Assuming that John Means and Jordan Lyles, when his signing becomes official after the Major League Baseball lockout, will be the Orioles’ first two starters in the 2022 rotation, three spots remain open.
Let’s look at the internal candidates, although the Orioles might add from the outside when the lockout ends. We’ll focus first on pitchers who spent time with the Orioles in 2021.
Keegan Akin
Background: Akin, who’ll turn 27 the day after the scheduled March 31st opener, was the Orioles’ second-round pick in 2016. The left-hander made his Orioles debut in 2020 and was 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA in eight games, six of them starts.
Akin’s 2021: He was 2-10 with a 6.63 ERA in 24 games, 17 starts. After a rough spring training, the left-hander began the season at the alternate site at Bowie. He had an accident with a kitchen knife, delaying his promotion until mid-May.
Akin had a difficult monthlong stretch when in six starts from June 16th-July 16th, he allowed 33 runs in 24 1/3 innings for a 12.20 ERA. He was scratched from his next start and placed on the Covid-19 injured list.
Akin had some better starts in August and September. On August 26th, he allowed one run on three hits in seven innings in a 13-1 win over the Los Angeles Angels. In his final start, he gave up a run on five hits in 5 1/3 innings on September 22nd at Philadelphia. He ended the season on the injured list after core muscle surgery.
Outlook: Akin has an option remaining, and if he can build upon the stronger late-season starts, he has a good chance of beginning 2022 with the Orioles.
Mike Baumann
Background: The 26-year-old right-hander was the Orioles’ third-round pick in 2017. He had a strong minor league career with a 28-16 record and 2.94 ERA. He allowed only 21 home runs in 77 games.
Baumann’s 2021: After his time at the alternate site ended prematurely because of a forearm injury, Baumann pitched five hitless innings at Low-A Delmarva. After 10 starts for the Baysox, he was 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA in six starts for Triple-A Norfolk.
He was added to the Orioles for four September relief appearances. Two of them were strong (five innings, no earned runs on three hits). Two of them weren’t (five innings,11 earned runs on 10 hits).
Outlook: The possibility of a shortened spring training could hurt Baumann’s chances of beginning 2022 with the Orioles. He’s never started a major league game, so it’s possible that he returns to Norfolk for a spell and returns to Baltimore after a few starts for the Tides.
Dean Kremer
Background: Kremer, who turns 26 on Friday, was acquired in the July 2018 trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers that sent Manny Machado west.
He led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2018 and impressed in four late-season starts in 2020 when he was 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA.
Kremer’s 2021: He had a disappointing season with an 0-7 record and 7.55 ERA in 13 starts with the Orioles. After a horrible start on June 24th against the Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo, when he retired just one of the eight hitters, walking five and allowing six runs, Kremer was sent to Norfolk. At Norfolk, Kremer was 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 17 games, 13 starts.
He was promoted only as the 27th man on September 11th when he allowed five runs on seven hits in four innings against the Blue Jays.
Outlook: It was surprising that the Orioles didn’t summon Kremer again in September, and it will be interesting to see how he’s slotted in spring training. Do they still see him as a starter? Or will they try him in the bullpen as they did late in Norfolk’s season. He has one option remaining.
Zac Lowther
Background: Lowther, a 25-year-old left-hander, was the Orioles’ second-round pick in 2017. He was 23-19 with a 2.61 ERA in 72 minor league games. Like Baumann, Lowther didn’t allow many home runs in the minors, just 21.
Lowther’s 2021: Lowther was one of many pitchers summoned by the Orioles early in the first half of the season. He made five appearances, one in April, May, June and two in July. In his first major league start on May 8th, he gave up seven runs on seven hits in 2 1/3 innings against Boston.
After missing time because of a strained left shoulder, Lowther spent the last month of the season with the Orioles. On September 12th, Lowther gave up seven runs in two innings in a 22-7 loss to Toronto, but he also had some strong appearances that month. Lowther gave up a run on three hits in six innings against Kansas City on September 6th. In his final two starts, he allowed one earned run on 11 hits in 10 innings.
Outlook: Lowther showed enough late in the season to warrant a look as a starter to begin 2022. He did strike out just more than a batter per nine innings, though his walk and home run totals were much higher than in the minor leagues. He has two options remaining.
Alexander Wells
Background: Wells, a 24-year-old Australian left-hander, was signed as an international free agent in 2016. He was 36-27 with a 2.87 ERA in the minors and allowed just 1.4 walks per nine innings.
Wells’ 2021: Wells was 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 11 games, eight starts. After two relief appearances in June, Wells made an emergency start when Akin landed on the Covid-19 injured list and pitched creditably, allowing three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings on July 21st at Tampa Bay.
Wells was within a strike of his first major league win in the start against the Rays, but Tanner Scott allowed two runs in the bottom of the ninth.
Wells spent September with the Orioles. His best start came on September 30th against Boston, when he limited the Red Sox to a run on three hits in six innings.
Outlook: Wells is an intriguing prospect, but he allowed 10 home runs in 42 1/3 innings and struck out just 5.5 batters per nine innings. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him as either a starter or reliever in 2022.
Bruce Zimmermann
Background: Zimmermann will turn 27 on February 9th, and he’s the most accomplished of the starting candidates. He was acquired by the Orioles in the July 2018 trade with Atlanta that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves.
The Ellicott City native made his major league debut in September 2020. He allowed six runs in seven innings in two appearances.
Zimmermann’s 2021: An excellent spring training earned him a spot in the rotation to begin the season. Overall, he was 4-5 with a 5.04 ERA in 14 games.
After a brief demotion in early May to limit his innings, the left-hander pitched well in long relief on May 16th. Zimmermann allowed one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees and picked up a win.
His first win came in the season’s third game when he allowed three runs in six innings in an 11-3 victory at Boston.
Zimmermann won two more games in June, but in mid-June went on the injured list because of left biceps tendinitis, and then just before he was about to be recalled in August, he sprained an ankle lifting weights in Norfolk.
He finally made it back to the Orioles for two late-season starts.
Outlook: Zimmermann will enter spring training as a favorite for the third spot in the rotation.
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We need FB velocity and spin rates, swing and miss stats! Come on, man! Otherwise, nice write up Rich! :)
Isn’t that your job, Joe?
Garbage!!
2021 Stats from Baseball Savant
Akins FB velo 92 MPH, spin rate 2337, exit velo 90.2, whiff rate 20%, above average vertical and horizontal movement, ERA 6.63
Baumann 93.6, 2093, 96.5 (yikes he got hit hard!), 21.3%, average vertical movement, below horizontal movement, 9.90
Kremer 92.6, 2308, 93.2, 14.7%, average vertical and horizontal movement, 7.55
Lowther 90.7, 2206, 94.4, 19.1%, below avg vertical, above avg horizontal movement, 6.67
A Wells 88.5 (ugh), 2147, 91.2 (same as Meansie?), 14.6%, above average vertical and horizontal movement, 6.75
Zimmermann 91.4, 2325, 91.3, 13.4%, below average vertical and horizontal movement, 5.04
Means 92.8, 2399, 91.2, 21.2%, above avg vertical, avg horizontal movement, 3.62
All these numbers lead to the conclusions that a) these new metrics aren't very useful, b) that Orioles new regime isn't doing well developing pitchers with FB velo under 95 MPH, and c) Orioles pitching coaches and Elias should be fired immediately. You're welcome!
And, like Columbo, just one more thing!
2021 FIP leader Corbin Burnes threw 52.3% cutters! That's right cutters, the pitch the Orioles regime has basically banned. 1.5% 4 seam fastballs.
Fire 'em all! Fire 'em now! That think they know what they are doing, but they don't actually know what they are doing. It's all a ruse!!!
WhyDoYouBother. It'sAllHorsePucky.
FireFireEliasNow
AndWhileWe'reAtIt....FIREELIASNOW.
Wow Rich, the comments on this thread are acidic. I like your Work.
Thank you, MLB
Good column!
Thanks Rich - nice write up!
2022 will be telling on many fronts.
I’m not qualified or intelligent enough to interpret or apprehend those pitching metrics, and am impressed by those who take the time to try to process all that.
Maybe GR will help, but who knows when he’s coming up, and one rookie is not responsible for righting this ship. It’s safe to say that the rotation is shaky at best, and that we will see another rocky road (and I ain’t talkin ice cream) for our starting staff, whoever that will be.
This should quickly lead to a conversation about the bullpen, because they will likely have another heavy load to tote.
Marty, there will be plenty more written about the bullpen.
I think zimmermann showed enough last year to warrant a spot. Akin concerns me that he’ll come in out of shape again. Particularly after having surgery. Wells and Lowther struggled against good teams. That would make the rotation awfully left handed and that’s not good in our division with most right handed hitters. I’d like to see Baumann get a chance.
These are the guys who’ve had excellent minor league careers, just need to translate it into the majors. Probably just need one of them to start the season in the rotation assuming they land another free agent pitcher. I like Baumann if he’s healthy and ready to go.
Is there a “Stat” or some metric that shows how a terrible fielding defense may cause inflated era’s ??? Just curious, because its not mentioned when talking about a “Bad outings”
I am of the camp that believes baseball is a “Team Sport”… How many times over the past few years has any starter who takes the mound in front of the team we have put behind them thought that it was his job to be “Perfect”
The Orioles of recent years have not exactly been known for their “Fundamentals” right???
Would seem to me that you would need a return to Palmer, McNally, and Cuellar type pitching to offset the infield we have been putting on the field… Or is it the other way around??? Do we need the Ripkens, Hardy and Alomar’s of the new world to make the routine plays that make pitching to contact work???
You make a very good point. Palmer, McNally, Cuellar and Dobson had a spectacularly good defense playing behind them. Our current young pitchers would definitely improve with such a luxury.
Pass on the spitter Alomar!
Why does anyone around here really even think of Alomar as an Oriole?
NOPE!
Buzz is just fishing. He uses a buzz bait to catch comments. I guess in this instance, he has great expectorations. (Sorry)
And aside from the obvious spitting incident and him being petulant in general, I loved him as a player. I never thought about whether I view him as an Oriole but loved watching him play. I probably think of him more in a Blue Jays uniform….
I have never fished in my life!
Alomar was the 1st player I remember to start flipping the ball straight from the glove while turning DPs and such.
You’re good at it Buzz! Great hobby. You’d love it.
Buzz, you’re missing a good time…go O’s…
Well, this is probably the least inspiring part of the rebuild up to now.
None of the Pitchers mentioned above are likely to be "world beaters". Baumann and Zimmerman are probably the two best of this group. DL Hall hopefully will be ready towards the end of the season if he recovers sufficiently from his elbow injury last season. Kyle Bradish is a talent that they are high on also..this is not a long list of guys beating on the door to Orioles Park.
Elias has generally chosen players with a surprising disregard for pitching need up to this point. We've discussed the reasoning behind this before. The players he has selected fall into two categories;
- excellent high-ceiling kids with strong ability to judge the strike zone and an ability to hit the ball hard in the air. Usually play skill positions of SS and CF.
- unheralded players who are impressing at the lower levels of MILB with the same profile of the kids we read about and know about.
I give him a Grade of A+ so far in his three drafts---wayyyy better than his predecessor ever did.
But we have to wonder what his plan is for getting pitching. I believe that he has one. We will find out soon enough I guess.....
Having mediocre Starting Pitching in the AL East is a surefire recipe for have another high draft pick in 2023....
The Elias Haters will have lots to complain about still for another year or two..
BC - Greatly stated!!! It also seems Mike Elias is getting blamed for the Duquette era draft and trades which isn't right or correct!!! He should be judged on his draft class and the trades he made which you are correct and should get straight A+'s across the board. He made the Orioles farm system graded as Number 1!!!
And an FYI for certain posers who wants Elias gone - Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, Bruce Zimmermann were all drafted or traded for by Dan Duquette NOT BY Mike Elias!!! And as a result of this and many other reasons, Duquette was fired and rightly so!!!
But, hopefully someone from this group will show enough promise this coming year or next to at least qualify as a 4th or 5th starter to go along with Means. If so, because the Orioles payroll is so low due to the fact of ALL THE YOUNG PLAYERS ON THE ROSTER, I believe if all of these young players step up, Mike Elias will go out and get a true ace and then look out!!! The Orioles will be a championship contender for a long time which was another part of Mike Elias's plan!!!
Hey Einstein? Who drafted G Rod? Huh? Huh? My cat picked Rutschman first too, so Elias is as smart as my cat.
The current regime is totally clueless but they like to spin they are geniuses. You took the bait!
Hey clueless, that just makes your cat smarter than you!!! Lol. NUMBER 1 FARM SYSTEM doesn't make you clueless just you and your talking cat fit that bill!!! Swallow that down good clueless!!! And speaking of bait - go and feed your talking cat!!!
And after 5 years as a GM that's all ya got??? His spin the wheel on picking players in the draft and he finds one guy is your boy genius, Einstein??? And GRod hasn't done anything in an Oriole uniform yet so go buy a clue, Einstein!!!
Elias is basically still entering his fourth year at the Helm.
Grayson was a fantastic pick for the Duquette Regime, and I am grateful that he seems to have gotten that one right. BTW, I respect Duquette and appreciate what he accomplished in his time here.
Many of us don't have an appreciation of just how far gone this Orioles organization was when he got here. They have had to tear down, re-engineer, recruit and hire a whole now Coaching and Player Development system on the fly. There were no Analytics, no Playbook for every team in the system. There was no International Scouting and Development System either...
There were a helluva lot of old school people who did what they wanted to do/not what they needed to do and who were out-of-touch w the way the game has changed rapidly in the last 10-15 years. There was a terribly dysfunctional environment between the Owner/Manager/GM.
The Orioles were the worst-run franchise in the game..by far..
That is no longer the situation.. we are very lucky to have him and I am happy that the Brothers leave him alone to do his job.
When things turn in their direction it will be something beautiful to behold. Lord knows the fans of this team deserve it.
Joe ...."greatly stated".
Your cat made me laugh tonite. :)
DDDD was out of baseball for 10 years when we hired him, that speaks volumes!
Tee Hee… go O’s…
Wow, some serious name calling there, actually my parents were happily married, more beer muscles there, again…this site would be so much better off without you…go O’s…
CPs ... Is he referring to the "tee hee" as stealing his quote?
And think about it. ....if it's a 'quote' ... how on earth can it be stolen?
Plagiarizing is the opposite of quoting ... again ...think about it. If you've 'quoted' someone, you've in essence, given credit.
Duh. Don't you ever recognize that everyone around here is having fun an your expense?
They’re, not there, Tee Hee…go O’s…
Rich, when convenient, please tell your editor and CEO that I will be leaving this site in disgust if you can't block comments containing profane personal insults.
Seriously, coming from the #1 king of cut & paste….hysterical…go O’s…oh & TEE HEE…
DLR, wth is this?…go O’s….
Spot on post BC. I’ve heard one option could be he’s looking to trade from the surplus of bats for arms. With pitcher drafting success tough with injuries and everything, it might be better to trade bats for proven arms. Sort of the opposite approach of the McPhail era “grow the arms, buy the bats”. We’ll see how it turns out.
Georgia Oriole,
That's my take on things also. You see some interesting under-the-radar trades in the Minors where some teams are doing just that. Here's a good example;
https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2021/07/cleveland-indians-trade-of-jordan-luplow-rhp-dj-johnson-to-rays-for-rhp-peyton-battenfield.html
This Payton Battenfield Guy shut down the BaySox in the Eastern League Playoffs in September handily... I wish the Orioles Had him...he would be a Top 5 Pitching Prospect for the Orioles. Cleveland had to give up a couple of pretty good (but not great) players, but they got a helluva a Prospect in Battenfield.
Battenfield originally drafted by the Asstros, how’d Mikey miss that one…go O’s…
After perusing this entertaining and thorough roundup, I'm seeing Julio back in the schoolyard.
Jorge Julio?
Exactly, Icterus. My bad. My head said "Jorge," but my fingers heard S & G.
Is he wearing white Vans?!
Down by the schoolyard…lol…go O’s…
I've got questions for the Hard Line Optimists, Elias Worshipers, people who know more about baseball than I, or all of the above. In reading Rich's rundown of the meager credentials of our starting pitchers, it seems that the team has ONE of them on its roster with an ability to be a season-long winner at the MLB level. So what are the chances of a couple or three surprise breakouts among the laggards--enough to get the team comfortably under 100 losses this year? How am I wrong in thinking that without incredible free agent signings, the odds of this happening are very close to, or at zero? Also, where have I gone wrong in thinking that this victory-starved gaggle of SP's means the likelihood this year of at least 110 losses is sickeningly high? I am skeptical that an overworked bullpen will bail us out. I don't believe that batting power will overcome sky-high ERAs. I won't be swayed by hopes that miracles will happen. I will grudgingly accept advice to keep quiet and wait for 2024.
WV,
You are not wrong on your outlook for the 2022 season.
It is going to be a tough year again, especially because the Orioles won't have the needed Starting Pitching...
We should start to see one or more of the new pitchers starting to get themselves going in the right direction, and also a hitter or three come up and establish themselves..
We are paying the price from the years of neglect that the Brothers and Elias inherited.. it's that simple in my mind.
No advice WV, agree though it will take at least two top tier pitchers, not sold on Means, he’s the O’s #1 pitcher, but probably a 3/4 on real MLB teams…2024 seems so far away…oh well, go O’s…
Castaway……well said …… we are paying the price.
We were a rudderless ship for far too long.
You can express it metaphorically however you like, but IMHO that’s the bottom line.
WV .... I'm no Elias worshipper but ...
I could see several of these guys figuring things out this year and becoming serviceable. Bauman ... Hall if his infury doesn't prevent it ... Zimmerman or Kremer mabye? But then again ... I could see none of them making it.
Here's to a glass half full for a change.
BRR, Hall should consider controlling his "infury" by taking sedatives.
How embarrassing. I'm going to have to have a long talk with that editor of mine........
There have been several comments in this thread that have had to be removed because of disgusting language.
Please keep your comments to baseball--and let's not get personal.
BRR, No need to be embarrassed. It struck me that 'infury' SHOULD be a word. It's a good portmanteau of 'internal' and 'anger.' Should it become an accepted word, you should get credit as its creator.
Like Hangry…lol…go O’s…
A lot of these guys are on the south side of 25, not that young!
Agree, when I hear young in thinking 21, 22ish…go O’s…
I keep hearing about developing pitchers. About how a certain pitcher may or may not have a good season. I am even hesring that if a “few” of these prospects turn out, we could compete!?!?
Roger Clemmons in his prime ( drug induced or not ) would not get to 20 wins with this “Team” behind him…. We have to get some young defense behind any pitcher, be it Cy Young, or Means….
I get where you're coming from WVOs...I too remember when our defense served us well, and it really could againt butt.....
The sad fact regarding today's game is that you can't catch the balls that are over the fence. Today's game is an all or nothing game. You don't play defense against home runs and strike outs.
Great point Boog
I will say this. If I was handed the keys, and no doubt I never would, I would be thinking that good defense will get ya to the dance. I get the idea of the long ball, but the home run didn’t score 13 runs unless there were guys on base. You can give up the ocassional single blast, but not multiple 2&3 run shots.
If the defence is above average, it changes the way the opponent approaches the game. It is them who needs to be perfect. I am just a firm believer that most, not all, but most great pitching perfomances have been in front of players that could make the difficult plays look routine.
I really do not believe an opponent says "Oh look at their above average defence (what are they British? are we playing cricket?)...we must be perfect." Nah, that just doesn't happen IMO.
Below average spelling...
Cat stats for free!
Correlation of wins vs. pitching stats for 2021 season
Wins vs HR allowed, correlation: -0.740 (negative correlation indicates more HR allowed, less wins)
vs BB allowed: -0.491
vs SO: 0.670
vs FIP: -0.877 (Fielding Independent Pitching, a three outcome stat)
vs WHIP: -0.836
Stat that goes against the grain: MIA had a better FIP than ATL, but ATL won 21 more games than MIA.
Fun fact: O's had the worse FIP in the MLB in 2021.
Correlation of wins vs. fielding stats for 2021 season
vs Defensive Efficiency: 0.518 (defensive efficiency is number of batted balls turned into outs, excluding home runs; note this stat does not account for how hard the balls are hit! It's harder to field/get to a ball smoked 100MPH vs one hit 80 MPH)
vs Fielding %: 0.059
vs DP turned: -0.259 (more men on base, more DP turned)
vs Rdrs: 0.202 (defensive runs saved above average)
Stat that goes against the grain: Chicago White Sox had -40 Rdrs (MLB average 0), 0.982 fielding % (MLB avg 0.985), and a 0.694 defensive efficiency (MLB avg 0.695) but only allowed 3.93 runs per game vs. MLB avg of 4.53 runs per game
Fun Fact: the O's ranked 28th in defensive efficiency in 2021
Correlation of wins vs. batting stats for 2021 season
vs HR hits: 0.706
vs OPS: 0.650
vs BB drawn: 0.584 (not including IBB)
Those who mashed but still finished below 0.500? Minnesota Twins had above average HR hits and OPS and finished with 73 wins.
Fire Elias Now!
Bummer on the Fun Facts, they tell a story, hopefully Mikey is reading this…:)…go O’s…
Hopefully this will get upgraded before the opening series against the jays.
Regardless of who drafted who, half the selling point of this new FO was they were gonna make the players we had, better. “Spin rates” and such.
That hasn’t happened. Not mentioned in Rich’s otherwise fine article is this was one of THE worst pitching staffs in modern MLB history (post WWII).
In short - the pitching has managed to get worse in 3 seasons under Hydias (pronounced Hideous).
Like others I can only guess they plan to get pitchers by trading shortstops and outfielders for them.
Hopefully we keep the right ones…lol…go O’s…