Loss of Valdez leaves Orioles scrambling for few remaining free-agent starters

After three months of speculation that the Orioles and Framber Valdez could settle on a contract, Wednesday’s news of Valdez signing a three-year, $115 million deal with the Detroit Tigers came as a surprise.

Valdez was by far the best remaining free agent on the market, and after failing to sign either him or Ranger Suárez, the Orioles are left looking for an alternative.

Suárez and the Boston Red Sox agreed on a five-year, $130 million contract, leaving the Orioles the supposed front-runner for the 32-year-old left-hander.

Fans are disappointed that the Orioles failed to land Valdez. After the 2024 season, they were angry that starting pitcher Corbin Burnes spurned them to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Later, there were reports of a four-year, $180 million offer to Burnes by the Orioles. The $45 million average annual value was higher than the six-year, $210 contract Burnes agreed to pitch near his home.

Burnes lives in the Phoenix area, allowing him to live where the Diamondbacks play and hold spring training. He negotiated an opt-out after the 2026 season, but after having Tommy John surgery in June after just 11 starts, the likelihood of his opting out next fall doesn’t seem high.

Valdez has an opt-out after the 2027 season.

We don’t know why Valdez chose the Tigers over the Orioles, but there are a few logical reasons.

Even if Valdez signed with the Orioles, they still would have faced a difficult road winning the American League East. The AL East remains the most difficult division in the game, and beating out the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox for even a wild-card berth would be an accomplishment.

Pitching in the East is a challenge, and Valdez has a 7.22 ERA against the Yankees in six starts. While his ERA against the Orioles’ other three opponents isn’t bad, (Boston 3.10, Tampa Bay, 3.60, Toronto 4.17), he only had to pitch against them a maximum of twice a season.

His numbers against the American League Central are more impressive. He’s 5-0 with a 2.30 ERA against Cleveland, 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA against Chicago, 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA against Minnesota, and 2-3 with a 3.29 against Kansas City.

It’s easier pitching four times a season against those AL Central teams than against the behemoths of the East.

Even before adding Valdez, the Tigers were the clear favorites to win the Central, and he’ll have an easier path to the postseason there.

For 2026, Detroit retains Tarik Skubal, who’s won the last two Cy Young awards and beat the Tigers in arbitration with a record $32 million salary.

Valdez doesn’t have the pressure of being the No. 1 starter this season, and October baseball is a likelihood.

Where does that leave the Orioles?

There are a handful of starters left on the free-agent market who could fit into the rotation, but none would be the Orioles’ Opening Day starter.

Right-hander Zac Gallen, who might be kicking himself for turning down the Diamondbacks’ $22.025 million qualifying offer, is the highest-rated starter remaining on the market.

The 30-year-old Gallen was 13-15 with a 4.83 ERA for Arizona last season, and MLBTradeRumors predicted he’d command a four-year, $80 million contract. FanGraphs predicted a two-year, $36 million deal.

If the Orioles sign Gallen, they’d need to surrender their third-round pick, the 84^th overall. That didn’t seem like a deal-breaker for Valdez, but it might affect the Orioles’ pursuit of Gallen.

Gallen probably would fit third or fourth in an Orioles rotation behind Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and perhaps Shane Baz while Valdez could have led it.

The other bigger name free agents remaining are back-of-the rotation guys — Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell and Justin Verlander. Adding them would add heft to the rotation and increases options beyond Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and a perhaps rehabbing Zach Eflin.

Recently, another well-known free agent, Max Scherzer, suggested he might wait until the season begins before signing with a team.

With pitchers and catchers reporting on Tuesday, the Orioles would need to sign a starter this weekend to have him up and running next week.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.