Measuring Orioles’ starting rotation against AL East rivals

In this most peculiar of all free agent markets, the Orioles have been linked with nearly all the remaining top-tier unsigned starters.

For nearly three months, the baseball world has been eagerly awaiting for Framber Valdez to make a decision on his team for 2026 and beyond.

No one knows exactly what the holdup is, but it’s a fair guess that Valdez isn’t getting offers for the five years, $150 million that both MLBTradeRumors.com and FanGraphs predicted he’d receive back in November.

The Orioles would have to surrender their third-round draft choice, the 82^nd overall to sign Valdez, who turned down a $22.025 qualifying offer from the Houston Astros.

They’d have to do the sign to sign Zac Gallen, who last pitched for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

However, they’re free to sign Lucas Giolito, whom Jon Heyman of the New York Post says they’re interested in.

Giolito is 31, and the right-hander who missed the 2024 season with elbow surgery, had a nice season for the Boston Red Sox in 2025.

He was 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts. He missed the first month of the season with a hamstring injury, and couldn’t pitch in the postseason due to arm injuries.

The Red Sox, who signed left-hander Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract, also added Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Orioles had interest in Suárez, but with Gray joining Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Johan Oveido, who was acquired from Pittsburgh, there’s seemingly no room at the inn for Giolito.

Boston also has Kutter Crawford, who missed last season with knee and wrist injuries and promising left-handed rookies Connelly Early and Payton Tolle as depth options.

With Crochet, who finished second in the Cy Young voting to Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, the Red Sox seemingly have a strong rotation.

The Orioles’ other top rivals the Blue Jays and Yankees probably have better rotations, too.

New York has Max Fried, a high school classmate of Giolito. Fried finished fourth in Cy Young voting. They also have Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlitter, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Ryan Weathers, who was traded from Miami.

Rodón had elbow surgery and won’t be ready to start the season, and Gerrit Cole, who had Tommy John surgery, will join the rotation in May or June.

Toronto signed the best free agent starter, Dylan Cease for seven years and $210 million to join Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, rookie Tres Yesavage, who was so impressive in the postseason and Cody Ponce, who returns to the majors after a stint in South Korea.

That rotation is so strong there may not be room for José Berrios, who has a lifetime record of 10-2 with a 3.51 ERA against the Orioles.

The Blue Jays have passed on Chris Bassit, another starter sometimes mentioned as an Orioles target and Max Scherzer, who may wait until later in the season to join a team.

Those Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees rotations look strong, and while the Orioles’ projected starters of Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Zach Eflin isn’t bad, an addition of Valdez—or even Giolito could help tremendously.

In 2023, the Orioles rotation of Bradish, Kremer, Wells, Kyle Gibson and Grayson Rodriguez combined to start 138 games. The Orioles won 101 games and the American League East, though they were swept in the Division Series by Texas.

In 2024, their six top starters: Kremer, Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes, Albert Suárez, Cole Irvin and Cade Povich started 132 games. Eflin, who was added at the trade deadline and Bradish, whose season ended in June due to Tommy John surgery, started 17 more.

That team won 91 and was swept in the wild-card series by Kansas City.

Last year, the Orioles top six: Kremer, Eflin, Povich, Rogers, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton had only 128 starts. Bradish and Wells, who also returned from elbow surgery had 10 more and rookie Brandon Young started 12.

That team won only 75 games.

With just over a week until Orioles’ pitchers and catchers report to Sarasota, it’s clear the team can’t wait much longer for another addition to the rotation.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.