Is this the year Orioles lose a draft pick for signing a starter?

After an unprecedented four players accepted their team’s $22.05 million qualifying offers, free agency is underway

It’s conceivable that three of those players—Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, Milwaukee Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff and New York Yankees centerfielder Trent Grisham — could have interested the Orioles.

The fourth player was Detroit Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres.

Woodruff, who missed 2024 because of shoulder surgery, started 12 games in 2025. The Orioles already have two starting pitchers returning from injuries — Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, who combined for 10 starts in 2025 after elbow surgeries in June 2024 — without adding another. The Orioles traded Grayson Rodriguez, who hadn’t pitched since July 2024, on Tuesday night.

In MLBTradeRumors.com’s predictions of the salaries of the top 50 free agents, Grisham was estimated to get a four-year, $66 million deal. That would seem reasonable for the Orioles, especially for a player who set a career high with 34 home runs and an .811 OPS. Grisham is a left-handed hitter, and the Orioles already have Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser, and he hit only .182 against left-handers. Taylor Ward’s acquisition in the deal for Rodriguez helped balance the outfield, giving the Orioles a right-handed hitter who produced 36 home runs and 103 RBIs this past season.

As for starters, maybe Imanaga and Woodruff were far down on the Orioles’ wish list, but of the nine players who accepted the qualifying offer, six are pitchers.

Starters Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King, Ranger Suárez and Framber Valdez and reliever Edwin Diaz would all seem to interest the Orioles.

It seems if the Orioles are going to pay heavily for a pitcher, they’d look for a starter. MLBTR predicted that Diaz, who opted out of his contract with the New York Mets, could fetch four years at $82 million.

The Orioles haven’t made an investment like that for a free-agent starter, and there are some other relievers — Robert Suárez, Ryan Helsley and Kenley Jansen, among them — who could be had at a more reasonable price.

Suárez’s predicted contract is three years, $48 million, and Helsley’s is two years, $24 million. Jansen, who’s 38, wasn’t in their top 50.

Three attractive hitters — Bo Bichette, Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker — each rejected the qualifying offer, but it doesn’t seem likely the Orioles will bid on them.

Each of the five starters could appeal to the Orioles, and they might choose to spend more on them than they have on starters in the past. Last offseason, the Orioles gave $15 million to 41-year-old Charlie Morton and $13 million to 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals.

They’re not going to get starters who slot in between Bradish and Trevor Rogers on one-year contracts.

Ranger Súarez, Cease and Valdez are forecast to receive large contracts. Cease could get seven years, $189 million, Valdez, five years, $150 million and Suárez five years, $115 million. Gallen and King (both four years, $80 million) are seen as cheaper.

If the Orioles want any of these five starters, they’re going to have to do what president of baseball operations Mike Elias hasn’t done — surrender a draft choice to sign them. As a revenue-sharing recipient, the Orioles would lose their third-highest draft pick should they sign a player who rejected a QO.  If they sign two of those nine players, they’ll lose their third and fourth-highest draft picks.

If the Orioles are going to lose a draft pick for the first time since Elias took over seven years ago, they should play in the deeper pool and make a real attempt at Cease, Suárez or Valdez.

Gallen was 13-15 with a 4.83 ERA in 33 starts with Arizona while King, who missed three months with a shoulder injury, was 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 starts for San Diego.

In his three previous seasons, Gallen had much stronger performances for the Diamondbacks, but his 2025 could give the Orioles pause, particularly considering that they’ll be losing a draft pick.

There are other credible starters the Orioles could sign without losing a draft pick — Chris Bassit, Lucas Giolito or Zack Littell. They could also trade for one.

Without Rodriguez, the Orioles probably need to acquire at least two more starters to augment Bradish, Rogers, Wells, and Dean Kremer. They also have Cade Povich and Brandon Young as contenders.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.