I never thought the Orioles would cough up another $150 million to sign former Astros ace Framber Valdez, but when I heard that he accepted a three-year, $115 million deal from the Detroit Tigers I couldn’t help but wonder what pushed the O’s out of the picture.
They had been rumored to be in on Valdez from the opening of this year’s free-agent market and anticipation only grew when slugger Pete Alonso signed a huge deal (at least by middle-market standards) to beef up the club’s batting order.
The padlock was apparently off the Orioles’ war chest and everybody was speculating that Valdez was just holding out for more years than the O’s – or anybody else for that matter – were willing to give. But that notion evaporated when Valdez settled for three years, albeit at one of the highest average annual salaries ever given a pitcher.
So what happened? Was it the $20 million signing bonus he got from the Tigers … or the two-year opt-out? Did the Orioles finally realize – after the Tyler O’Neill deal – that opt-out clauses in guaranteed contracts aren’t a good idea?
Or was it something out of their control, like the possibility that Valdez took a hard look at the overall strength of the American League East and decided that he would be better off lining up behind Tigers ace Tarik Skubal than having to anchor the unproven O’s rotation for 16 divisional series this year?
Whatever the reason, I don’t think we’ll all wake up in late October thinking “if only the O’s had signed Framber Valdez we all would be getting second mortgages to buy World Series tickets right now.”
The guy is a top-of-the-rotation left-hander who certainly would have provided a large measure of stability to an Orioles pitching staff that was decimated by injuries the past two seasons. His 3.36 career ERA and the fact that he averaged 30 starts the past four seasons certainly justify a place among the game’s highest-paid pitchers.
The only counter argument to that is that he is 32 years old and pitched nearly 800 innings over those four seasons. Fans were moaning a year ago at this time that the team did not make a bigger effort to retain Corbin Burnes and Elias ended up looking pretty smart when Burnes spent most of the first year of his six-year, $210 million contract with the Diamondbacks recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Heaven forbid that kind of bad fortune befall Valdez, but here’s the reality of the O’s pitching situation. Whether he had signed here or the team ends up improving the rotation with a decent free-agent signing such as Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, Zack Littell or whoever, the chances of a legitimate playoff run will depend more what happens with the guys that are already here.
If Trevor Rogers is really the guy who looked like a No. 1 starter in his 18 games last year and Kyle Bradish is ready to realize his unlimited potential, the O’s might be okay with one of the remaining available free agents. They also could use Tyler Wells as a starter and Dean Kremer is coming off a solid season during which he made 29 starts and pitched over 170 innings for the second time in three years.
Personally, I’m more concerned about the bullpen, but that’s a story for a different day.