Peter Schmuck: Orioles naysayers are right about one thing

Although I’m excited about the opening of spring training next week, I have to concede one point to the frustrated fans who wanted to see the team do much more to upgrade the major league roster over the offseason.

The Orioles are not as talented – at least on paper – as last year’s club.

That should be fairly obvious, since they were not able to replace pitching ace Corbin Burnes and were not willing to pay big money to keep top power hitter Anthony Santander. There’s still time for executive VP/general manager Mike Elias to pull off a trade for a front-line starter, but what you see now is probably what you’re going to get in April.

Now for the good news. Apologists like myself love to point out that the game isn’t played on paper and it isn’t played by robots, which leaves plenty of variability for a team with so many exciting young players.

You might recall that two Aprils ago, the Orioles were a 50-to-1 longshot to win the American League East championship. With just a $20 bet and a little fanboy confidence, you could have cashed a $1,000 winning ticket and then blown the money on the playoffs.

Don’t ask me how I remember that so clearly.

That team didn’t have Burnes at the front of the rotation, either. This team, however, has the cream of the Orioles’ terrific youth movement hungry to get back to the postseason and with plenty of untapped potential to make that happen.

We’ll have to spend spring training collectively knocking on wood, but I can’t imagine the Orioles’ rotation being decimated by injuries the way it was last season. Elias was able to add some depth behind the returning nucleus of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer, and still hopes to do more.

The departure of Santander left a hole in the middle of the lineup that the front office is hoping newcomer Tyler O’Neill will fill if he stays healthy. He hit 31 homers in just 113 games for the Red Sox last year, but his home run frequency (one every 3.7 games) was similar to Santander’s (3.5), and the analytics say he’s the better defensive outfielder (though Santander had more assists and fewer errors last year).

Although the quality and durability of the pitching staff usually determines whether a team makes a deep playoff run, there also will be a great deal of focus on the continuing maturation of the Orioles’ top young stars.

Catcher Adley Rutschman spent the offseason trying to figure things out after his season fell apart at the plate in the second half. Rookie of the Year runner-up Colton Cowser needs to improve his pitch recognition after striking out 172 times last season. Top prospect Jackson Holliday still has to earn his presumptive place in the starting lineup at second base. And Jordan Westburg just has to stay healthy all year, because there isn’t anyone on the team more determined to be a great player.

Yes, a lot has to go right for the Orioles to stay in the mix with another very tough collection of American League East opponents, but it still promises to be another exciting season at Oriole Park.

And if legendary announcer Chuck Thompson was still around, he might have to make a small change in his most famous tagline:

“Ain’t the beer cheap.”