Why do Orioles have to pay Gunnar Henderson such a large salary in 2027? | MAILBAG

Question: Are sports one of the only “businesses” [maybe tech, finance or auto CEO?] where you can perform poorly and still get a massive raise?  I’m thinking especially of Henderson with the jump from $8.5 to $14.1 million, but some other O’s players fit this category as well.  And someone gets a raise even without playing a single game in 2026? From: Bob Stier

Answer: Bob, I can’t comment on other businesses, and sports is big business, but you’re referring to the arbitration system.

According to calculations by MLBTradeRumors.com, they think Gunnar Henderson is in line for a $14.1 million salary in 2027.

You’re also referring to Jordan Westburg, who had Tommy John surgery in May, didn’t play this season, and is in line for a $1.5 million salary.

Players generally have three seasons, their fourth, fifth and sixth in the majors where they can go to arbitration to determine their salary if they’re unhappy with what their team has offered them.

Henderson is in his second season of arbitration eligibility, his fifth overall while Westburg is in his first arb-eligible season.

Because of his first three-plus seasons with the Orioles, he and the team agreed on an $8.5 million. While he didn’t have a terrific season in 2026, he still had a 3.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

It’s not guaranteed that Henderson will receive a $14.1 million salary next season, but MLBTR.com has a good record of estimating these figures.

Westburg’s salary this year was $802,800. It was his final season before arbitration, so he had to accept a salary close to the minimum. Players in their first three seasons generally have to accept a salary at or close to the minimum allowed by the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Had Westburg played in 2026, he could have commanded a salary much greater than what he’s likely to receive.

Teams do have an option if they don’t like what they may have to pay a player in the arbitration process. In July, the Orioles traded Dean Kremer, who could receive $6.5 million in arbitration, because they may have not wanted to pay that much.

They can also choose to not offer a contract at all to a player eligible for arbitration, making them a free agent. They’ve done this in the past and last year re-signed Albert Suárez, who is again eligible for arbitration, to a minor league contract.

Question: So after the interview with Gunnar, thoughts on him signing or not? As you told me during spring training, you said the O’s would only go as far as Gunnar would take them. From: Sandra Freund

Answer: Sandra, had Henderson performed at a much higher level, I think the Orioles could have made up the 4 ½ games separating them from a playoff spot. He, perhaps even more than Pete Alonso, is that much of a difference maker.

Henderson isn’t going to sign an extension this offseason. Players don’t sign long-term contracts after the worst season of their career, and the Orioles aren’t going to offer him a long-term deal now.

It seems unlikely that he’ll ever sign a long-term deal with the Orioles. If he plays well in 2027, then both sides can try for a deal ahead of his upcoming free agency. He’s eligible for free agency following the 2028 season.

If the Orioles aren’t in playoff contention at next summer’s trade deadline, perhaps they’ll move Henderson, as they did with Adley Rutschman.

Most weekdays, I’ll be answering at least one Orioles question. If you’d like to submit a question, send it to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com. Questions may be edited for clarity, length and style.