Can the Orioles beat the Yankees in the AL East? This projection system says yes

Here is something interesting. At a time when Birdland has been debating whether the Orioles added enough talent this winter to contend for an American League East championship and 2025 playoff berth, one projection system sees the Birds as rather formidable.

The fact that it is the PECOTA projection system is a bit of a surprise.

Over many years PECOTA’s algorithm has not been very accurate projecting Orioles win and losses.

PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus, stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is the Baseball Prospectus proprietary system that projects player (and also team) performance based on comparison with historical player seasons.

From 2021 to 2023, PECOTA missed the Orioles final win tally by a combined 63 games.

They actually missed high on the 2021 Orioles that won just 52 after a projection for 66. Then they had the 2022 O’s for 61 and they won 83. And in 2023, there was a big miss. The projection of 74 was easily topped by the 101-win AL East champs. Last year it was better with a five-win miss.

But this time around, O’s fans may be hopeful PECOTA is on target.

In what looks like a pretty wide open American League race, the system doesn’t project any one team to win 90 or more games. But it does have the Orioles and Yankees atop the AL East by what was 89.2 wins on Wednesday. But by yesterday afternoon the Orioles were listed at 89.0 with New York at 88.9. Among other That duo is just behind Texas at 89.3 and ahead of Houston at 86.8 and Seatte at 86.1.

The AL East should be quite good again per PECOTA. While the AL has eight teams projected for 82 or more wins, four are from the AL East. That division is the only one in baseball with four clubs projected for winning seasons.

After the Orioles and Yankees, Toronto is projected for 85.1 wins with Tampa Bay at 82.3 and Boston at 78.0.

As of Thursday afternoon, the Orioles have the best chance to win the AL East as the system gives the O’s a 38.7 percent chance to take the division followed by New York at 34.8, Toronto at 15.4, Tampa Bay at 8.6 and Boston at 2.5.

The Orioles have a 75.6 percent chance to make the playoffs per PECOTA just ahead of New York at 74.2 percent. The Orioles are listed at 7.9 percent to win the World Series with New York at 6.5 percent.

Best percentage to win the WS:

21.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers

8.2 – Atlanta Braves

7.9 – Baltimore Orioles

7.6 – New York Mets

7.5 – Chicago Cubs

7.3 – Texas Rangers

PECOTA has the Dodgers for a whopping 103.8 victories. The Colorado Rockies are projected for 107 losses, the most of any team.

How PECOTA predicted the 2024 AL East:

94 – New York (actual wins was 94)
88 – Toronto (actual wins was 74)
87 – Tampa Bay (actual wins was 80)
86 – Orioles (actual wins was 91)
79 – Boston (actual wins was 81)

From 2012 to 2016, the O’s made the playoffs three times, won an AL East championship and led the AL in wins for that five-year period. But PECOTA never saw the O’s as winners.

2012 – 72 wins (actual was 93)
2013 – 74 wins (actual was 85)
2014 – 78 wins (actual was 96)
2015 – 79 wins (actual was 81)
2016 – 75 wins (actual was 89)

The average win projection over that run was 75.6 while the club posted an actual average win total of 88.8 in that span.

O’s fans over the years have had a love-hate relationship with PECOTA. This time around they are probably hopeful this is the year the system nails it for the Orioles.