success rate is down a bit this year, to .777.

Last year, the Orioles sacrificed four times, the fewest in baseball. They’re sure to easily surpass that this year. They’ve already sacrificed three times.

The Orioles’ team ERA of 4.00 is just below the league average of 4.12, and their fielding percentage of .984 is a bit below the major league average of .985.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com