Orioles should not trade Adley Rutschman | MAILBAG

Question: With the O’s disappointing season, it makes sense that other teams will be looking to get a few Orioles with a trade. I would think other teams would like to acquire Adley Rutschman. With Samuel Basallo being signed long term and Adley’s contract getting closer to expiring, which team do you think would give the most to trade for Adley and would Mike Elias be willing, or do the analytics tell Elias to hold? Your thoughts? From: Charlie Rice

Answer: Charlie, I don’t think the Orioles will trade catcher Adley Rutschman, nor should they trade him.

No matter how this season ends, I think the Orioles are not interested in a rebuild. They’ll want to contend next season, and I think having both Basallo and Rutschman on the team makes them a better one.

While it may not be likely, I think the Orioles should try to re-sign Rutschman.

The season is only halfway over, and Basallo has never played a full major league season. Having another excellent catcher is a good idea, and either can be the designated hitter if they’re not catching.

I’m sure many teams would be interested and, yes, Rutschman will be a free agent after 2027, but it’s rare that teams receive adequate return for star players.

Trading Rutschman would weaken the team for the next 1 ½ seasons, and the Orioles would have to find an adequate backup for Basallo.

I know Rutschman’s trade value would be higher now than it would be a year from now, but if they’re serious about being a contender, they should keep him.

Question: Based on their performances as of midseason do you predict either Trevor Rogers or Taylor Ward will be extended a qualifying offer this year? From: Craig Russell

Answer: Craig, if both Rogers and Ward perform in the second half as they did in the first half, I think they’ll both be proffered qualifying offers.

I think Rogers could re-sign here in free agency, and the Orioles could certainly use him in 2027 and beyond. With labor uncertainties, I wouldn’t be surprised if he accepted a qualifying offer, which should be north of the $22.05 million it was last fall.

Ward is a more interesting case. He hasn’t demonstrated the power that he has in the past, but his overall value is strong analytically. His 1.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is second only to Pete Alonso.

He’s by far their most productive outfielder, and analytically he’s having his best year defensively.

They don’t have any outfield prospects ready to play regularly in the majors in 2027, and having Ward for another year would be in the team’s best interests.

Of course, this is far too early to be making decisions on qualifying offers. We should revisit this near the end of the season, which is three months away.

If both Rogers and Ward decline the offers and sign elsewhere, which again could be tricky because of a possible lockout, the Orioles would get a pair of draft choices, so it could be a win-win for them.

Most weekdays, I’ll be answering at least one Orioles question. If you’d like to submit a question, send it to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com. Questions may be edited for clarity, length and style.