Wade Miley turned in a disastrous performance in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon, allowing seven runs and nine baserunners while recording five outs.
After a strong beginning to the season, Miley is 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA. He had a 2.32 ERA in five April starts, a 3.97 ERA in five May starts, a 7.48 ERA in six June starts and now a 37.80 ERA after his first July start.
Since he was acquired last July in a trade with the Seattle Mariners, Miley is 5-12 with a 5.58 ERA in 28 games for the Orioles. Adding together last year’s two-month salary, this season’s and an option buyout – assuming the Orioles don’t pick up his $12 million option for 2018 – the Orioles will have spent $11-plus million on Miley if he parts ways with the team at year’s end.
Meanwhile, the man the Orioles traded for Miley, lefty Ariel Miranda, is 7-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 17 games for the Mariners, is making $541,000 in 2017 and can’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season.
So, this should be the point in the column where I hammer Orioles’ executive vice president Dan Duquette for a terrible trade, for getting rid of another pitching prospect for a player that isn’t helping the Orioles, or at least isn’t a long-term solution.
Well, I’m not fully going there – as easy as that jump is to make.
Obviously, this trade has not worked out so far and it may not. And Duquette has to be responsible for that.
But there needs to be a little perspective here – this isn’t Jake Arrieta 2.0, it’s probably not even Zach Davies 2.0. What it is, is fair warning as to what may happen at this month’s trade deadline if the Orioles are buyers.
First, the history lesson: Since the Orioles had permission to take on Miley’s salary, it was a move they had to make last July. That’s what I wrote then, and that’s what I still believe.
Also, what I wrote then was that it wasn’t a needle-turner or a difference-maker. That it might have no positive impact whatsoever. Easy to stand by that, too.
To be forthright, I endorsed the deal on a few fronts: The Orioles didn’t have a left-handed starter at the time, they needed to improve their rotation for the stretch run, they didn’t have any actual blue-chip prospects to acquire a top-of-the-rotation arm and there weren’t many quality starters available on the trade market.
That’s probably gonna be the same song again this year – except the left-handed Miley is already pitching every fifth day for the Orioles, as uncomfortable as you may be with that fact.
There was nothing in Miley’s track record versus the American League East or during that 2016 season which suggested he would be the answer to the Orioles’ prayers.
Miley looked like a durable lefty, who would struggle some at Camden Yards, probably pitch to a high-4s/5-ish ERA and go though some ups and downs – basically be a fifth starter.
As for Miranda, he was a swingman with an ERA just under 4 in Triple-A.
I was told Miranda was a fringe big leaguer by people – in and out of the Orioles’ system — who saw him pitch in the minors. And though he appears to be more than that, we’re not talking considerably so.
I – and the Orioles — may have grossly misjudged Miranda, but I doubt it.
Yes, Miranda’s 3.82 ERA is much better than Miley’s, currently. But Miranda’s ERA is 2.56 in eight games at spacious Safeco Field and 5.48 in nine games on the road. I’m not convinced Miranda would have an ERA under four (or five) in the AL East while pitching half of his games at Camden Yards.
And before we say that the Orioles gave up a “prospect” for Miley, let’s remember that Miranda is a Cuban defector who is already 28. He’s only two years younger than Miley; this isn’t a 23-year-old with unlimited upside. Or a young guy with a tick of upside like Davies.
Certainly, I’d take a mulligan on the Miranda-Miley trade, but it would be because of money and controllability, not performance.
The bottom line here is that the Orioles didn’t have the minor league prospects to truly improve their starting pitching last July – and that hasn’t changed for this July or this upcoming offseason.
And, yes, that part is on Duquette, who has not built the deep, prospect-rich farm system he predicted when he was hired (although organization/ownership philosophy of not spending even an average amount on international amateurs hampers the level of talent Duquette can mine).
But let’s not shake our heads and mutter “Ariel Miranda” under our collective breath every time Miley delivers a clunker.
The decision to trade for Miley last year was a minor roll of the dice that made sense at the time. It didn’t look like it would be impactful then, and it hasn’t been.
The problem here isn’t that the Orioles traded Miranda for Miley. Or even that Miley has negated his stretches of solid contribution with disasters like Monday to post a 5-plus ERA since last August.
It’s that these are the moves the Orioles are forced to orchestrate, given their lack of top-shelf minor leaguers and/or their inability to draft and develop consistent starting pitching. And that makes another July of trade talk painful, particularly if the Orioles decide they are buyers.
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Happy 4th to you, Dan, and your "staff" and the Baltimore Baseball readers! First off, I can't imagine the O's will be buyers the way they have been playing and it's not just the pitching that has been atrocious. Offense has been sporadic and the defense, usually near the best in the league, has been average. Yes, the AL East is up for grabs but it's going to take a 15-5 run for the O's to get back in this with authority and as much as it hurts me to say it, they don't have that run in them! So... if they're not buyers, does that make them sellers? I'll wait for your soon to be written column addressing that question.
Well, they did go 22-10 mainly within their division to start. So they have it in them. But no idea if we'll see it again.
I don't mind the Miley trade one bit because, at the time, it made sense. They weren't going to land a top-of-the-line pitcher. They were able to add a lefty who had success in parts of his career for a relatively small price.
Dan, you hit the nail on the head. This goes much deeper than just this trade. There are only so many rabbits DD can pull out of his hat. Without developing more pitchers, we're going to have to settle for moves like this.
If they don't want to spend on free agent pitchers or international prospects and can't develop the ones they draft - where does that leave us?
That's the big question. There has to be a better combined job of drafting and developing. It's not like these guys aren't trying. But, again, my soapbox. They have half the talent to work with if the international end continues to be primarily ignored.
Here's my problem with this. The Orioles have pretty substantial starting pitching problems every year, right? Well, in consecutive years, they had a couple starters at Norfolk pitching fairly well.
In '05, they had Davies: 101.1 IP, 2.84 ERA. In '06, Miranda: 100.2 IP, 3.93 ERA, and a 1.93 ERA in his final 7 starts.
In nearly every case, this is an organization that throws as much you-know-what against the wall as possible and sees what sticks. And yet how many major league starts did they give these two guys to see what they might have? 0. How many did they give the likes of Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Gallardo, Ubaldo, Norris, Miley, etc.?
It speaks very poorly for the organization's ability to evaluate its own talent.
I have to disagree a little bit partner. Good numbers at pitcher friendly doesn't translate easily to going against MLBers at Camden Yards. Miranda looked shell-shocked in his brief time as a MLB reliever. He was not ready for the Camden Yards stage (and was 27). Maybe they whiffed on Davies, but he does have a 5 ERA this year in the NL. I get what you're saying but most evaluators would have taken Wilson and Wright over those 2. And the other guys had proven success in the majors -- and big contracts. My whole problem with this is that people pine over what's gone but complain about thise same players while here. Developing pitching ain't a science. All art.
It's absolutely an art, 100%. I'm not saying either Davies or Miranda are any great shakes, or that they'd be nearly as productive in the AL East. But when you constantly have poor starting pitching and are constantly shuffling guys in and out, I don't think it's unreasonable to wish that these guys had gotten an opportunity of some sort. Especially with an organization that claims to "out opportunity" the competition. Davies never got the call, and Miranda got just one, two-inning relief appearance with O's (4 Ks, 0 BBs, 3 ER, all in the 2nd inning IIRC). That's not much of an opportunity IMO.
I agree with Karks. This team cannot rolloff a streak of 15-5. They are a .500 and that is stretching it team. People forget and I know Connolly does we played off of Andy McPhail moves for years.
They, meaning Angelos and the great DD wouldn't give Nelson Cruz an extra year , But did go out and sign the Cy Young candidate UBABLDO.
Move what players in trades you can. If any are wanted. I hope they wouldn't let Jonathen, Manny, and Trey go. The starters? If Bundy is exhausted already , he'll never be able to give the O's a 30+ start season. Machado again i repeat hasn't been the same since the NATS give Harper the 20+ MILL for 2018. that was also, a slap in Angelos's face. SELL THE TEAM ANGELOS AND MASN TOO OOPS HE CAN'T IT'S IN LITIGATION.
No question, MacPhail's trades built this foundation. An amazing job. But you can't dismiss Duquette's acquisitions altogether. Yes, they should have given the fourth year to Cruz. But Duq is the only one that would sign Cruz and surrender a draft pick. I try to be balanced here. And the Harper thing has nothing to do with Machado. All it did was avoid arbitration for one year. It's not like it was a long-term deal. Basically a formality. I promise you that's not in Machado's mindset. We all know he is getting paid handsomely in 2018 regardless.
Dan, are you an employee of Mr. Angelos and the Orioles??
Ok, this is shot 2. We get on shot 3, I'm done with you. We don't have to agree. I respect all opinions. But be respectful. Never -- ever -- have I been accused of being a lapdog. I'm not an emotional fan either. I look at all angles. So here's my bottom line: Keep it respectful, and let's talk baseball. Be a jerk, take personal attacks on my integrity and, please, move on.
Did i touch a nerve.? If you want people to agree with you on everything. take me off your site.
I agree with Jhhuff.....take him off the site.
Boog, are you related to Mr. Connolly? This site is a your right Dan site. I'm gone. they're are many of these sites, more interesting and have open and truthful statements to these Ori-ole problems. With out what seems to be a few whom can't take any joking criticism.
I agree JHuff .. Some people don't even recognize a joke. Buh-Bye
Duquette needs to do better in pitching evaluations...bringing in pitchers that just are not that good-miley,jimenez,ynoa,asher, fry, aquino, lee...the only pickup that looks like he may help is castro...bleier is pitching well now but he looks more like a journeyman to me-time will tell but if dan does not do anything productive at the deadline he may need to go..i have followed the o's since 1962 and some losing teams but never remember a streak of horrible starting pitching like this...that streak of 5 run games is amazing and not in a good way...Duquette better hope sedlock, akin, scott, means, long and maybe david hess develope into decent mlb pitchers.
Not sure there's much to debate here except unless you are trading Machado/Britton/Brach you're not going to have an impactful deadline.
To be fair, Duquette also signed Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez, both of whom were key members of the rotation for several winning Orioles teams. So he's had a lot of misses, but also a couple of big hits.
I agree with karks but even if we sign international prospects, we still have to develop them. I am astounded as to the lack of development of any pitcher within this organization over the last 20 years. I just do not get it, how can it be so bad for so long. Matusz and Britton had sky high starter potential and we got nothing, Gausman is right behind them.
To be fair, Britton is one of the best closers in baseball. I wouldn't call that nothing.
Yes, but not the ace his talent projected. They didn't develop him as a closer, they lucked into that.
Not including a poor start in Minnesota , the last three road starts for Miranda. 17 innings and 4 earned runs including his last start in Anaheim (7 innings, 0 runs). The other two starts were in Coors (a very tough place to pitch against a high powered offense) and against the Nats, another strong hitting team. Both games 5 innings, 2 earned runs. Not too bad from a "fringe" player. I think most managers would take a pitching line like that from a 5th starter. Even when Miley had his low ERA he was getting hit hard, missing his spots and seemingly always pitching with runners on. He was basically getting lucky for a month in a half. Just as lucky to find a team to give him the kind of money we are.
For the record, the Orioles didn't give him that money. It was guaranteed in a contract w the Red Sox. He was getting it from someone anyway.
Very true. I concur. So let me edit that last sentence to, any major league team. Lol. I still think Dan's heart is in the right place and hindsight is 20/20 for sure when it comes to questionable trades. DD certainly doesn't have the easiest job in the world. Just frustrating as a fan and the sheer lack of young pitcher development is a serious issue and has been for years now. They can't all be winners (I.e. Hobgood, Loewen, etc...) but you'd like to think we'd be doing better than we have done for the last 20 some odd years. A lot of it stems from poor drafting as well but it seems that has slowly improved recently. Thank you for your reply and have a great day.
Good reasoned stuff, Apple. Thanks for chiming in. And I'm with you. Consistently, the Orioles have failed to draft and develop pitching. And it goes way back. It's hard to do, of course. Few teams do it well. But it is a concern
Waaaaaaaaahhhh.... Fire Thrift ... Beatty ... Flanagan ... "McFail" ... and now it's Dan Duquettes turn ....
When do we realize that the buck stops with ownership?
Fire Dan? Watch out for what you wish for Bal'more. Let's not forget that we've been tantalizingly close these past 5 or 6 years, and frankly, they're still not in that bad of shape. A couple of starting pitchers maybe ... The light will come on for Gausman and Bundy any time now. Let these boys grow a little before selling the farm. As long as Dan wants to stay here ... he's my boy.
Duq has had one losing season in his lengthy career -- and that probably needed an asterisk -- that's not just luck or in the right place at the right time. Three times.
wouldn't it be nice if duquette didn't trade away or let leave so many young pitchers for nothing and we could choice from Jake Arrieta,Kyle Davies, Eduardo Rodriguez,Josh Hader,Ariel Miranda,Parker Bridwell,Andrew Truggs or even steven Brault to help with this disaster which is our starting pitching staff. What makes it worse is we got nothing of value for any of these guys except Andrew Miller helped us make the playoffs that year.
meant to say Triggs
Not that I endorse it, but the argument can be made that Norris was a huge part of the 2014 run -- especially his playoff gem. Doesn't justify that trade for me, but hard to say that was nothing. And again outside of Jake and Erod, not sure sleep needs to be lost here. But, yes, they would have been options.
Happy 4th of July everyone and remember not to play with matches. Looks like we have started the eulogy halfway through the autopsy but we can still make the next 80 games interesting. We all know what hasn't worked -- some of us even when it occurred -- so whether you want to fire or rehire Duquette let's read some realistic proposals from the amateur GMs. Who goes either by trade or release and who do you bring in or move up? For all the names of the departed noted here many still weren't considered prime prospects then or now. It is interesting that in the complaints there aren't a lot of position players listed although many are now criticizing the Os once vaunted defense and what happened to all that speed and athleticism to balance the power? So while you're smoking whatever today give some thoughts on who goes or stays to make this interesting like the last 32 games of the 2010 season.
Good post, Gary. And that's the point. If you want to blow this up and build the system the only way to do that is to move Manny/Britton/Brach/Schoop. That's the quartet that is FAs in next couple years and would bring back a major haul (Jones can veto any trade as a 10-5). Let's not say trade Trumbo and Davis and Ubaldo and Miley. That doesn't change the future any.
Dan, So I'm looking at Brach as the guy to dangle out there to trade for a decent starting pitcher. Assume Britton is healthy and pitches well, Givens gets promoted to set-up man, and they get whatever juice is left in O'Day's arm for 7th inning work. Hart and Bleier might be effective, fingers crossed. But the big picture shows the O's will need 3 new starters next year, and there is no way they will find 3 GOOD free agent starters in their budget. So go get one now in a trade. Somebody already decent and with potential, not a rental. Maybe Brach could entice a contender who needs one more short man. Figure to drop some big bucks on 1 free agent starter in the off-season, and one guy from the system (Chris Lee?). There's your 3.
John: good post. Here's my one reality check. I'm not sure there is a contender so deep in starting pitching that they'd be willing to give up a current quality starter for relief help. The Nats are only team that comes to mind. Brach could get you something good, but it probably would be a starter still a year or so away. Think Eduardo Rodriguez in 2014. Something in that neighborhood. My guess anyway.
At some point, the Orioles need to stop looking for the quick fix. The farm system isn't that strong and we can't keep giving away the few prospects we have. In my mind, we gave away Miranda for a wild card loss to Toronto last year. Honestly, were the 2016 Orioles going to win the World Series last year? No. Our best chance was 2014 but we went into that postseason without Machado, Davis and Wieters. I don't think we should gut the team but I think it is time to retool. Being buyers this year will only delay the process. We need pitching and we are going to be near-sighted until we get some.
Again, I'm leery to call some of those guys prospects. And making the playoffs is making the playoffs. It's not the end goal, of course. Only one team is contented each year. But making the playoffs is an accomplishment and constitutes a good season imo.
Oops. Spell check got me again. I meant near-contenders not near-contenders.
Happy 4th Dan!
I finally discovered bb,com this season and it was perfect timing. Living out here in the left coast, this site definitely has helped me stay sane this year.. Given that, I actually disagree for once with you. I do not subscribe to the notion that the management team had (or has) no choice but make deals like Miley's. The problem there is you are kicking the can down the road, so to speak. At some point, management should own up to the reality that trying to "win now" will not work, and probably hurt the team for the next season. This year is definitely one of those years, and we would be best served by trying to clean house. Boston did this, finished last one year and right back in it the next. Not saying we have to finish last, but I'll take my chances. I'll even watch them more often!
Keep up the great work!
Sfosfan
SF: First, really glad you found us. Second, I'm not opposed to a major overhaul. But I just don't think it will happen. Third, the majority of free agents leave after 2018, so I suppose one more kick of the can down the road may not be the worst thing. But I'm real skeptical that the missing piece for this team is available in July. Especially for what the Orioles have available in the minors.
buying wont help long term. sell Machado for multiple potentials. Only other bait is Schoop and he needs to stay.
That's the reality of it Ben. If the mindset is rebuilding, then Machado and Schoop are your top 2 bait.
It is time to redo the O's b-cause of the poor management ...so, I suggest a complete rebuilding of the organization based on the winning principles of pitching and defense.
We replace Duquette with Bordick as G.M. Replace Showalter with Dempsy as manager,
Get Palmer to be in charge of all pitchers and coaches to create a winning pitching series,
Get Ripken t be in charge of the drafting and minor league teams.
To get talent to support this ...trade/ release ..Machado, Jones, Davis, Trumbo, Britton most of whom are on the downward side of their career. Keep pitchers Bordy,Gausman, Givens, Brach
Let the rest go! Field this team ..LF kim,cf Rickard Rf smith,3rd ? SS Schoop, 2nd flarety 1st
Mancini, c Joseph& castillo. Bring to the team youth and the winning ways that those I suggest
To take over running the organization will bring ... I think the O's fans would endorse this makeover...I have been an O's fan since 1936 when I joined the O's Knockhole gang for .15
So Go O's
Jake
Jake: appreciate you joining us. I don't think I could endorse a full management change with people who have never held the positions you detailed. This current group has had a winning record in 4 of 5 seasons. I don't think a full management overhaul is needed
Dan: I appreciate your comments, however, in my humble opinion, the management style of the existing team is faulted ...WHY...the poor condition of the O's minor league
Teams for providing talent for the majors. The unrealistic payments made to ...
Writers, Davis when it appeared that no other teams were nvolved in bidding for them. The signing and payment of 50million to Juarerz...the "bottom fishing" done by
Duquette for other pitchers..the fact, in my opinion, that Hardy, Jones, Davis, Trumbo
Are on the downward side of their careers....if they have any market value NOW is the
Time to trade them for youth.
Also, the folks I suggest to replace them are ex-winning O's who have stayed close to the O's in jobs that give them a close look at the organization as knowledgable baseball vets.
Jake
Jake, putting people in roles they're not qualified for is how the Orioles ended up in their 14-year losing stretch. Now you're suggesting they do it again. What makes Mike Bordick remotely qualified to be a major league GM, other than that he played one season for a winning Orioles team? I think even Bordick would laugh if someone suggested hiring him to be a GM. And I think the ship has sailed on Dempsey as a manager, too.
If the Orioles were going to replace their GM and manager, I think they'd be better served to go outside the organization and hire up-and-comers who can bring a fresh outlook. But they'd be hard-pressed to find any manager who'd be better for them than Buck.
Dan: I appreciate your comments, however, in my humble opinion, the management style of the existing team is faulted ...WHY...the poor condition of the O's minor league
Teams for providing talent for the majors. The unrealistic payments made to ...
Weiters, Davis when it appeared that no other teams were involved in bidding for them. The signing and payment of 50million to Juarerz...the "bottom fishing" done by
Duquette for other pitchers..the fact, in my opinion, that Hardy, Jones, Davis, Trumbo
Are on the downward side of their careers....if they have any market value NOW is the
Time to trade them for youth.
Also, the folks I suggest to replace them are ex-winning O's who have stayed close to the O's in jobs that give them a close look at the organization as knowledgable baseball vets.
Jake
Dan: this is a great place to get all different ideas of how to improve our 0's
I hope the Angelos read it.
Thanks for providing the venue.
Jake
The real issue is failure by DD to make the tough calls (and/or Angelos). We can't decide whether we are all in or all out, so we do a small move that really does nothing either way Miley/Miranda, Parra/Davies, Hunter/Lake. You need to be decisive or you get run over. Two years ago, with Davis, O'Day, Wieters, Chen all due to be free agents, the team was just muddling, showing no fire. We needed to sell off then and two lasting impacts would put us in a different position today. 1st, we should have at least 1 more decent prospect. 2nd, we probably would have lost a few more games and had a protected 1st round draft pick instead of losing a pick for another bum free agent. So either DD is horrible at making decisions, or Angelos meddles in these key decisions. Given the fact we bid against ourselves for Davis with Mancini ready and waiting, makes me think ultimately it is still Angelos sinking the ship and will always be. Just like the same reason MASN looks like it is run out of a basement.
There is still a month to play before the deadline, but right now it looks like we are facing another tough decision and I hope we make the right one. I think we need to trade anyone not named Bundy, Gausman, Givens, Mancini, Schoop... and maybe I would consider Schoop, but I think he maybe more signable than Manny and I believe still 2 years of team control.
Yeah. Schoop is controllable through 2019. Manny, Brach, Britton, Jones thru 2018.
Here's my take on the the 2018 Orioles at mid-season. Once again, nothing substantial was done during the off-season to bolster the rotation. I was disappointed, but not surprised since this has been the pattern for many years. Tillman's shoulder trouble made it clear that the rotation was in for rough sailing. Well, here we are at the halfway point and we've had some dismally rough times. It's no surprise that this affects most of the team's performance. Unless a 'baseball miracle' shines down upon the Baltimore Orioles, I doubt they will end up with a .500 record this year.