Will the Orioles finally draft a pitcher in the 1st round?

The amateur draft is just over three weeks away, and there are plenty of guesses about who the Orioles will take with the seventh overall pick on July 11^th.

Most of the speculation centers on Mississippi high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr., and Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress. Others who may be considered are Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron, and LSU outfielder Derek Curiel. One publication, FanSided, forecasts that the Orioles will take left-hander pitcher Gio Rojas from Parkland, Florida’s Stoneman Douglas High School

That’s the same school the Orioles drafted Coby Mayo from in second round of the 2020 draft.

In the seven years president of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias has run the organization, the Orioles haven’t taken a pitcher with the first pick, though he’s always insisted that he’d consider one if it made sense.

In those seven drafts, just two pitchers that Elias has chosen, right-handers Kade Strowd (12^th round, 2019) and Cameron Weston (8^th round, 2022), have played for the Orioles.

Strowd had a 1.71 ERA in 25 games for the Orioles last season before he was traded along with two other minor league pitchers to Arizona in February for utility player Blaze Alexander.

Weston threw a scoreless inning for the Orioles on May 28^th in his only major league game, and he’s back at Triple-A Norfolk.

Two undrafted pitchers have started games for the Orioles this season. Brandon Young, who wasn’t taken among the six picks in the pandemic-shortened 2020 draft, and Trey Gibson, undrafted in 20 rounds in 2023, have been pluses.

While Elias didn’t take a pitcher in the first five rounds until the 2022 draft, when the Orioles selected Nolan McLean, who didn’t sign with them and is now with the New York Mets, he’s drafted pitchers in earlier rounds since then.

Last year’s picks look promising. With their two second-round selections, the Orioles chose right-handers Joseph Dzierwa (58^th) and JT Quinn (69^th).

Dzierwa, who struck out eight batters in the Spring Breakout game against Boston Red Sox prospects, is a combined 6-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 13 games at High-A Frederick and Double-A Chesapeake.

Quinn is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 12 starts for the Keys. Sixth-round pick Caden Hunter has already earned a promotion to Frederick after a 1.17 ERA in six games, five starts, at Single-A Delmarva.

Of the 10 pitchers to start games for the Orioles this season, only Keegan Akin, who opened twice, was drafted by the team. That was in 2016, more than two years before Elias arrived.

Gibson and Young have combined for 15 starts, but the team’s Opening Day rotation — Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin — were not Oriole products. Bassitt was signed as a free agent. The team traded for the other four.

Two other pitchers acquired in deals, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich, who have started five times this season, are both on the injured list. They’re scheduled to begin rehab assignments soon.

The lack of drafted first-round starters is in sharp contrast with the team the Orioles are playing this week, the Seattle Mariners.

The Orioles are facing Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby were first-round picks by Seattle in 2018 and 2019. Woo was a sixth-round pick in 2021.

In a four-game series last week in Baltimore, the Orioles faced Gilbert, Kirby, Woo and Emerson Hancock, the sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft. The Mariners have a six-man rotation, which also includes Bryce Miller, a fourth-round pick in 2021, and Luis Castillo, acquired from Cincinnati in a 2022 trade.

While Seattle has drafted pitching in high rounds, the Orioles have concentrated on position players. Six of their 13 position players (Mayo, Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Adley Rutschman) are homegrown. Only three pitchers are — Akin, Gibson and Young.

When Elias had three consecutive overall No. 1 picks with the Houston Astros, he was successful with shortstop Carlos Correa in 2012 and missed on pitchers Mark Appel and Brady Aiken in 2013 and 2014.

Appel finally pitched in six major league games for Philadelphia in 2022, nine years after he was drafted. Aiken, who didn’t sign with Houston because of injury concerns, never played in the majors.

Perhaps Elias’ reluctance to draft pitchers in the first round stems from his bad experience with Appel and Aiken. Since Aiken didn’t sign, the Astros were given the No. 2 overall pick in 2015 and picked a winner in Alex Bregman. Three selections later, they chose outfielder Kyle Tucker.

There will be plenty of additional mock drafts and lots of chatter in the next three weeks, but the guess here is that the Orioles will again go the position-player route with their top pick.

Call for questions: Most weekdays, I’ll be answering at least one Orioles question. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com