Should Orioles pursue an ace or look for rotation depth?

I received an interesting email from a reader on Saturday. Mitch asked: “I noticed some people think that the Orioles have to go out and get an ace to be part of the 2026 playoff picture. They [think] that the Oriole must spend upward of $100 million to get an ace or give up 4 or 5 prospects to get an ace. Do you think that the Orioles necessarily have get an ace to contend for the playoffs in 2026?”

Mitch, it’s not mandatory for a contender to have an ace, but it certainly helps.

I don’t think the Orioles would have made the postseason in 2024 without Corbin Burnes, whom they received from Milwaukee in exchange for reliever DL Hall, infielder Joey Ortiz and a Competitive Balance draft pick.

However, they won the American League East in 2023 without a top-tier starter, though Kyle Bradish finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting with a 12-7 record and 2.83 ERA.

Their most reliable starter was Kyle Gibson, who was 15-9 with a 4.73 ERA. Dean Kremer was 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA.

Those were the only pitchers with 30 or more starts.

There aren’t many so-called aces around. There’s chatter that Detroit will shop Tarik Skubal, last year’s unanimous Cy Young winner and the favorite to win it again this year. A year from now, Skubal is likely to attract an enormous contract, one that the Tigers believe they can’t afford. Perhaps they’d like to get something more than a draft pick if he doesn’t re-sign.

Last December, the Chicago White Sox, who are years from contention, traded their terrific left-hander, Garrett Crochet, to the Boston Red Sox for four top prospects. They signed him to a six-year, $170 million extension.

Crochet also will get many Cy Young votes, and he fits in the ace category.

So do New York’s Max Fried, Houston’s Hunter Brown and Seattle’s Bryan Woo.

The Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners were all in the postseason, and the Astros missed qualifying by a game.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the World Series without a true ace. Kevin Gausman has been their most dependable starter and well worth the five-year, $110 million contract he signed in December 2021.

The Blue Jays have gotten this far without a pitcher likely to be in the Cy Young conversation and needed help from Trey Yesavage, who began his professional career only this year with Single-A Dunedin and pitched at every level in the minors.

There are multiple ways to build a starting staff. You can start with an ace, but those are few and far between, build around them, or you can aim for depth.

The Orioles would like to add at least one starting pitcher, either by trade or free agency, perhaps two.

This season, they hoped that Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez would help lead the staff. Eflin’s back injuries limited him to 14 starts while Rodriguez didn’t pitch at all.

Rodriguez had surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow in August and hopes to be ready for spring training in February.

The Orioles also had to do without Albert Suárez, who tied for second-most starts on the staff in 2024 but pitched only five times because of rotator cuff and forearm injuries.

If Eflin and Rodriguez had been healthy for 30 starts each, could they have boosted the Orioles from 75 wins to the 88 needed to guarantee a playoff spot?

President of baseball operations Mike Elias signed free agent right-handers Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano for starting depth.

He knew that Bradish and Tyler Wells wouldn’t be available for most of the season after elbow surgeries in June 2024.

Morton had a horrible beginning to his Orioles career and while he pitched well in May, June and July, he ended his Orioles stint with a 5.42 ERA and was traded to the Tigers.

Sugano led the Orioles with 30 starts, which is not what Elias had imagined. He was 10-10 with a 4.64 ERA, but in September had a 6.01 ERA in his final four starts.

Along with Kremer (11-10, 4.09), they were the only two starters to complete the season.

Sugano will likely be elsewhere as a free agent. Kremer will be in the rotation behind Trevor Rogers, who showed ace-like stuff with a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts, Bradish, who looked strong in six starts, and perhaps a healthy Rodriguez, and Wells, if he’s not moved to the bullpen.

The Orioles need another dependable starter or two. If they can sign one as a free agent or trade for another, that’s great.

Elias’ experience of coming short in 2025 will lead him to search for an ace, or at least a starter or two who can provide that needed depth.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.