It’s fair to question whether the Orioles’ young core is good enough

After Kyle Stowers homered twice, including a walkoff on Friday night to open the second half for the Miami Marlins, his season OPS stands at .930. What struck me about the number isn’t that it ranks 6th — yes, 6th — in baseball out of 158 qualified hitters. I instead wondered how it compares with the best season each Orioles young hitter has produced thus far in their early careers. Here are those numbers:

Gunnar Henderson | 2024
.894 OPS | 36 points behind Stowers’ 2025

Adley Rutschman | 2023
.809 OPS | 121 points behind Stowers

Jordan Westburg | 2024
.792 OPS | 138 points behind Stowers

Colton Cowser | 2024
.768 OPS | 162 points behind Stowers

Jackson Holliday | 2025
.723 OPS | 207 points behind Stowers

Of course, the 2025 season is far from over, and Stowers’ numbers could come back down to earth as pitchers increasingly learn his weaknesses as a hitter. But it’s striking that no young Oriole has produced an offensive season eclipsing Stowers’ current 2025 numbers, and only Henderson has one in the same ballpark.

The Orioles’ strategy entering 2025 seemed to bank on a top-tier offense to offset a more ordinary starting pitching staff. Injuries certainly contributed to the lack of run-scoring early in the season, but they don’t tell the whole story. As the lineup has gotten healthier, the offensive output hasn’t improved drastically.

Since June 1st, the O’s rank 18th in baseball with 183 runs scored, 24th with a .304 on-base percentage, and 28th with a 7.0 percent walk rate — despite getting more than 90 plate appearances each from the following eight players: Westburg, Cowser, Henderson, Holliday, Cedric Mullins, Ramón Urías, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano. That’s the bulk of the Orioles’ “Plan A” lineup coming into 2025, and the offense has continued to struggle even with those players simultaneously healthy.

Henderson continues to be the best of the homegrown young hitters, but he hasn’t produced MVP-caliber numbers since last June. Dividing his career into three parts is telling:

August 31st, 2022 – May 31st, 2023:
316 PA | .226/.339/.400 | .739 OPS

June 1st, 2023 – June 30th, 2024:
818 PA | .281/.351/.566 | .916 OPS

July 1st, 2024 – July 20th, 2025:
722 PA | .276/.343/.455 | .798 OPS

Henderson has remained productive at the plate, but his power production has diminished rapidly with a 111-point decline in slugging percentage since last July 1st.  His .798 OPS over that time ranks 45th in baseball (minimum 500 plate appearances).

As has been well documented, Rutschman’s more severe drop-off began last July as well:

May 21st, 2022 – June 30th, 2024:
1,514 PA | .274/.365/.447 | .812 OPS

July 1st, 2024 – July 20th, 2025:
556 PA | .210/.298/.329 | .627 OPS

Westburg and Cowser have held their own, but we haven’t seen either of them break out into above average hitters, and significant injuries have perhaps delayed some of their development. Holliday, 21, has made significant strides in his first full season but has just a .307 on-base percentage as the O’s primary leadoff hitter.

At least publicly, general manager Mike Elias has continued to express confidence in his drafted-and-developed position players.

“I think this is a great core,” he told Rich Dubroff last month. “A lot of them have been injured, or they’ve been underperforming for a stretch. That’s going to continue to be the backbone of this team for the next several seasons, so they’re very much a part of any strategy.”

Privately, it’s fair to wonder whether Elias believes his young hitters are settling in more as average players than impact bats, his coaching methodologies are failing to untap their full potential at the plate, or both.

Or is adding a well-rounded veteran hitter or two from outside the organization the answer? Did former manager Brandon Hyde believe that to be the case when, after playoff losses to Kansas City in which the O’s scored just one run in two games, he mentioned his experience with Ben Zobrist in Chicago?

“There was going to be an at-bat or two in the game where you knew [Zobrist] was going to take a great at-bat with runners in scoring position, and it changed our entire lineup,” Hyde said.

Either way, it’s difficult to imagine an Oriole playoff run in 2026 without an upper-echelon offense, meaning their young hitters have a lot to prove over the remaining two-plus months of 2025. If they largely stay healthy and the offense continues to struggle, the voices questioning Mike Elias figure to grow louder. How he reacts may determine his future in Baltimore and the Orioles’ fortunes over the next few seasons.