Thoughts on Orioles’ win total in 2026, Hall of Fame results

No one knows how many games the Orioles will win in 2026. Betonline.ag has its early win totals for major league teams, and their guess is 84 ½.

A year ago, they predicted the Orioles would win 89 ½. That was wildly off, and they won only 75.

Looking at the American League East, they predict 93 ½ wins for the New York Yankees, 91 ½ for the Toronto Blue Jays, 87 ½ for the Boston Red Sox and 78 ½ for the Tampa Bay Rays.

I don’t gamble and am disturbed by its prevalence around sports. However, I follow these predictions because I think they’re fun, and not necessarily an accurate gauge for performance.

In October, this site had Chicago Cubs bench coach and former Orioles infielder Ryan Flaherty as its favorite for Orioles manager. Craig Albernaz, who was hired, was listed as 22/1, the same odds assigned former manager Buck Showalter, a most unlikely choice.

If you believe the win total is close to being accurate, Oriole fans could be in for an exciting season.

The Orioles’ 84 ½ wins were the same number given the Houston Astros, and one more than the Texas Rangers.

That would mean the Orioles and Astros would finish in a tie for the third wild-card spot, just a game ahead of the Rangers.

These win totals will probably be adjusted before Opening Day, but it will be interesting to see how close it is to the actual number.

Hall of Fame thoughts

I voted for Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones, who were elected to the Hall of Fame. I also voted for Chase Utley and Andy Pettitte, who finished third and fourth in the balloting.

Of the 425 ballots, 20.9 percent voted for the maximum 10 players, and the average ballot had 5.77 names.

It was the weakest ballot in memory, and while Beltrán and Jones are worthy additions, there were no slam dunks among the candidates. I was quite comfortable with just four selections.

Neither Beltrán nor Jones had 3,000 hits or 500 home runs, but many fine Hall of Famers didn’t reach either of those milestones.

In the coming years, there’ll be some players with those lofty numbers. Two years from now, Albert Pujols, who had 3,384 hits and 703 home runs, will easily be elected. A year later, Miguel Cabrera (3,174 hits, 511 home runs) will join the Hall.

Several still active players have a good chance at 3,000 hits or 500 home runs.

Freddie Freeman (2,431), Jose Altuve (2,388) and Manny Machado (2,069) each seem to have a good chance of reaching 3,000 hits while Giancarlo Stanton (453), Mike Trout (404), Machado (369), Aaron Judge (368), Freeman (367), Bryce Harper (363), Kyle Schwarber (340) and Shohei Ohtani (280) each has a reasonable chance of hitting 500 home runs.

While they won’t be on the ballot until they’ve been retired for five years and some could have five or 10 years left in their careers, there might be more attractive candidates in the future.

Two pitchers did well in the balloting who had fewer than 200 wins. Félix Hernández (169 wins, 46.1 percent) and Cole Hamels (163, 23.8 percent) could be future enshrinees.

No pitcher has won 300 games since Randy Johnson did it in 2009, and the next certain starting pitchers to be considered will be Justin Verlander (266), Clayton Kershaw (223) and Max Scherzer (221).

Kershaw retired after last season, but is on the roster for Team USA in the upcoming World Baseball Classic while Verlander and Scherzer have yet to sign with a team for 2026.

We all know that wins aren’t the only stat that matters for a starter, but Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer’s dominance has been lengthy, something that wasn’t the case for Hernández or Hamels.

Perhaps I’ll change my mind and vote for one or both of them in the future, but what’s wrong with having a high standard for starting pitchers?

Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer are no-doubt Hall of Famers, and holding other starters to that standards isn’t unfair.

Each had excellent ERAs and are in the top 20 in career strikeouts. Hamels and Hernández have intriguing cases, but don’t measure up.

Clarification: In Monday’s guide to Sarasota spring training, I neglected to note that the Mote Marine Laboratory, which had long been located on Longboat Key, has moved to a new location at the University Town Center near Interstate 75. Thanks to Kathy Hultquist and Michael Phillips for pointing that out. I’ve changed it in the post.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.