A look at Coby Mayo’s struggles and an Oriole Hall of Famer who went through something similar

It is not unusual for a minor league player who’s a top 100 prospect with a big resume to struggle early on in the majors.

Colton Cowser hit just .115 with a .433 OPS in 2023. A year before that, Adley Rutschman, then the minor’s No. 1-rated prospect, went his first 20 games without a homer or RBI and had an OPS of .513 in his O’s debut. Last year, Jackson Holliday produced a .565 OPS.

Then there is what Coby Mayo experienced last season. It was worse. Yes, it was over just 41 at-bats, but he went 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts while batting .098/.196/.098/.293 after joining Baltimore early last August.

If you look at preseason prospect rankings from before 2024 to before this season, Mayo dropped a few spots in Baseball America from No. 25 to No. 29. But other outlets, despite the initial MLB struggles, improved his ranking. On MLBPipeline.com, Mayo was No. 30 before last year and is No. 14 now. In ESPN, he improved from No. 19 to No. 8. In The Athletic he went from No. 27 to No. 18.

MLB.com senior writer Jim Callis, while wondering where Mayo will wind up on defense, hasn’t lost confidence in the 23-year-old slugger’s bat.

“The mental side of it [after 4-for-41] is something he has to come through. I don’t know how much it bothers him. I will say, I just tend to look at the small sample size here,” Callis said. “When guys get to the big leagues it’s a lot easier said than done to say, ‘You’re in the big leagues for a reason, just keep doing what got you here.’

“I’m not saying he’s going to be this good, but if you remember the Yankees’ Aaron Judge when he came up, he was 24 when he got there, a bit older and he hit .179 and struck out 42 times in 84 at-bats. We had him in the 40-range in our next top 100 and we got crushed for that.”

If Mayo wants to see someone who struggled as badly as he did the first time he played in the majors, he could look to Orioles’ Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. In 1981, Ripken went 5-for-39, batting .128 with a .278 OPS. Mayo’s OPS+ was -10 last year. Ripken was at -19.

And then Ripken was the 1982 AL Rookie of the Year and the 1983 AL MVP for a World Series winner. It got better for him. A lot better.

Mayo will try to show in 2025 that what he went through was just a tough start – nothing more.

“The best thing he can do is put that behind him,” Callis said. “A .293 OPS is not good. But when you come up with a team that is contending, trying to win the division and they were not having a great second half, there is more pressure to produce. He was not joining the White Sox. It was basically welcome to the big leagues, but we need you to produce.

“All that said, it was a rough debut. But small sample size, tough circumstances. And the flip side of it was he got to the big leagues at 22 and he’s produced everywhere he’s gone in the minors. He’s been very young for his levels at Double-A and Triple-A, and he raked.

“It doesn’t bother me in the same way that Jackson Holliday’s debut didn’t bother me. I would be more concerned if he got 250 at-bats this year and really struggled. Then maybe you would think., ‘what’s going on?’ But I’m not really worried about him.”

A fourth-round pick in the shortened 2020 MLB draft, Mayo, in 89 Triple-A games last year, hit .287/.364/.562/.926 with 23 doubles, 3 triples, 22 homers and 67 RBIs. Had he enough at-bats to qualify for International League leaders, that OPS would have ranked third. Among O’s farmhands with 300 or more plate appearances, his .964 OPS (increased with three homers in four High-A Aberdeen games) was the best in the organization.

In the 2023 when he played 78 games in Double-A and 62 at Triple-A, Mayo hit .290/.410/.563/.973 with 45 doubles, 29 homers and 99 RBIs. A monster year that moved him up the top 100 rankings.

“He still has one of the best power ceilings of anyone in the minors,” Callis said. “Not going to throw 40 home runs around lightly. But if you are making a list of minor leaguers you thought could hit 40 in a season, it probably would be about five players deep and Coby Mayo would be on it.

“There are positional questions with him. Is he quick and agile enough for third base? He’s obviously got the cannon arm. I think he could play realistically an adequate third base, but you might want an upgrade on a big league club. Not sure if he can be an asset defensively at third, and he might wind up at first base or they run him in right field and take a look there. The question for me is where long term will he play more than the offense.”