What’s wrong with Henderson, Alonso, Cowser? | MAILBAG

Question: It is hard to watch Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso and Colton Cowser struggle. Are the opposing pitchers just that good? Is there something wrong with the coaching? Or, are they all just in a slump? From: Sallye Perrrin 

Answer: Sallye, let’s look at them individually. Henderson is batting .189 and has struck out 36 times in 106 at-bats, just under 34 percent of his at-bats. He’s always been a player who strikes out a lot. Even in 2024 when he hit .281 with an .893 OPS, he still struck out in 25 percent of his at-bats.

In 2023 when he won Rookie of the Year, Henderson was hitting even worse through 25 games, .182.

He has hit seven home runs, so he’s shown some power. I’m guessing he’ll get on a hot streak soon because he is just too good a hitter to be hitting this poorly for this long.

The same is true for Alonso, but I think he’s still adjusting to a new environment, and I think both he and Henderson will be hitting a lot better on May 24^th than April 24^th.

Cowser is a bit more worrisome. He’s struck out in nearly 36 percent of his at-bats. In his major league career, he’s struck out in 36.2 percent of his at-bats.

He doesn’t have the track record that Henderson and Alonso have.

The Orioles have faced some excellent pitchers, particularly in Cleveland, but I don’t think that’s the issue. As for coaching, the Orioles have had seven batting coaches over the last three seasons, so I don’t think that’s it.

I’m guessing Henderson and Alonso are just having rough starts to their season and will be much better. We’ll see if Cowser improves in the coming days and weeks.

Question: Are the Orioles having worse than average luck on offense? It seems like every game there are a lot of loud outs with ground balls and lineouts with exit velocities over 100mph, in particular from Samuel Basallo and Pete Alonso. Am I being optimistic about an eventual turnaround in fortune or are the O’s on par with the rest of the league in bad luck? From: Joe M.

Answer: Joe, according to Baseball Savant, the Orioles have a hard-hit ball percentage of 43 percent, which entering Thursday’s games, was the fifth highest in baseball. Their slugging percentage  is .381 and their expected slugging percentage is .397, which indicates that, yes, their luck is somewhat worse than average.

As for individual players, eight of the 10 Orioles with the most at-bats have a lower than expected batting average (xBA) than their actual batting average.

The most extreme is Blaze Alexander, who has a .185 average and .283 expected batting average for a -.098 difference. The others are Coby Mayo (.164, .221 xBA -.057 difference), Samuel Basallo (.172, .223 xBA -.051 difference), Gunnar Henderson  (.189, .220 xBA, -.031 difference), Colton Cowser (.189, .204 xBA -.015 difference), Dylan Beavers (.226, .240 xBA, -.014 difference), Taylor Ward (.283, .287 xBA, -004 difference), Pete Alonso (.213 .215 xBA. -.002 difference and two players whose expected average is higher Jeremiah Jackson (.295, .274 xBA, +.021 difference) and Leody Taveras (.327, .294 xBA +.33 difference)

Most weekdays, I’ll be answering at least one Orioles question. If you’d like to submit a question, send it to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com. Questions may be edited for clarity, length and style.